Jack's Weather Report

Happy Valentines day,

I am sure you will be waking up to look outside and see how wet it is. Well, the good news is the rain event is over and the sunshine will prevail again.

The rain total for the week added up to be a nice system, with Montecito seeing 3.5 inches, Santa Barbara almost 3 inches, the San Marcos pass 5.5 inches

Here is the total for all areas https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today, some pretty clouds over the mountains this morning with a very slight chance of rain https://radar.weather.gov/station/kvtx/standard

Post frontal winds will affect some areas. Other than the winds, the sun will return, and warming will occur into the low 60s. Lows in Santa Barbara will be in the 40s as we enter the weekend, we will begin a warmup for all, with no rain for the next week. The Santa Ynez valley will even get into the 70s, but colder nights in the 30s. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.05268859025091&lat=34.61297222581541

Each day into next week will warm up through Wednesday and Santa Barbara will even see upper 60 to 70, and the valley 5 degrees warmer than the coast.

Overall, a great week ahead. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.62902805209158&lat=34.46744809901955

I hope everyone has a great Valentine’s day and I want to wish my wife a happy Valentine’s day from 2500 miles away. I will make it up when I get home.

My brother and I just landed in Phila after being at a conference all week in north Carolina. No, we are not going to the Eagles Superbowl parade, which is today, but my brother and I were joking about all the Eagle fans will be drinking and Valentine’s day for their spouses will be skipped because of their over celebrations. 25 degrees here and a high of 33 degrees. Now that’s cold and I am looking forward to coming back west.

Have a great weekend, see you next week. No more traveling for me for a few months.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

It is game on time. Rain followed by heavy rain after 10 am. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

As you wake up the rain is here, the heavy rain is just to the northwest off shore. https://zoom.earth/

It is going to be a wild day of heavy rain, Santa Barbara will see near 3 inches of rain, and the mountains will see 3 to 6 inches.

This is all about a strong winter storm and a atmospheric river supplying the rain.

As you can see outside the rain is coming at a light to moderate rate. so far .50 to .75 along the coast and 1.5 on the San Marcos pass.

The heavier rains will arrive after 10am and continue into tonight. The system has sped up around 3 hours with the heavies rain arriving sooner than expected yesterday.

Heavy rain will occur into tonight before backing off around midnight. This storm will be different from last week, because all the rain will come quicker and much heavier. Rain will be heavy at rates during the periods of ½ to 1 inch per hour. Because of the longer duration some flooding is likely and burn areas will be a mess. With flooding and mud flow possible.

Friday we still see a chance for showers, but it will be clearing out. Rain will end in the morning followed by clearing.

Looks like the weekend will bring some fog, but no rain. Next week through at least Wednesday we will see sun and dry with highs in the mid-60s.

Hang in there, it will be a wild day at Action Roofing.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

The rain has arrived, however, today the rain will be light likely in the range of a quarter of an inch in total, and if you look at the satellite, it’s interesting because the weather is coming down from the north west, which is pretty much advantageous for very little rainfall in Santa Barbara.

https://zoom.earth/

The real rain starts up overnight tonight, through midnight tomorrow, and it will be a 24 hour period where we will see light to moderate rain. Then Thursday afternoon into the evening is when the dynamics of the system are strongest and we can see heavier rain and minor flooding in areas.

Rain totals are still on track. 1 to 3 inches coastal 3 to 6 inches in the mountains. Santa Barbara coastal areas should see the higher end of the 1 to 3 inches at about 3 inches of rain in total. Rain will be moderate, but not too heavy until the main front moves through late Thursday and then the intensity picks up. however, with the rain persisting for a 24 hour period we still will get good totals.

Looks like Friday morning we have some showers but then dries out through the weekend into next week except for low clouds and fog. Nothing exciting.

I guess the rainy season has finally arrived, and the system should allow water flow into some of our reservoirs since the Earth got pretty damp last week during the rains.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Sorry for the late report, I had to fly to North Carolina for a conference on a red eye last night and I had to catch up on some 💤

So let’s get right down to business.

Today calm, no real excitement. Time to get ready for the next round of storms.

Tonight a weaker system moves in over night which will bring some lighter rain Wednesday, earlier in the morning. Looks like around 1/4 to 1/2 for the start.

Wednesday afternoon a lull in the rain, then it picks up again Wednesday night.

Thursday, rain and plenty of it. Heaviest rain will occur Thursday and Thursday night.

It will be heavy at times, and under thunder storm areas 1 inch per hour is possible, but for the most part rain will be 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour. Bottom line we will get plenty of rain Wednesday through Friday morning. Santa Barbara 3.5 mountains 3 to 6 inches Here are the totals for the storm
https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Rain will tapper off Friday during the day. This system will be a classic winter storm with good moisture support and a mild atmospheric river.

The ground after last week’s systems is now saturated so we will see good run off.

Flooding is possible especially in the burn areas.

Friday afternoon we clear out the rain, then we look at dry through at least Tuesday of next week.

This week's rains will bring much higher rain total than the last system and this will also be a stronger wind event.

Get ready, it will be a busy second half of the work week

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

It is going to be another very wet week, with potential heavy rains on Thursday that could produce 1 inch per hour rain fall. Here is zoom earth setting up the excitement
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

For the short term, we have 2 days of dry weather then it all changes on Wednesday.

