Jack's Weather Report

Good Monday morning, and Happy St Patrick’s day.

Today will very much be like an Ireland weather day. "Cool, chilly, drizzly and windy"

If you are from Ireland, you will feel right at home today. Today it does look like we will see some wetness.

I am not sure if I can call this rain, but in a technical term that’s what it is going to be, but the accumulation will be ¼ of an inch or less on the central coast.

Here in SB we were not sure if the system would make it around point conception, but now it does look like light rain or drizzle will make it all the way into Ventura.

LA will only see a 30 to 40% chance of rain. Here we are at 80%, but likely to be 1/10th of an inch only.

Behind the front, lots of winds from the north – northwest. Later today 60 mile an hour gusts are likely in the hills and quite wind on northwest facing locations. Here is the zoom earth precept graphic https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/#view=32.99,-113.3,5z/date=2025-03-17,18:00,-7/model=icon

Tuesday, we move back to sunny weather and no rain through at least the next week. There is a few weak systems that will pass through, but these are really about Nor Cal and should not or will not make it to us, other then wind. Bottom line a little light rain today, followed by wind. then Starting Tuesday nice spring weather for the rest of the week.

Happy St Patrick’s day, if you would melt from a little rain, I guess you can go to the Pub early.

Lastly Happy Birthday to my wife, born on St Patrick’s day Margaret Terese Molloy “now that’s Irish”

Have a nice day, regardless of your heritage 😊

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Some high clouds floating across the skies this morning, you can see them on zoom earth https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Today a nice day with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Just a nice spring day.

Monday a weak system to the north brings a 70% chance for rain on the central coast, but it falls apart as it rounds point conception reducing the chance of rain to 30% here and 1/10 of an inch only. The central coast will only see 1/10 to 1/4 inch.

The rest of the week we are looking dry, with any weather staying well to the North.

As we enter into the second half of March our heavier rain chances reduce.

Bottom line we will dry out and at least have a dry next 7 days after possible light rain Monday.

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

Great rain totals for a March storm this week and last night the winds howled as one front is replaced with another. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=32.34,-122.33,5.16z

Are you ready for more rain, well it is fast approaching and we will see the first half of the day with more rain. You can see it moving into SLO now and it will be here around 5am.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

Today we will see more rain totals. The computer models have inched the rain totals upward a little. It looks like 1/2 to 1 inch in north county and 1/3 to 2/3 in Santa Barbara coastal areas, then up to an inch in the mountains.

This is another cold system, but really lacks dynamics so rain rates will be on the lighter side lasting for 4 to 5 hours, with clearing by noon.

The weekend looks good with nice weather and warmer into Sunday, with some 70s in the forecast.

Monday, another weaker system will likely catch us with the tail end. Then dry weather for the rest of next week.

Don’t put away your umbrella or rain gear yet, enjoy more rain

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

The rain came down nice over night with 1 to 1.5 inches for all and 1.5 to 2 inches coastal in the last 24 hours and around 3.5 inches in the past 24 hours in the mountains. For March that’s a nice storm. Here are all the totals https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

This morning the heavy rain is passing through LA and south, and for us it is all about cooler weather and showers. We will see cool temps with the snow level to 3500 feet, and showers on and off. You will see it all today with wind, rain, sunshine, and possible heavy rain, with Hail possible. The bulk of the rain has fallen however, it is just about showers through tonight.

On Friday we will see another impulse that will drop ¼ to 1/3 more rain in our area and up to ½ inch in the hills Friday.

The weekend will begin a warmup both Saturday and especially Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Monday a weak system that appears to drop rain on the central coast only and light with 1/10 to ¼ of an inch. Here if any 1/10th.

Tuesday into next week we are looking at the return to nice weather, with warming and dry again.

