Jack's Weather Report

2/28/24

By Jack Martin on Feb 29, 2024 at 07:35 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

It will be a great spring like day with sunny skies and highs close to 70 degrees.

Enjoy it while it lasts, because we turn back to winter weather for the later part of the week.

Thursday the off shore flow changes to onshore and fog and drizzle is likely Thursday morning.

Thursday night and Friday the next system arrives. It does look like rain on Friday now. Not a lot to start, but .15 is likely Friday.

Friday night and Saturday rain continues with total accumulation of .33 to 1 inch.

This is a cold storm with snow levels starting at 5000 feet and dropping much lower by Sunday.

Sunday maybe a few showers, windy and cold. Certainly not the weekend we had last weekend

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=29.5,-114.7,4z

Sunday and Monday will be dry, but a weak system rolls in Tuesday. Not a lot of rain and central coast will see some, but we will have to see if it gets this far south.

In the mean time, enjoy a great day. Thursday cooler with onshore flow fog and drizzle.

Friday light rain and rain (showery) Friday night and Saturday. 8 to 10 inches of snow with wind in the mountains.

Working quick this morning, got to get to Action 👍

Jack Martin

2/26/24

By jack martin on Feb 26, 2024 at 05:38 PM

Good Monday morning,

High clouds and a little rain this afternoon is the forecast for the day. This morning we are expecting dry conditions with some light rain starting around 3pm today into tonight. This is thanks to a cut-off low that has been spinning in the pacific for days. This will drift towards us today and bring 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch. Just enough to dampen the streets. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=27.1,-109.1,4z/date=2024-02-26,05:00,-8

Tuesday morning the rain is over and dry conditions through Thursday with another system arriving some time Friday and Saturday. This is colder and mountain snows are likely. Rain wise. .75 to 1 1/2 coastal and 1 to 3 inches in the mountains. A good system, but not crazy. Sunday will be wind and cold. Highs will only be around 60.

Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week with highs near 70s.

It was truly a great weekend in the Santa Ynez Valley.

Enjoy the little rain, then dry until Friday sometime. February is coming to a close and hopefully spring is right around the corner. Daylight savings starts March 10th and we will then see daylight into the 7pm hour.

Have a great week, bring an umbrella today if you melt with light rain 😃

Jack Martin

2/25/24

By jack martin on Feb 26, 2024 at 05:35 PM

Good Sunday morning,

What a fantastic Saturday it was, highs were in the mid-70s with sunshine for all.

It was great to be at Sunstone winery tasting wine with my daughters and grandkids.

If you have not been to Sunstone lately, they have upgraded the outdoor area, and it was packed. It is worth a trip to Santa Ynez.

Today will be cooler than Saturday highs in the mid to upper 60s with some high clouds overhead.

Monday will be cloudy with the system in the pacific pushing into the area Monday afternoon and some rain arriving late in the day and overnight.

This system however is quite weak with most areas only seeing 1/10 to ¼ inch of rain. The rain is over by Tuesday morning, and we will have 4 days of dry weather.

Friday afternoon into Friday night it looks like more rain will be back in the forecast. This will be a colder system and we will see good rainfall totals again.

Preliminary rain totals will be .75 to 1 ½ inches coastal and 1 to 3 inches in the mountains. Snow levels will be as low as 2500 feet with this system.

I hope everyone has a great Sunday. My plan is to go to the river this morning and take some photos of the water running from the mountains and Lake Cachuma.

Enjoy your Sunday.

Jack Martin

2/23/24

By jack martin on Feb 24, 2024 at 12:33 AM

Good Friday morning,

Warming trend today through the weekend is the focus of the forecast.

Highs will be In low 70s for most coastal and valley location with some high clouds streaming over us today. Overall we will see a great weekend.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=22.7,-109.6,4z

As you can see on the zoom satellite a low pressure system is out in the pacific 1000 miles west of SF. This will do nothing until Sunday evening, then it will move towards us. This appears to be weakening, rainfall Monday will likely be less and in the 1/10 to 1/2 range and it should be over by dawn Tuesday. This will not produce a lot of rain and that’s great news. We have more than a years worth as it is, and we still have 6 months left on our rain season.

With all the rain of late, we have not talked much about the day light. It is staying light now into the 6 pm hour and starting to bring daylight in the 6am hour. In late March we will see 12 hour days of daylight again and better yet, daylight savings returns on March 10th, just a few more weekends away 👏 .

Sunrise is now 6:35 am and sunset 5:49pm.

