Jack's Weather Report

2/7/24

By jack martin on Feb 07, 2024 at 08:15 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

It is Wednesday right?? I have lost track of the days because I have worked every day for the last 12.

The rain has been just nuts for the past 10 days and it is not over yet. check this out.

This is done really well and shows how LA area really got hammered but came out of the rains with minimal problems. (you need a spare 10 minutes)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efbLZC55rQE

Take a look at the rain percentages for the year, season to date and the lake levels.

Santa Barbara is now 101% for the entire year of rainfall. 183% year to date.

Lakes are full … and they are opening the dams

https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

What’s happening today? When will the rain be back?

Today, like most of this week so far, it will be mostly dry with just a few showers possible during the day.

It is chilly out there with snow levels at 4000 feet and some snow on the grape vine today.

Tonight another system will bring us more rain. Rain will start up late in the afternoon in SLO then come through our area overnight. Rain totals of another ½ inch

This will move fast and will be mostly over by Thursday sunrise, some showers are possible into Friday morning.

Here it is approaching the bay area now https://zoom.earth/

The weekend and into next week we will get a break, through Tuesday at this point. Models show another system later in the week next.

El Nino continues and this has been a special February, so far with crazy rain totals.

One interesting news story I heard today while typing this report... This weekend is the 60th anniversary of the Beatles first shows on Ed Sullivan in 1964, 60 years ago.

71 million people tuned in to watch them play that night.

If you don’t know Ed Sullivan, he had the best variety show in the 60s and 70s. Everyone tuned in back in the day to watch him on Sunday nights.

I remember watching this all the time when I was a kid. Not that I wanted to at the time. I had no choice because all the adults watch the black and white 25-inch console TV Sunday nights.

It was Lawrence Welk then Ed Sullivan as I remember it .. (25-inch TV was huge at that time)

Am I dating myself? 😊 oh well …. That’s fine …

https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&ei=UTF-8&p=ed+sullivan+show+beatles+first+appearance&type=E211US739G0#id=1&vid=b339b8832b46867dfb18d9723c56e5bf&action=click

Have a great day as always, hope I brighten your day a little, with my humor.

Jack Martin

2/6/24

By jack martin on Feb 06, 2024 at 06:22 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

The crazy rain totals just keep climbing as we are now entering into day 8 since the rains began. It is not like the 40 days and 40 nights when Noah’s arch was stated, but it is beginning to feel like it.

Santa Barbara areas in the last 12 hours has received over another inch of additional rain 24 hours almost 2 inches. San Marcos pass 2.45in. Just crazy rain total for this storm, and it is not over yet. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Los angles and San Diego have been getting hammered over the last 24 hours with 10 inches and 15 inches in 48 hours in some locations. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMLOS

The only good news is the heavy steady rain is now moving out and it will just turn to showers.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=22.9,-109,4z

Today rain continues, but on the lighter side with just showers.

Showers will slow as the day goes on, but Wednesday more light rain as 1 more system brings around 1/4 inch of light rain, posing no real threat but more light rain. In fact there is a slight chance for showers into Friday.

The weekend looks to finally put the rain behind us with dry weather and 60s Saturday and Sunday. Then most likely into Monday also.

Current radar still shows rain in the LA area https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

This has been just nuts with all the rain in the past 8 days.
El Niño lives in California. When it rains it pours here.

Hang in there, we are on the back side now. I would say see you in the trenches, but they are filled with water right now.

Stay dry.

Jack Martin

2/4/24

By Jack Martin on Feb 06, 2024 at 06:19 PM

Good Monday morning,

What a crazy Sunday, just wild weather after a slower start to the storm. As everyone is aware it was wild around 1pm and the winds and rains were just nuts.

Trees were dropping from the winds all over town, and the flooding was just nuts. I have lots of videos I made in my adventures. I am glad I drive a 4-wheel drive truck.

I was out in the craziness doing what we could to protect homes from water leaking in. I compare days like Sunday to, you turned your home on its side and the rain would flow into it. The wind gusts were 60 miles an hour from the southeast and rain rates were ½ to 1 inch per hour. The freeways did as good as they could. The airport did close from the craziness and flooded runways.

All in all we held up pretty good at creeks and rivers, it was crazy, and water piled up in the flood areas downtown. All the water made small lakes around Salsupudas.

(do you know what that means in Spanish “get out if you can “) it was indeed crazy down there, the area around my office was filed with water for the entire block of Cota and Salsupudas. At least my office was 6 inches above the water line. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=42.5,-99.9,4z/date=2024-02-05,03:40,-8

Today all the rain has shifted into LA area with lots of rain falling there. For us we will see a mostly dry day with just a few showers possible, and with rain returning tonight as the front passes through.

