Jack's Weather Report

Good Friday morning, 

Where do I start today? 

The first of 2 strong storm systems has passed through leaving us with impressive rain totals for a 24-hour period. Summarizing quickly, everyone saw 3 inches of rain. San Marcos pass 6.32 inches. The Santa Barbara area was hit the hardest.

Here are the local numbers.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today we will see some north winds and a few passing showers. Nothing to be cautious of, maybe a few mountain showers.

Looking ahead the big news is all about the next storm system. The grounds are saturated and the second system is right on the heels of yesterday’s system. 

If you look closely at the forecast you will see that the timing of the rains starting has moved up by 12 to 24 hours. It does appear we will be mostly dry today and daylight hours on Saturday, but rain will move in Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday. This second system looks very powerful and long-lasting. Some models show showers into Wednesday or Thursday morning. The main event starts Sunday morning and lasts into Tuesday. There is a lot of subtropical moisture and a low-pressure system that is predicted to stall over us and pump in the moisture for up to 2 days. With the saturated ground and rain rates of a steady 1/2 inch or more per hour, it is going to make flooding of low-living areas likely.

Updated rain totals have not come out today, but as of yesterday, they were talking about 3 to 6 inches in coastal and foothills, 6 to 12 inches in the mountains, and a 30% to 50% chance that coastal areas of south-facing hills (us) could see 8 inches of rain and mountains 15 inches. These numbers were from yesterday and I will wait for the updated numbers, but this system is looking to be the Holly grail of storms for the year. There will be significant flooding along some creeks and rivers. At this point, there is a 25% chance that the Ventura, and Santa Ynez rivers will reach flood stages. A  Significant rise in level will occur and don’t be stupid to try white water rafting. You laugh, but some folks will. 

Regarding Montecito and the heavy rains. I have received a number of calls at this point. It is still too early to know how much impact there will be, but small stream flooding is likely and everyone should keep an eye on the forecast Sunday through Monday. This is when the heaviest rain will fall. I will update on a regular basis on Sunday and Monday. 

Get prepared because you have  2 daylight days before a lot of rain falls, especially if you live in low-lying areas.

More to come, we will be making the national news 

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Welcome to February, the wettest month of the year.

We are certainly starting off with very wet weather. Where the rain duration was not very long, we did see some great totals in a short period of time. The Santa Barbara area over night saw 2 plus inches for all and 3.5 inches in the hills. The San Marcus Pass has seen almost 5 inches, Montecito 2.5 inches. The subtropical jet is now moving south of our area, so the heavy rain will come to an end in the next 2 hours
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.42,-113.62,5.31z/date=2024-02-01,03:20,-8

The winds also have been a big factor, with a large tree down on Carrillo hill. Stay away from that area this morning.

As I mentioned the heaviest part of the first storm system is almost over. Rain rates were 1/4 to 1/2 per hour through the night with strong south winds. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

For the rest of the day, heavy rains will turn to showers shortly, but for the most part dry with just some showers lingering.

Friday and Saturday will be dry, but the next system rolls in Saturday night into Sunday.

This next system will bring double what the first system brought us over night and last 24 to 48 hours with moderate to heavy rain at times.

The next system will have subtropical support and spin down the coast and stall near us pumping in the subtropical moisture for a much longer period of time. All the models agree this will be the strongest system of 2024 and accumulations of 2 to 4 inches coastal 4 to 8 inches mountains and more on south faces (us).

Of course, we will need to watch this. Systems like this in the past have really created long lasting rains for days, which can result in flooding. This will be one to watch as it gets closer.

Stay tuned, dry for a few days then watch out for this next one.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Last day of January, and the last dry day for a while.

Are you ready for some extremely wet weather? Ready or not here it comes.

Today, nothing exciting until late in the day and then it quickly changes with the first system showing up tonight and overnight.

This is a good system with some subtropical moisture to support it, but the longevity of the storm will only be 6 to 8 hours.
https://zoom.earth/

Rain will start up overnight and rain into the afternoon Thursday.

Rainfall will be 1 to 2 inches coastal, 2 to 4 inches in the mountains, and 5 inches or so on south faces. This will also be a windy storm with South winds coming up this afternoon in the hills, blowing 30 to 40 miles an hour.

Thursday afternoon turns to showers and we actually have a chance of showers through Friday.

Friday and Saturday, a weak ridge set up will still give us some light showers but the most part dry and cold.

Sunday, the next storm comes to play. This is going to be the strongest storm of the season, we could see 2 to 3 days of steady rain. We’re looking at 2 to 4 inches along the coast, and 4 to 8 inches in the hills. Yes, this one will be a doozy.

