Jack's Weather Report

8/14/23

By jack martin on Aug 14, 2023 at 04:10 PM

Good Monday morning,

It is straight up mid august, with typical hot monsoonal moisture out there.

If you look over the Bay Area you can see the monsoonal moisture moving east to west.

We don’t typically see this, but it looks like areas in Nor Cal will see some rain.

For us, nothing from this, only warmer weather this week through Wednesday
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=8,-115.7,4.21z/date=2023-08-13,23:30,-7

Look down into the Mexican waters. The tropical action is getting interesting, as a series of disturbances will be setting up for tropical storms over the next 10 day. Where these will drift is really not clear at this point, but if you are in the southwest monsoonal rains this time of year is reality.

It is interesting, because there has not been much Action on the East coast and Caribbean to date. I am sure this will happen in the next month or so.

Coming back west, this week will be non eventful for southern California coastal areas. Interiors will be hot, but coastal areas will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s. Valleys 90s and interior 100 +.

As we approach the weekend the models are not in agreement. They can not decide if some monsoonal moisture could affect LA or Ventura, but that to far out to care.

We will watch it for now, and have more to say the second half of the week.

In the mean time enjoy the mid summer weather. We are the lucky ones on the coast with the Pacific Ocean keeping temps manageable. A/C is not needed along the coast, nice lower 60s at night and 80 by day. A fan and an open door is your friend over night.

Have a great week and more to come,

Jack Martin

8/13/23

By jack martin on Aug 14, 2023 at 04:08 PM

Good Sunday morning,

I hope everyone is having a great weekend.

I thought I would start off the forecast with ocean temps. As typical as we get into the next few months ocean temps are on the rise in SB. It looks like we will see 67 degrees locally this week, with one stating 69 degrees.

To our south, lots of tropical action with plenty of disturbances moving to the west toward Hawaii. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/
These really are not affecting our weather.

This all segways into our upcoming El Niño season. As we get into fall the El Niño for this coming season strengthens and the odds of a very wet winter increases. With our lakes and reservoirs remaining almost full, it will not take much this year to put them over the top.
We still have 2 1/2 months before we typically see out first rain event, around Halloween. El Niño really starts to affect us in January and February, still 5 months away.

El Niño typically spells a very wet winter, so get prepared. Here is more casual reading for your Sunday
https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/climate/news/2023-07-13-el-nino-july-forecast-update-winter-noaa

For the upcoming week, not much excitement in the forecast. Cooler fog along the coast. Fog this morning is at 900 feet.

Temps will be mid 70s coastal to mid to upper 80s in the valleys.
As the work week arrives so does warmer temps especially in the valleys where the Mercury will climb into the upper 90s. Coastal a nice 80.
Lastly, since it is Sunday. Look to the skies tonight as meteor showers are most prevalent in the skies.

Have a great Sunday
Jack Martin

8/11/23

By jack martin on Aug 11, 2023 at 04:00 PM

Wow, that was crazy yesterday. Santa Barbara area was a bullseye for the rain and wet weather. The big winner was Carpentaria where they received 1/2 inch of rain, Santa Barbara was a close 2nd with .30 inches. All the other surrounding counties saw very little rain, except for us https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

Today we see and feel the change, it is foggy and cooler. Humidity is gone.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=36,-117.7,5.46z/date=2023-08-11,04:00,-7

Today still a very slight chance for showers, but this is LA and mountains. Here nothing to worry about.

The forecast for the weekend is looking non eventful with a slight warming trend.

Coastal fog and inland slightly warmer. A nice over all weekend which will range from 70s to 90.

Next week no excitement. Inland and valleys heat up again by mid week. Coastal we stay nice with some fog then upper 70s.

Now the excitement of the weekend will be the update on our upcoming wet El Niño year. Stay Tuned

Jack Martin

8/10/23

By jack martin on Aug 10, 2023 at 02:08 PM

Good Thursday morning,

Let the fun begin. If you’re still in bed sleeping in SB you might have been woken to the thunder and rain. At my house I heard the rain around 4:45 and then thunder. My weather station is telling me that lighting is 6 to 8 miles from my station here at home.