We have received incredible amounts of rain in a short period of time. Most of us saw 4 inches in a 12-hour period and San Marcos pass over 5 inches. storm totals for the past week are just crazy numbers, with well over 10 inches to 15 inches so far. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

As mentioned earlier today mostly dry with all the rain in the LA south areas where they will see a few inches of rain https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

Rain will return tonight for us as the front and unstable air passes through. Snow levels will drop to 6000 feet then to 5000 feet Tuesday.

Rain ends Tuesday and we begin the dry out period. The extended forecast is still not real clear, with a chance of rain later in the week, but it should be on the lighter side.

More on that to come on Tuesday’s forecast.

As we all know the ground is saturated and all the lakes are now going to be full. I am good with rain now, please bring on summer ☹

Ok off to the office and mop up the fun from yesterday.

Jack Martin

2/3/24

By Jack Martin on Feb 06, 2024 at 06:12 PM

Good Saturday morning,

Ok here we go. You know it is going to be interesting when the schools have already Announced they will be closed on Monday. This reminds me of when I lived in Phila as a kid and we would hover by the radio in the morning and listen to see if the snow closed the schools for the day. It is funny to hear the same thing all these years later in California for Rain 🤔😂 before it even happens

As everyone is aware my now, we are going to see 2 more, back to back low pressure systems affect us though Tuesday of next week. These 2 events on top of the rains that we have had this week which has saturated the soils. Heavy run off is expected.

Now let’s try to spell out the forecast.

We have really 2 low pressure systems that will create rain late today, one which is a warmer front coming more westerly today, then Monday and Tuesday coming from the north.

Both of these will bring us heavy rain with a very large accumulation.

Here is how it looks from the sky right now https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34,-113.2,4z

Today will be mostly dry, then rain chances start up after 4pm. The heaviest rain will be Sunday into Tuesday

Tonight rain will fall heavy after midnight all the way through Sunday night with subtropical moisture feeding it.

On Monday, system 2. a colder one drops down and stalls over us pumping in subtropical moisture bring us more heavy rain through Tuesday.

You can see this from the graphic below when the heaviest rain will fall.

How much rain will fall and how it will affect us? Let’s talk about the rain …

3 to 6 inches coastal through Monday 6 to 12 inches in the mountains.

South facing mountains (us) much more. It is possible we could see 8 inches along the coast and foothills and 15 inches on south facing mountains.

It will be quite windy, winds last night blew hard from the north west, today later this afternoon they will shift to the southeast setting up our Pineapple Express, or atmospheric river or what ever you want to call it. winds tonight in the mountains will be 60 mils and hour from the southeast.

Rain heavy overnight and all the way through Sunday, with plenty of wind

Snow levels drop on Monday and lots of snow will fall in resort areas.

Rains will end Tuesday night, with another weaker storm possible late next week.

Regarding flooding and Evacuations.

The only area with evacuations in process is the burn areas near Gaviota.

Here nothing at this point, but I was at Westmont College yesterday and the creeks were running hard with no rain. You can only imagine what a few days of heavy rain will do to creeks, streams and rivers. It will get interesting.

They are comparing this event to Jan 9th 2023. That was wild because I was in the heart of montecito trying to cover roofs. Creeks were roaring. Hotsprings and Olivemill rd the water was running over its banks onto Olivemill rd.

All creeks will be tested to their maximum. If i lived next to a creek Saturday and Sunday night in Montecito especially I would be staying elsewhere.

The hills are more stable since the shrubs and grasses have grown back. Montecito will learn why you have boulders in your yards. Just look at the mountains above, you can see them quite well, some will come down.

My best advice, stay tuned. I will up date as I can.

There will be likely power outages.

I am glad to say I have solar and back up batteries to power my homes when the electricity goes out. Enjoy the ride, that’s it for now more to follow.

Jack Martin

2/2/24

By jack martin on Feb 02, 2024 at 06:00 PM

Good Friday morning,

Where do I start today?

The first of 2 strong storm systems has passed through leaving us with impressive rain totals for a 24 hour period. Summarizing quickly, everyone saw 3 inches of rain. San Marcos pass 6.32 inches. The Santa Barbara area got hit the hardest.
Here are the local numbers.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today, we will see some north winds and a few passing showers. Really nothing to be cautious of, maybe a few mountain showers.

Looking ahead the big news is all about the next storm system. The grounds are saturated and the second system is right on the heels of yesterday’s system.