The equinox is March 19th and summer solstice June 20th.
Yes it is coming fast, and it can not be soon enough. I am ready for sunny days and warmth again, I am over the winter weather.

Lake Naciemento is at 85% now and all the other reservoirs 100%. T

The Santa Ynez river is a waterway, flowing heavy from the mountains and the dam releasing water. It is a site to see.

Santa Barbara has 198% of normal rainfall for the year and 136% above normal for the entire year and it is still February. Now that’s crazy ….

Enjoy the sunshine, I am going to Santa Ynez for the weekend and look at all the green hills and see the river flowing strong and maybe go to Sunstone for a little wine in the sunshine Saturday afternoon 😁
Enjoy your weekend, I will send some photos from the valley 👍

Jack Martin

2/22/24

By jack martin on Feb 22, 2024 at 04:32 PM

Good Thursday morning,

High pressure and off shore winds, with warmer temps is the forecast through the weekend.

Take a look at zoom earth and you will see our next weather system that is being held off by high pressure over us. This is just staying well out in the pacific for now and even moving more westerly for now

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=37.4,-107.7,4z
High pressure and warmer weather is the story through the period through Sunday.

The next weather system should roll in sometime Monday into Tuesday. Timing is still not clear or where it will track. For now it looks like 1/2 to 1 inch of rain Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. This clears out Tuesday afternoon.

This is a quick report, because I got to get to Action.

Enjoy a few days of drying and warmth.

Jack Martin

2/21/24

By jack martin on Feb 21, 2024 at 06:26 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

And it is a good morning because the rain is over for a few days.

Last night shortly after midnight I was awakened by the heavy rain at my house for the most part we received around a half an inch of rain in Santa Barbara, and less everywhere else.

The low is now moving east and the rain is over until Sunday night when the next storm arrives.

We will see four days of drying and warmer temperatures as we get into Thursday, Friday and Saturday of this week. It looks like the next system will come in later in the afternoon Sunday into Monday. This does not look like a big system and we will receive anywhere for 1/4 inch to 1 inch of rain at this point, depending on which model you’re reading. Bottom line with all the rain we have seen, we are way ahead of schedule. Just look at some of these facts. It’s amazing. Santa Barbara has received 196% of normal rainfall for the year to date and we are at 133% above normal rainfall for the year.

The entire county has received more rainfall to date than we received typically in an entire year that goes through the end of September of 2024. Not including what’s coming next week or will receive last night, because this was through 8 AM yesterday.

I think everybody agrees we all need a break. Let the water run out of the dirt into the streams and begin a dry out process
enjoy a few days of nice weather I know I will.

Jack Martin

2/20/24

By Sharon Fritz on Feb 20, 2024 at 06:59 PM

Wow, where do I start today with what has happened since Sunday afternoon and even the start of Saturday?

I can’t even remember back to Saturday when we saw that ¼ to ½ start to this storm. Remember when I called this storm an 8 out of 10 for February?

And a 10 out of 10 for another other storm, well I was wrong. This will be an 11 out of 10 when it is all said and done. Just look at these storm totals since Saturday

Montecito 7 inches, Santa Barbara 5 inches, San Marcas Pass 10.5 inches, KYTD tower 11.5 inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

And we are not done yet… The AR (atmospheric river) is just to the south of us, with still some light showers today. https://zoom.earth/

You can see the current radar showing most of the rain just south of us https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

Here are a few videos (attached San Ysidro creek ) on my YouTube channel toro creek 2/19/24 toro creek like rapidshttps://youtube.com/shorts/Kc7a7oJlRl4?si=6X_zxVQ26VL7gRSU

So what do we have to look forward to? Today will be relatively dry with some light showers, areas Santa Ynez north mostly dry today.

Tonight it starts back up again as the core of the low moves through. This will bring rain rates to 1 inch per hour and possibility of thunder and lighting and waterspouts.

Rain will be heavy at times, which with all the rain we have already had, everyone should stay away from creeks. There could be some flash flooding due to the down pours.

Rain will fall over night and into Wednesday morning. Rain should wrap up Wednesday around noon.

Thursday and Friday will be dry, also likely Saturday. Then the next system comes in Sunday into Monday night. This is not looking to be wild like this one, ½ to 1 inch of light to moderate rain, but it will keep us very wet into early next week. Then hopefully a break so we can all dry out.

Hang in there, one more round of heavy rain tonight. Then a break for a few days.

This will be a historical February rainfall; we will be talking about this year for many years to come.

