Jack's Weather Report

Good Thursday morning,

What a fantastic day it was on Wednesday. If you missed it for some reason, you have one more day before we go back to cooler and a pattern change.

Looking at zoom earth, you can see a low pressure system out in the pacific working its way towards the west coast.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

This system will be felt on Friday with temps 10 degrees less than today. This first system is also moisture starved, so chances of rain Friday night and Saturday are 10 to 20% only.

On Sunday into Monday it gets more interesting. The low that is rolling in late Friday and Saturday will cut off and give us a cut-off low. Yes these get tricky to track there movement and intensity. At this point we do expect some rain Sunday into Monday, but 1/2 inch or less. However remember cut-off lows are like 2 year old kids, you never know where they will roam.

There is a 3rd system that will deliver us rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system is likely to bring us a decent rain with upwards of 1 inch of rain.

After the midweek system long range models indicate another stronger system between 8th to 10th of march. We will need to watch how this all tracks, but needless to say the rainy season is not over and we will be seeing how much wet stuff the month of March brings us.
Just a quick recap, because I love cliff notes.

1. Today, enjoy the last fantastic sunny day with 70s and 80s
2. Friday cooler by 10 degrees
3. Saturday cooler, with a slight chance of rain
4. Sunday and Sunday night, watch my updates to see where the 2 year old is wondering too, but we will see some rain
5. Monday into Tuesday slight chance for rain, but cooler and not much
6. Tuesday night and Wednesday a good system will bring us all rain
7. Late next weekend a bigger system can cause heavier rain, stay tuned
8. The best news of all. 3am Sunday the 9th of march we turn our clocks forward and we get daylight into the 7pm hour.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

We have been advertising this day for a week now, and you will not be disappointed. Today will be the warmest day of the year to date and it will likely be a while before we see it again. With some records to be broken today. So, let’s get to it ….

Today will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s, with some 90s sprinkled in. Starting off the day it is warmer in SB at 54 degrees and cool 37 in Santa Ynez but warming to 86 degrees today.

This is all due to offshore winds and a dome of high pressure https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=35.3,-126.8,4z

The fantastic weather will begin to back off Thursday with highs 10 degrees less, but the real change will be Friday when we change to onshore flow, and we can even see some fog or drizzle in the morning. Cold air dives into the area and highs along the coast will only be in the upper 50s.

Saturday a bare ridge will be upon us, but short lived and Sunday brings us a chance for rain, now don’t get too excited because this will be a very weak system with no more than ¼ to ½ inch of rain. (we will take anything at this point, so we are so far behind)

Next week will start with partly cloudy weather and another system arriving mid-week on Tuesday or Wednesday. This system looks to be a little stronger with up to 1 inch of rain. These are not big systems, but as mentioned we will take what we get at this point.

Looking way into the future the long-range models do show a possibility of a good system coming in around the 10th of March.

My goodness, can you believe that that March is just a few days away.

In the meantime, we need to focus on the present … Today will be what we call a Chambers of Commerce day, with just incredible weather.

Enjoy this great day, start your day early, so you might be able to enjoy the outdoors later in the afternoon and evening.

Daylight hangs around now into the 6pm hour.

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

Where it is February by date, our weather the next week will feel like August.

You can call this whatever you want, but we will be treated with fantastic weather for at least the next 6 days.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.02975463867186&lat=34.601563177240905

Today off shore winds will create a mild Santa Ana event and warm us up.

It looks like all areas will see highs of 72 to 80 degrees. Right now it is chilly in the Santa Ynez valley at 37 degrees, but expect a 45 degree rise in temps today.

Saturday warmer and the same for Sunday. 80 plus is likely in most locations.

Next week high pressure breaks down Monday then ramps back up Tuesday and Wednesday. The national weather service forecast shows downtown LA with 90 to 98 degrees… that’s crazy to see even 90 in February, but more is nuts.

Enjoy the summer time weather

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

I have a forecast that everyone is going to love after some winds today.