Enjoy the pretty views today with clouds and clear skies after the rains here is the current radar https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Tuesday was quite a surprise with the rain total that climbed to a little over a ¼ of an inch yesterday morning. It did catch me and the national weather service off guard, but a stronger cell of rain drifted right up the coast and brought moderate rain for 2 hours Tuesday morning to SB. We had .30 and other areas around ¼ of an inch. The interesting part is normal wetter locations had less then 1/10 of an inch. Lake Cachuma only saw .006. Bottom line rain total yesterday varied from very little to 1/3 of an inch. It was a good thing to get more rain than I expected, but I got rather wet helping to load wood at Hayward Lumber. Sorry for all those that got wet and had no rain gear on hand, I was with you ☹.

Today we will not miss this one. As we have been talking about this day for the past 10 days. As we go to work you will see high clouds, but no rain till later in the day. Rain will start up very light anywhere from 10am to 2pm, but it will be lighter with no more than ¼ to ½ inch until late this evening.

Heavy rain will start up tonight and into Thursday. You can see it here and Zoom in on Santa Barbara or wherever you live locally. https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/#view=34.501715,-119.752453,9z/date=2025-03-12,15:00,-7/model=icon

Heavy rain will fall for around a 6-hour period as the cold air arrives tonight with rain rates of ½ inch to 1 inch per hour. Thunderstorms up to 1.5 inches per hour. rain totals have not changed for the past week as models have stayed consistent. Expect 1 to 2 inches coastal and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains. This does have a southerly component with some subtropical moisture. Bottom line it will be a very strong system for March. Rain should back off Thursday mid-morning turning to showers. Expect at least some flooding in areas with heavy rain.

There will be another weaker system on Friday, but as discussed this should stay primarily to the north and where it does affect us it will be lighter rain.

The weekend looks dry, but late Sunday night another weak system drops to the north, mainly affection northern California

Enjoy the damp day, lighter rain arrives likely after lunch. Don’t forget your rain gear or umbrella

It will pour overnight tonight.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

System #1 has arrived, but this system is the one that basically skirts south of us. This morning it is moving east towards San Diego.

If we see rain here in SB it will be 1/10th of an inch or less and by this afternoon it will be East of our area.

Wednesday the next system will move in, but not till the afternoon. You can see the rain predictions and timing with this map https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/#view=35.87,-121.24,5z/date=2025-03-11,08:20,-7/model=icon

Rain for us should start up Wednesday afternoon, somewhere in the 2pm hour. This will start out lighter but as we get into the overnight hours it will get quite active, as the colder unstable air arrives. Snow levels will be high until Thursday. Starting out at 8000 feet the dropping to 3500 feet on Thursday.

This is when the real Action arrives, with the cold air. We will see rain rates at ½ to ¾ inch per hour and 1 inch possible in the mountains. Totals of 1 to 2 inches coastal and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains. Some flooding is certainly possible with the heavier rains. Showers will continue into Friday morning then we will start to clear up with some sun peaking out most of the weekend.

Looking into our future it looks like a few more systems are on the horizon, but these will be more to the north, and what we will see will be the tail end and will not produce much, if any rain for us.

Bottom line we will have 1 more good rain, this rainy season there has been 2 significant systems so far and this will be the third.

We will see if any other significate systems show up, but it is not likely as we get into the month of April. As April is know for spring showers.

Enjoy the cool, damp morning, the real rain starts Wednesday afternoon.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

Wake up time came faster as daylight savings effects have not fully been felt. I still have a few clocks that are manual and need to be adjusted. Today you can see the nice looking low pressure system spinning over the pacific.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=49,-130.6,4z

Where it looks great, the track as advertised will continue off shore and to the south of us until it turns in later tonight. What this means is no rain today, just a few degrees of cooler weather. Tonight the rain chances start up from Santa Barbara to northern Baja. This will not be a big system for us, because it will be south of our area. We might see 1/10 to 1/4 inch tonight and over night. More rain will be LA and south with this one.

Onto Tuesday we are looking at a dry day with a slight ridge. Cooler temps but no rain.

Wednesday we will start to see the affects of the next system with clouds starting in. Rain chance are lower and will be light Wednesday day , but Wednesday night and Thursday this will be a good rain maker with 1 to 4 inches of rain. With rates of 1/2 inch per hour at its peak. Bottom line we will see a lot of rain Wednesday night and Thursday day. Later Thursday we see clearing, but still some light showers possible into Friday.