What’s in store for today? Well the tropical weather that we have been talking about all week is here.
The tropical clouds are now over point conception and moving right at us. It does look like we will see some rain this morning and more thunder showers into the afternoon.

Rain totals will be very spotty, if you are under a thunder storm it can be heavy. The official percentage for rain today is 40%, but at my house 100%. We will see what actually falls, but 1/10 to 1/4 is likely, with higher amounts in the mountains and below thunderstorms. Rain chances carry through today then we begin to dry up the atmosphere tonight. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=32,-134.2,4.66z

Friday looks to be dry, but still very slight possibility of rain.
Saturday into the week, we are looking for slightly warmer, but a dry non eventful period. No excitement beyond today.

Enjoy the show today, it looks like we are going to be damp to start your Thursday.

Have a great day,
Jack Martin

8/9/23

By jack martin on Aug 09, 2023 at 04:47 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

The burning question of the day, will we see any rain from the tropical system floating in the pacific? Let’s start by talking about this. You can see it spinning 350 miles southwest of LA. It is starting to pump moisture up from the south towards us.
(You can see it in the loop below)
https://zoom.earth/storms/eugene-2023/

Moisture in the clouds will increase through the day today and we can see some rain possibilities later this evening and best chance Thursday morning.

Now let’s not get to worked up over this, because the atmosphere is very dry at lower levels, rain that comes from the cloud base will evaporate before it hits the ground in many cases. So what does this all mean to us?
20% chance of rain later tonight, and best chance Thursday morning. How much?
Basically 1/4 of an inch or less. Now don't get me wrong, there is a chance for thunder showers, and where the rain could be much heavier, especially in some mountain areas, mainly to the south.

Rain chance drop way off the further north you go. Rain chances will likely stop at Santa Ynez.

Beyond the rain. Humidity will increase, but temps will drop. We will actually see cooler temps the next few days especially in the valleys and interiors.

For the weekend, Friday some left over moisture, but rain chances mostly go away.

The weekend will be in the 70s to 90s depending on where you live.

Overall a nice weekend, not as hot as it has been.

Next week a little warm up, nothing crazy adding 3 to 5 degrees to the air.

In the mean time, enjoy the tropical vacation coming to us. You don't need to go to Hawaii, or Mexico. Their weather is coming to us through our nice and cool Pacific Ocean, which is a nice 65 degrees today.

Have a great day,

Jack Martin

8/8/23

By jack martin on Aug 08, 2023 at 03:36 PM

Interesting weather for the next few days. There is what’s left of the tropical storm Eugene that will influence our weather through Thursday.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=32.2,-115.2,5.13z

Not much impact today, but Wednesday and Thursday we will see the greatest possibility for some rain.

Looks like today just cooler weather, and fog to start the day.

Tonight areas to the south could see some precipitation, but not here.

Wednesday starts the interesting part of the forecast and the best chance for us to see some rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

With systems like this it is always difficult on computer models, because we typically do not see subtropical moisture from the south.
Bottom line, water values will be elevated and the rain possibility is there from 20% to 30%. Really this can change at any moment, so watching the weather is important.

We will see how this plays out, but I will be very conservative in my approach with the possibility for rain.

Stay tuned, no rain likely today or over night, some dampness is possible only from fog at this point into Wednesday

Jack Martin

8/7/23

By jack martin on Aug 07, 2023 at 04:12 PM

Good Monday morning,

Here we are off and running into a new week.

Good news and interesting weather news:
1. Cooler weather through mid week, all areas will cool each day into Wednesday.
2. Subtropical moisture will arrive Tuesday night to the south and Wednesday night here. There will be a 25% to 30% chance for some light showers. We will see how this shapes up, but moisture and weather coming up from the south is difficult to predict.

It will become humid and feel more like East coast or tropical weather.
This week the cooling trend starts Tuesday with highs in the mid 80s in the valleys and mid 70s in SB. Cooler weather through the week with some fog along the coast. Temps this week overall will be below normal. All good for my guys on roofs.