That’s the fun for the day, now off to Action

Jack Martin

2/19/24

By jack martin on Feb 19, 2024 at 03:51 PM

Good Monday morning and Presidents’ Day,

For some, you get to sleep in and celebrate another day off that is on the books for schools, government and banks. I am a president of Action Roofing, but no day off for me. It will be another busy day with around 3 inches of rain overnight and 5 inches on the pass. Rain in Ventura and LA is just starting up where LA has seen very little and Ventura 1/3 of what we have seen. The atmospheric river is shifting south over Ventura, Oxnard and LA this morning. Rain here will lighten up a bit late morning with only some showers the rest of the day and even Tuesday during the daytime.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.18,-136.78,5.13z

Rain total have been impressive with 3 plus inches over night, with more rain to follow earlier this morning. Heavy rains are shifting into LA this morning, but they will not see as much as we saw overnight. Showers will continue but on and off through Tuesday day. Tuesday night the low pressure system open up and drifts through our area. This will bring the heaviest rain of the storm with thunder, lighting and a few tornados possible.

Wednesday mid day we clear up through Friday, with another system slated for the weekend. This looks to be lighter with 1/2 to 1 inch of rain.

The way this month has gone 1/2 to an 1inch is like a drizzle or light rain.

In the meantime daylight is coming earlier now, starting in the first half of the 6am hour. We will be able to see what effect the rains have had on our properties and neighborhoods. Here are some rain totals for the storm https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Here is the radar currently, you can see the heavier rain shifting south and lightening up here https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

Stay tuned, it is not over yet. Tuesday night will get real interesting again.

Showers until then.

Jack Martin

2/18/24 Evening Update

By Jack Martin on Feb 19, 2024 at 03:48 PM

Here I am watching the NBA All-Star game and waiting for the 7:30 update for the weather, but you can take a look at the Zoom Earth and see how active we are right now and will continue to be
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=37.4,-143.5,4.77z

But based on the last update, we’re looking at heavy rain overnight with a number of inches of rain, falling heavy at times.

The target area is Santa Barbara and Ventura. Los Angeles will stay relatively dry overnight until the early morning hours and then they will be the ones getting the atmospheric river on top of them.

Monday we will start to see a break or a pause because he got forever will be over Ventura and LA and they will see what we’re going to see overnight

Tomorrow for them will be quite crazy with heavy rain. Specially, during rush-hour traffic.

7:12 PM and I’m waiting for the update to come in in 20 minutes or so so I’ll finish this report at that point, but it does look like Santa Barbara will get the heaviest rain from 9 PM until tomorrow morning.

OK I give up I’ve been waiting for the 7:30 update is now 8 o’clock so I’m gonna give you the update. It’s gonna rain a lot.

Talk to you in the morning.

Jack Martin

2/18/24

By jack martin on Feb 18, 2024 at 11:25 PM

Good Sunday morning,

Just take a look at this comma shaped system. This a a classic west coast low pressure system that is wound up spinning tropical moisture our way. This is California version of a hurricane. It is 300 mile away from the central coast right now. Getting ready to start the Action later this afternoon on the central coast, to around dawn in LA.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.8,-122.4,4z/date=2024-02-18,00:20,-8

Yesterday the rain started, but it gave everyone 1/4 to 1/3 on an inch, which was spot on the predictions.

Today we will see a pause into the rain until mid afternoon before the real Action starts. This will bring us heavy rain tonight into Monday and really through Monday. Expect wind of 20 to 30 miles an hour with mountains up to 50 miles an hour. Rain rates have been updated and up graded to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour at the peak of the storm, with the storm last from 12 to 24 hours with heavier rain.
Rain totals of 2 to 5 inches coastal 4 to 8 inches foothills and mountains with up to 10 inches on south facing mountains. Yes this is the real deal. Very similar to the last system that we saw, except the ground is even more saturated. All the normal problems with heavy rains will exist from down trees, mud and land slides, power outages to flooding of creek and streams. It will get interesting.

The low pressure system will move very slowly south and is expected to pause over Ventura and LA later Monday afternoon or night. This will just pump more rain over those location.

Flash flood warnings are in effect in the burn areas and along all the creeks and stream.

Evacuation warning have gone out to all the typical locations, basically the same as the last system. Creeks, streams and burn areas.

Tuesday a pause in the rain, before the low opens up and moves through with heavy rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday late morning, the rain should come to an end, with dry days Thursday and Friday. However Saturday into Sunday it looks like more rain with February going out with a bang. Let’s hope that March will be drier. We are tapped out with all the rain in the past month.

Ok you have a little more time to prepare for the strongest part of the system.

It will be a good one.

Jack Martin