First of all go to your closets, and find your summer attire.
No you do not need a suitcase for a trip to Mexico Because there weather will be here this weekend and into early next week.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Now for the details, High pressure off shore winds are going to bring temps 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Each day we will get warmer starting Friday and last into Monday. We will see mid 70s starting Friday then warming into the low 80s on Sunday and Monday ….. Now get this!! Some areas like Woodland Hills might see low 90s.

I know that’s not what we expect in February, but we will enjoy a few days of it.

The only sad part of the forecast is we are still way behind on our rain totals with only 2 good storms this year. Worst of all there is likely no rain for the rest of February and into early March. At this point we are 3 to 6 inches behind normal and climbing since there is no rain in the forecast.

Let’s hope for a March miracle, if you remember 1995 like I do we had 17 inches of rain in 1 month after an extremely dry rainy season. (Am I dating my age ? ,remembering 30 years ago ) 😂
We will not even discuss the lack of rain until the hot weather is behind us.

All you need to know is get ahead of the curve and get ready for an incredibly warm next 4 days.

Enjoy, and don’t forget sunscreen and a hat. Your skin is not ready for this yet.

Our forecast is great compared to all those poor freezing soles in the Midwest and east coast with snow storms and below 0 temps. By the way you have my permission to call, text, or email family and friends in those area with our weather.

Have a great weekend, the beaches will likely be quite busy ….

Enjoy,

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

After being gone most of last week in North Carolina and Phila
(it was snowing Saturday afternoon when I left Phila) it is great to be back in California!

Yesterday I was sitting on my deck loving the warm temps and the birds chirping. Feeling like spring is getting closer, And this is how we eegway into this weeks’s forecast.

You are going to love the weather this week, because it will be spring like. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast, valleys will even approach 80 degrees later in the week.

East coast folks will be in heaven if they come west for this week
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=193&y=118&site=lox&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=193&map_y=118

Enjoy the great weather, there is no rain for the next week and maybe the rest of the month

Jack Martin

Happy Valentines day,

I am sure you will be waking up to look outside and see how wet it is. Well, the good news is the rain event is over and the sunshine will prevail again.

The rain total for the week added up to be a nice system, with Montecito seeing 3.5 inches, Santa Barbara almost 3 inches, the San Marcos pass 5.5 inches

Here is the total for all areas https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today, some pretty clouds over the mountains this morning with a very slight chance of rain https://radar.weather.gov/station/kvtx/standard

Post frontal winds will affect some areas. Other than the winds, the sun will return, and warming will occur into the low 60s. Lows in Santa Barbara will be in the 40s as we enter the weekend, we will begin a warmup for all, with no rain for the next week. The Santa Ynez valley will even get into the 70s, but colder nights in the 30s. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.05268859025091&lat=34.61297222581541

Each day into next week will warm up through Wednesday and Santa Barbara will even see upper 60 to 70, and the valley 5 degrees warmer than the coast.

Overall, a great week ahead. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.62902805209158&lat=34.46744809901955

I hope everyone has a great Valentine’s day and I want to wish my wife a happy Valentine’s day from 2500 miles away. I will make it up when I get home.

My brother and I just landed in Phila after being at a conference all week in north Carolina. No, we are not going to the Eagles Superbowl parade, which is today, but my brother and I were joking about all the Eagle fans will be drinking and Valentine’s day for their spouses will be skipped because of their over celebrations. 25 degrees here and a high of 33 degrees. Now that’s cold and I am looking forward to coming back west.

Have a great weekend, see you next week. No more traveling for me for a few months.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

It is game on time. Rain followed by heavy rain after 10 am. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

As you wake up the rain is here, the heavy rain is just to the northwest off shore. https://zoom.earth/

It is going to be a wild day of heavy rain, Santa Barbara will see near 3 inches of rain, and the mountains will see 3 to 6 inches.

This is all about a strong winter storm and a atmospheric river supplying the rain.

As you can see outside the rain is coming at a light to moderate rate. so far .50 to .75 along the coast and 1.5 on the San Marcos pass.

The heavier rains will arrive after 10am and continue into tonight. The system has sped up around 3 hours with the heavies rain arriving sooner than expected yesterday.