It looks like a slight chance overnight Tuesday, but the rain will arrive sometime Wednesday. This week’s rain will come in 2 phases.
Wednesday will be colder air and rain will likely be 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch.

It looks like we will see a break on Wednesday night, but the big rains will arrive on Thursday and Friday. This will be a warmer and wetter system with our famous atmospheric river fueling the rains. Rain will be heavy at times and in a 2 day period we can see 2 to 4 more inches. Rain rates with 1 inch per hour can make flooding and debris flow likely in the burn areas, similar to what we had in 2018, but not here, in the fire areas south of us. This will also be windy with the low spinning counterclockwise pulling the subtropical jet from the southeast and dumping more rain on south facing mountains.

It is going to be an interesting period to watch so stay tuned for updates.

The short term models will come out on Tuesday and we will define the track better.

Bottom line, cooler weather this week. Highs in the lower 60s then rain Wednesday, followed by heavy rains on Thursday into Friday.

Stay tuned, it will be an interesting week

Jack Martin

Good damp Friday morning,

Looks like the rains are now over for the week, with the next rain coming next Wednesday night.

Now lets look at some details. After a long drought with no rain, we are happy to report 5.5 inches of rain on San Marcos pass, 3.5 inches in Montecito, and 2.5 in Santa Barbara this week.

Here are all the numbers for this week https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today we dry out and all weekend. Cool weather with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, but sunshine. Overnight lows will be in the 40s along the coast and 30s in the valleys.

Superbowl Sunday we will see 60s for a high and sunshine.

Next week we will see dry weather through Wednesday, then the next system arrives Wednesday night. The next system can be a weaker system to a strong system as models are not in agreement yet. If on the stronger side, we could see 3 to 6 inches and lighter 1 to 2 inches. still a good system. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.67434685677291&lat=34.44085109148044

In the meantime, Action will patch up some roofs, it is nice to have the phones ringing again.

Have a great weekend,
Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Sorry about the lack of report on Wednesday, it was a travel day for me.

Santa Barbara and surrounding area did received good rainfall with the first system. Here are the numbers https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Now we will dry out for 1 day then more rain is on the way for tonight into Friday.

This next system will not drop as much rain, but still good totals will accumulate. It looks like .5 to 1 inch along the coast, 1 to 2 inches in the mountains. The rain will start up later tonight and fall into Friday with showers likely.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Here is the next system and rain approaching https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/

After that it looks like we will see a break into next week with a weak system for the second half of the week.

In the meantime we are happy that the rains have arrived and fire season will come to a close for now.

Have a nice weekend, some winds on Saturday and Saturday night, but Super Bowl Sunday will be nice but cooler.

I return late Friday, it has been very nice here in Mexico!

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Wet weather is coming, but it does look like Santa Barbara and south will not receive any rain until this afternoon.

Looking at zoom earth you can really get a good picture of the low pressure system way to the north spinning in the sub tropical moisture. Nor Cal is still getting the brunt of the storm, but the south end of the AR will hit us. SLO will see rain this morning, with some showers starting now.

Santa Barbara will likely not see rain till this afternoon and the bulk of the rain coming tonight and most of Wednesday.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Winds will pick up this afternoon, and rains will follow. It looks like the first storm will give us .75 to 1.5 inches of rain through Wednesday.

Thursday day will be dry but a second fetch of moisture will give us more rain Thursday night and Friday, this will be less in totals .5 to .75 for most areas. No real flooding concerns since it will not be too heavy. It does look like a clear weekend, but highs in to 60s at best.

Super Bowl Sunday will be cool but dry.

Enjoy the much needed rain,

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

One more day of dry, then rain will be a part of most of our work week.

Looking at zoom earth you can see the fog hugging the coast and the AR remaining in NorCal, but now working its way towards us.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Today will be dry, but rain chances increase as the AR tracks south. We will get the tail end of the AR, so rain totals Will not be crazy.
Rain tonight in SLO to SB, but SB will be light 1/10 and northern SLO could see an inch.

Tuesday will be a rainy day for SB and SLO county. Ventura and LA will remain dry till noonish. Rain will be moderate Tuesday with lighter rain. The bulk of the rain will come Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain will be moderate with .5 to 1 inch in SB. More on south facing mountains.

Thursday showers, but more rain Thursday night. Friday into the weekend we should clear out. It will be a wet week which we welcome. Nothing crazy, just enough to give us much needed rain.

Have a good week, turn off your sprinklers

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Short range models are now taking over the forecast. As mentioned the short range models are more accurate. It does now look like the rain will now develop Tuesday during the day, but the bulk of the rain will be Tuesday night through most of Wednesday. You can see the numbers in this forecast, but we should get decent rainfall totals, click the link below
https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Rain in SB will likely start up Tuesday morning, and be on the light side for Tuesday daytime. This as we get into the night rain picks up and Wednesday will be wet all day.

Thursday is looking to be dry, then a second impulse will arrive Friday and give us some additional rainfall.

It does look like we will dry out Saturday and through the weekend
Enjoy 2 more days of dry weather, then let the rains begin. God knows we need it.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,
Jack Martin