After this system we will see additional systems from the north, but these appear to be NorCal systems with maybe some light rain possible on Sunday. The real rain will be here Wednesday night and Friday, with some flooding possible.

Stay tuned,

Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

Changes are in the forecast as of this morning. It now looks like the system for Monday may just pass us to the west and drift south of us, leaving us with no rain. You can see the future action on zoom earth
https://zoom.earth/

Now let’s start with the present, then we will talk about next week, because it is all about the great weekend.

Today and Sunday we will see great weather. Highs in the 70s for all, with plenty of sunshine. As advertised it will be a chambers of commerce weekend, so get out there and enjoy it.

Sunday night into Monday the low pressure system advertised to bring us rain looks to move past us and rotate to the south, west of us. Where rain occurs it looks like it will be more over LA or San Diego. It is possible we will see little to no clouds if the track stays consistent. “ Stay tuned “

Tuesday the same, maybe some marine layer, but no rain likely.

Wednesday the next system approaches. This will be a strong system with lots of rain. Rain chances do startup in the morning to the north on Wednesday, but any rain that falls will be on the lighter side. It looks like the bulk of the rain will arrive over night Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring heavy rain for a 4 to 6 hour period.

Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches coastal and 2 to 4 inches in the hills. This system does also have a southern component to it which will feed the moisture to bring heavy rain and possible flooding. This next system will likely bring us the bulk of our rain for March. Beyond, if you believe the long range models, systems will start staying to the north in the Bay Area and we will see the typical spring winds, as we do every year.

Enjoy the weekend, and don’t forget spring forward tonight or early Sunday morning at 3am. You lose an hour of sleep, but gain an hour of daylight in the evening.

Have a great weekend

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

Chilly start to the day, but it will be a pleasant day and warmer weekend.

The storms this week were nice, but the rainfall totals were not as high as we would have liked. That’s all behind us now, so let’s look forward.

Today cool but nice with highs in the mid 60s

Saturday and Sunday will both be fantastic days with highs in the low 70s for most. Sunny skies and very spring like weather, this can Segway us into daylight savings that arrives in the early morning hours Sunday as you lose an hour of sleep but gain an hour of daylight in the evenings with day light into the 7pm hour 👏

Late Sunday night into Monday a quick shift in weather as rain returns. This next system, Monday into Tuesday, is playing tricks with the modeling, but as we get closer we will have a better idea if the rain totals decrease, because of a more southerly and westerly track. Right now we will call for 1/2 to 3/4 coastal and an inch in the mountains.

Rain into Tuesday at this point then dry Wednesday.

The next system hits on Thursday and where this is still a ways out models have been consistent that this will be a strong storm, with southerly winds and some subtropical moisture. 1 to 2 inches coastal and double on south facing mountains.

Bottom line we have a great 3 days ahead and especially the weekend.

Here is zoom earth precipitation models for the weekend and you can see the storm track is well to the north in the Seattle area
https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/#view=39.4,-97.9,4z/model=icon

Enjoy the great weekend, more rain and cooler temps are coming next week

Jack Martin

Good damp Wednesday morning,

Lighter rain will arrive shortly and last through most of the day. https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/#view=39.4,-97.9,4z/date=2025-03-05,03:10,-8/model=icon

The rain will be on the lighter side and 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch today.

There will be no southern support, so totals will be on the lighter side, as a matter-of-fact north winds will give us less overall rain then expected.

Rain will back off late this afternoon then we will have a lull in the action until the main front moves through later tonight and Thursday.

Rain will be showery in nature, and some downpours with ½ inch per hour is possible into Thursday afternoon.

Friday and through the weekend we will see dry weather with some warming Saturday and Sunday. Upper 60s coastal and low 70s in the valleys.

Monday more rain into Tuesday. This looks to be a light to moderate system. Dry Wednesday then another system Thursday, which could be the strongest of the group. Stay tuned as it looks like wet weather for the next 9 days, on and off.

Jack Martin