Heavy rain will occur into tonight before backing off around midnight. This storm will be different from last week, because all the rain will come quicker and much heavier. Rain will be heavy at rates during the periods of ½ to 1 inch per hour. Because of the longer duration some flooding is likely and burn areas will be a mess. With flooding and mud flow possible.

Friday we still see a chance for showers, but it will be clearing out. Rain will end in the morning followed by clearing.

Looks like the weekend will bring some fog, but no rain. Next week through at least Wednesday we will see sun and dry with highs in the mid-60s.

Hang in there, it will be a wild day at Action Roofing.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

The rain has arrived, however, today the rain will be light likely in the range of a quarter of an inch in total, and if you look at the satellite, it’s interesting because the weather is coming down from the north west, which is pretty much advantageous for very little rainfall in Santa Barbara.

https://zoom.earth/

The real rain starts up overnight tonight, through midnight tomorrow, and it will be a 24 hour period where we will see light to moderate rain. Then Thursday afternoon into the evening is when the dynamics of the system are strongest and we can see heavier rain and minor flooding in areas.

Rain totals are still on track. 1 to 3 inches coastal 3 to 6 inches in the mountains. Santa Barbara coastal areas should see the higher end of the 1 to 3 inches at about 3 inches of rain in total. Rain will be moderate, but not too heavy until the main front moves through late Thursday and then the intensity picks up. however, with the rain persisting for a 24 hour period we still will get good totals.

Looks like Friday morning we have some showers but then dries out through the weekend into next week except for low clouds and fog. Nothing exciting.

I guess the rainy season has finally arrived, and the system should allow water flow into some of our reservoirs since the Earth got pretty damp last week during the rains.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Sorry for the late report, I had to fly to North Carolina for a conference on a red eye last night and I had to catch up on some 💤

So let’s get right down to business.

Today calm, no real excitement. Time to get ready for the next round of storms.

Tonight a weaker system moves in over night which will bring some lighter rain Wednesday, earlier in the morning. Looks like around 1/4 to 1/2 for the start.

Wednesday afternoon a lull in the rain, then it picks up again Wednesday night.

Thursday, rain and plenty of it. Heaviest rain will occur Thursday and Thursday night.

It will be heavy at times, and under thunder storm areas 1 inch per hour is possible, but for the most part rain will be 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour. Bottom line we will get plenty of rain Wednesday through Friday morning. Santa Barbara 3.5 mountains 3 to 6 inches Here are the totals for the storm
https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Rain will tapper off Friday during the day. This system will be a classic winter storm with good moisture support and a mild atmospheric river.

The ground after last week’s systems is now saturated so we will see good run off.

Flooding is possible especially in the burn areas.

Friday afternoon we clear out the rain, then we look at dry through at least Tuesday of next week.

This week's rains will bring much higher rain total than the last system and this will also be a stronger wind event.

Get ready, it will be a busy second half of the work week

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

It is going to be another very wet week, with potential heavy rains on Thursday that could produce 1 inch per hour rain fall. Here is zoom earth setting up the excitement
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

For the short term, we have 2 days of dry weather then it all changes on Wednesday.

It looks like a slight chance overnight Tuesday, but the rain will arrive sometime Wednesday. This week’s rain will come in 2 phases.
Wednesday will be colder air and rain will likely be 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch.

It looks like we will see a break on Wednesday night, but the big rains will arrive on Thursday and Friday. This will be a warmer and wetter system with our famous atmospheric river fueling the rains. Rain will be heavy at times and in a 2 day period we can see 2 to 4 more inches. Rain rates with 1 inch per hour can make flooding and debris flow likely in the burn areas, similar to what we had in 2018, but not here, in the fire areas south of us. This will also be windy with the low spinning counterclockwise pulling the subtropical jet from the southeast and dumping more rain on south facing mountains.

It is going to be an interesting period to watch so stay tuned for updates.

The short term models will come out on Tuesday and we will define the track better.

Bottom line, cooler weather this week. Highs in the lower 60s then rain Wednesday, followed by heavy rains on Thursday into Friday.

Stay tuned, it will be an interesting week

Jack Martin