Enjoy the week,

Jack Martin

8/6/23

By jack martin on Aug 07, 2023 at 04:10 PM

Good Sunday morning,
The last day of fiesta 2023. I might need to make an appearance downtown just for the fun of it.

The weather should be fantastic with highs in SB in the low 80s. Hot in the valleys close to 100 in Santa Ynez.

Next week we will cool slightly Monday, but still warm with summer August weather ahead of us. As mentioned earlier tropical storm Eugene is now right off the coast of Cabo, not doing much other than humid, hot and some rain. Wind speeds are only at 65 miles an hour which is only at tropical storm category. By Wednesday of next week the models show it turning into the Southern California coast, which could spark some rain, mainly to the south. This still will be watch, and a South swell is likely for you surfers.
https://zoom.earth/storms/eugene-2023/

In the mean time summer is in full swing, weather is warm to hot.
The days are becoming shorter, as I see the day light starting a little later each morning. The ocean temp is at 65 degrees, sunrise is 6:03 am and sunset 7:55 pm. Low tide today is at 743 am at a .06 which is fairly low. It might be a good morning for a beach walk with friends, family and or your doggy. Lake levels at still high at 96% at Cachuma so no water worries for some years to come. With another El Nino year coming we will only worry about too much water.
You are now up to date from all weather fronts, enjoy your Sunday, and a am going to take most of this day off work mode.

Enjoy your day and maybe me and Pearl will be at Hendry’s beach in an hour and a half for a beach swim for her.

Jack Martin

8/4/23

By jack martin on Aug 04, 2023 at 03:17 PM

Good Fiesta Friday morning,

Last night we had some northwest winds that warmed us up. At 8:30 it was still 79 degrees at my house.

Today we will transition back into heat in the valleys and interior as high pressure push towards us from Texas. As most of you are aware the southern states have had crazy heat this past month plus. Anything pushing west from that area means hotter weather.

This means hot weather for the weekend. Santa Barbara still nice with low 80s, but valleys in Santa Ynez will be upper 90s through the weekend, with Sunday being the hottest day. Almost 100. Interior valleys 105 to 110.

Monday we back off slightly, but still warm through the period. Not much relief in the heart of summertime in August especially for inland areas.

Down to the south towards Mexico, the satellite is getting interesting with lots of tropical Action brewing up. You can see all the activity out there on this graphic
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

For us, as we get further into next week, we could see some subtropical weather this way from remnants of Eugene. We will have to see how this drifts towards us. Any way you look at it, the tropical season in Mexico is starting up. Hot weather for them over the next 2 months with September always being the worst month for tropical weather and heat.

Enjoy your fiesta weekend. I will watch from the side lines, maybe a trip to De La Guerra or the new spot across from Leadbetter beach at city colleges lower parking lot.

Viva La Fiesta, enjoy the parade I will be at the office.

Jack Martin

8/2/23

By jack martin on Aug 02, 2023 at 04:36 PM

Good Wednesday Morning,

Viva La Fiesta day. It all starts today! Here is the schedule Events Calendar - Old Spanish Days | Fiesta Santa Barbara (sbfiesta.org)

As far as the weather goes, it is starting out perfect. A nice cool morning to start the day with the ocean A/C working to perfection. No actual AC needed in SB. 58 degrees to start our morning!

It does look like we will have 3 cooler days with highs in the upper 70s to 80 coastal and a nice mid 80s in the valleys. This will be a nice change to the heat the valleys have seen over the last few weeks.

On Saturday it all changes back to hot. 95 to 105 in the valleys. 110 in the interior and upper 80s coastal.

Sunday will be the hottest day of the weekend and weeks.

A cooling trend will start next week, along with a possibility of monsoonal moisture moving in. This will need to be watched, but in the mean time, nice cooler weather through Friday, then we heat up Saturday, especially in the valleys and interior through Monday.

Viva La fiesta

Jack Martin