If you look closely at the forecast you will see that the timing of the rains start time has moved up by 12 to 24 hours. It does appear we will be mostly dry today and daylight hours on Saturday, but rain will move in Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday. This second system is looking very powerful and long lasting. Some models show showers into Wednesday or Thursday morning. The main event starts Sunday morning and lasts into Tuesday. There is a lot of subtropical moisture and a low pressure system that is predicted to stall over us and pump in the moisture for up to 2 days. With the saturated ground and rain rates of a steady 1/2 inch or more per hour it is going to make flooding in low-living areas likely.

Updated rain totals have not come out today, but as of yesterday they were talking about 3 to 6 inches coastal and foothills. 6 to 12 inches in the mountains and a 30% to 50% chance that coastal areas of south facing hills (us) could see 8 inches of rain and mountains 15 inches. These number were from yesterday and I will wait for the updated numbers, but this system is looking to be the Holy grail of storms for the year.

There will be significant flooding along some creeks and rivers. At this point there is a 25% chance that the Ventura and Santa Ynez rivers will reach flood stages. A Significant rise in level will occur and don’t be stupid to try white water rafting. You laugh, but some folks will.

Regarding Montecito and the heavy rains. I have received a number of calls at this point. It is still too early to know how much impact there will be, but small stream flooding is likely and everyone should keep an eye on the forecast Sunday though Monday.

This is when the heaviest rain will fall. I will update on a regular basis Sunday and Monday.

Get prepared because you have 2 daylight days before a lot of rain falls, especially if you live in low lying areas.

More to come, we will be making the national news

Jack Martin

2/2/24

By Jack Martin on Feb 02, 2024 at 06:00 PM

Good Friday morning, 

Where do I start today? 

The first of 2 strong storm systems has passed through leaving us with impressive rain totals for a 24-hour period. Summarizing quickly, everyone saw 3 inches of rain. San Marcos pass 6.32 inches. The Santa Barbara area was hit the hardest.

Here are the local numbers.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today we will see some north winds and a few passing showers. Nothing to be cautious of, maybe a few mountain showers.

Looking ahead the big news is all about the next storm system. The grounds are saturated and the second system is right on the heels of yesterday’s system. 

If you look closely at the forecast you will see that the timing of the rains starting has moved up by 12 to 24 hours. It does appear we will be mostly dry today and daylight hours on Saturday, but rain will move in Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday. This second system looks very powerful and long-lasting. Some models show showers into Wednesday or Thursday morning. The main event starts Sunday morning and lasts into Tuesday. There is a lot of subtropical moisture and a low-pressure system that is predicted to stall over us and pump in the moisture for up to 2 days. With the saturated ground and rain rates of a steady 1/2 inch or more per hour, it is going to make flooding of low-living areas likely.

Updated rain totals have not come out today, but as of yesterday, they were talking about 3 to 6 inches in coastal and foothills, 6 to 12 inches in the mountains, and a 30% to 50% chance that coastal areas of south-facing hills (us) could see 8 inches of rain and mountains 15 inches. These numbers were from yesterday and I will wait for the updated numbers, but this system is looking to be the Holly grail of storms for the year. There will be significant flooding along some creeks and rivers. At this point, there is a 25% chance that the Ventura, and Santa Ynez rivers will reach flood stages. A  Significant rise in level will occur and don’t be stupid to try white water rafting. You laugh, but some folks will. 

Regarding Montecito and the heavy rains. I have received a number of calls at this point. It is still too early to know how much impact there will be, but small stream flooding is likely and everyone should keep an eye on the forecast Sunday through Monday. This is when the heaviest rain will fall. I will update on a regular basis on Sunday and Monday. 

Get prepared because you have  2 daylight days before a lot of rain falls, especially if you live in low-lying areas.

More to come, we will be making the national news 

Jack Martin

2/1/24

By jack martin on Feb 01, 2024 at 07:24 PM

Good Thursday morning,

Welcome to February, the wettest month of the year.

We are certainly starting off with very wet weather. Where the rain duration was not very long, we did see some great totals in a short period of time. The Santa Barbara area over night saw 2 plus inches for all and 3.5 inches in the hills. The San Marcus Pass has seen almost 5 inches, Montecito 2.5 inches. The subtropical jet is now moving south of our area, so the heavy rain will come to an end in the next 2 hours
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.42,-113.62,5.31z/date=2024-02-01,03:20,-8

The winds also have been a big factor, with a large tree down on Carrillo hill. Stay away from that area this morning.

As I mentioned the heaviest part of the first storm system is almost over. Rain rates were 1/4 to 1/2 per hour through the night with strong south winds. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

For the rest of the day, heavy rains will turn to showers shortly, but for the most part dry with just some showers lingering.

Friday and Saturday will be dry, but the next system rolls in Saturday night into Sunday.

This next system will bring double what the first system brought us over night and last 24 to 48 hours with moderate to heavy rain at times.

The next system will have subtropical support and spin down the coast and stall near us pumping in the subtropical moisture for a much longer period of time. All the models agree this will be the strongest system of 2024 and accumulations of 2 to 4 inches coastal 4 to 8 inches mountains and more on south faces (us).

Of course, we will need to watch this. Systems like this in the past have really created long lasting rains for days, which can result in flooding. This will be one to watch as it gets closer.

Stay tuned, dry for a few days then watch out for this next one.

Jack Martin

1/31/24

By jack martin on Jan 31, 2024 at 04:36 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

Last day of January, and the last dry day for a while.

Are you ready for some extremely wet weather? Ready or not here it comes.

Today, nothing exciting until late in the day and then it quickly changes with the first system showing up tonight and overnight.

This is a good system with some subtropical moisture to support it, but the longevity of the storm will only be 6 to 8 hours.
https://zoom.earth/

Rain will start up overnight and rain into the afternoon Thursday.

Rainfall will be 1 to 2 inches coastal, 2 to 4 inches in the mountains, and 5 inches or so on south faces. This will also be a windy storm with South winds coming up this afternoon in the hills, blowing 30 to 40 miles an hour.

Thursday afternoon turns to showers and we actually have a chance of showers through Friday.

Friday and Saturday, a weak ridge set up will still give us some light showers but the most part dry and cold.

Sunday, the next storm comes to play. This is going to be the strongest storm of the season, we could see 2 to 3 days of steady rain. We’re looking at 2 to 4 inches along the coast, and 4 to 8 inches in the hills. Yes, this one will be a doozy.

Exact timing and longevity is still to be decided, but it will have good subtropical, tap and the low will spin pumping in the moisture for a number of days.

This will be the biggest storm of the 2024 equaling the late December storm.

Sounds like it might be a busy day for me today. Enjoy the last day of dryness because it’s gonna be wet for the next week.

Jack Martin

1/30/24

By jack martin on Jan 30, 2024 at 05:05 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

The party is almost over and the great weather will come to an end. I hope everyone enjoyed the tropical vacation in Santa Barbara.

Today will be the last day with 70s as highs, before our weather takes a turn for the worst. As you can see high clouds will start in as high pressure has moved East.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.8,-119.4,4z

Today will be a nice warm day, with highs in the lower 70s. Still 5 plus degrees above normal for this time of year.

Wednesday the Pacific Northwest low moves towards us. Rain will start up Wednesday night in SLO then move south arriving in LA right at rush hour in the morning. This will result in a messy drive in LA traffic.

Expect a mild atmospheric river, which means we will see only 4 to 8 hours of moderate to heavy rain. Expect 1 to 3 inches along SB. 3 to 5 inches in the mountains from just the first system. Highs only in the 60s snow level 6000 feet.

Thursday the snow levels drop to 4000 feet and some grapevine snow is possible.

We stay in northwest flow with some showers possible through Friday.

Saturday looks like a transition day before another system Sunday into Tuesday.

Yes, this one looks to be a good one with 24 to 48 hours of moderate rain. Intensity and the duration of this second system is still in question, but it might be a good one.

Bottom line, the party is over for now, get ready for a bunch of rain.

Have a great day, it will be the last nice day for awhile.

Jack Martin

1/29/24

By jack martin on Jan 29, 2024 at 05:35 PM

Good Monday morning,

No I was not sleeping in... It's just been a busy morning, but my weather groups are never to be forgotten.

Today the continued summer weather will be upon us with upper 70s to 80 degrees.

Tuesday more of the same, but high pressure begins to move east.

Wednesday the first system to bring us rain will begin to move in. rain Wednesday night in SLO, then drop to us early Thursday morning.

Thursday will be a wet day; we are looking at a good system with lots of moisture to mix with the low-pressure system. This will bring us rain into Friday.

We are looking at 1 to 2.5 coastal, 2 to 4 inches in the mountains and 5 or more on south faces. (Yep, a good rain) with rates per hour from 1/3 to ¾ inch at times.

Looks like drier Saturday before rain moves in again Sunday.

Looking into the long-range models we will see rain into mid-February.

Enjoy the great weather the next 2 days, then winter returns. Snow levels will start out at 6000 to 6500 feet and drop to 3000 on Friday. This is a colder storm.

Jack Martin