Exact timing and longevity is still to be decided, but it will have good subtropical, tap and the low will spin pumping in the moisture for a number of days.

This will be the biggest storm of the 2024 equaling the late December storm.

Sounds like it might be a busy day for me today. Enjoy the last day of dryness because it’s gonna be wet for the next week.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

The party is almost over and the great weather will come to an end. I hope everyone enjoyed the tropical vacation in Santa Barbara.

Today will be the last day with 70s as highs, before our weather takes a turn for the worst. As you can see high clouds will start in as high pressure has moved East.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.8,-119.4,4z

Today will be a nice warm day, with highs in the lower 70s. Still 5 plus degrees above normal for this time of year.

Wednesday the Pacific Northwest low moves towards us. Rain will start up Wednesday night in SLO then move south arriving in LA right at rush hour in the morning. This will result in a messy drive in LA traffic.

Expect a mild atmospheric river, which means we will see only 4 to 8 hours of moderate to heavy rain. Expect 1 to 3 inches along SB. 3 to 5 inches in the mountains from just the first system. Highs only in the 60s snow level 6000 feet.

Thursday the snow levels drop to 4000 feet and some grapevine snow is possible.

We stay in northwest flow with some showers possible through Friday.

Saturday looks like a transition day before another system Sunday into Tuesday.

Yes, this one looks to be a good one with 24 to 48 hours of moderate rain. Intensity and the duration of this second system is still in question, but it might be a good one.

Bottom line, the party is over for now, get ready for a bunch of rain.

Have a great day, it will be the last nice day for awhile.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

No I was not sleeping in... It's just been a busy morning, but my weather groups are never to be forgotten.

Today the continued summer weather will be upon us with upper 70s to 80 degrees.

Tuesday more of the same, but high pressure begins to move east.

Wednesday the first system to bring us rain will begin to move in. rain Wednesday night in SLO, then drop to us early Thursday morning.

Thursday will be a wet day; we are looking at a good system with lots of moisture to mix with the low-pressure system. This will bring us rain into Friday.

We are looking at 1 to 2.5 coastal, 2 to 4 inches in the mountains and 5 or more on south faces. (Yep, a good rain) with rates per hour from 1/3 to ¾ inch at times.

Looks like drier Saturday before rain moves in again Sunday.

Looking into the long-range models we will see rain into mid-February.

Enjoy the great weather the next 2 days, then winter returns. Snow levels will start out at 6000 to 6500 feet and drop to 3000 on Friday. This is a colder storm.

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

The weekend is almost here and it is going to be a really nice warm one https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.6897277496755&lat=34.42976536745786

Highs today 71 in Santa Barbara, 75 Saturday and warmer Sunday. Just great weather for the weekend.

Monday and Tuesday high pressure continues and warmer temps. Tuesday the ridge breaks down.

Wednesday low pressure rolls towards us with chances of rain stating in the afternoon.

Wednesday night and Thursday rain is expected moderate to heavy at times, but still too far out to have a good handle on this.

This weekend high surf and the Rincon classic. The weather will be as good as it gets for this surf competition.

Enjoy the weekend regardless of what you’re doing, it will be a great weekend to get outside and call family around the country where it is bitter cold.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

A Weak low pressure system passed through yesterday with some light rain north and light drizzle here.

This morning, fog is out there, but by this afternoon, high pressure and off shore flow builds.
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=50.7,-136.9,4.18z

Friday, warming weather and above normal temps through the entire weekend.

Saturday and Sunday you are going to love the forecast. High pressure and off shore flow will spell the warmest weather of 2024. Temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs for all will be in the 70s and some valley areas into the 80s.

Next week the nice weather continues into Tuesday then it changes on Wednesday.

Wednesday the storm door opens again with a series of systems giving us rain on and off into the second week of February. It looks like an atmospheric river is possible.

Meaning the subtropical moisture is like a river in the air. Combined with cold air, it drops lots of rain.

Now this is still in the long range models and you really can not trust long range models, but it is something to watch over the next 2 weeks.

Bottom line, it will be a fantastic weekend, with warm temps through the weekend.

Beyond, stay tuned. It is just the start of February, later next week. the wettest time of year is upon us.

Enjoy the great weather starting Friday and better Saturday and Sunday!

As far as lake levels, all lakes are full except for Cachuma at 91%. Nacimento is 61% San Antonio 65%. Needless to say all these numbers are pretty good for this time of year.
High surf this weekend for surfers

Enjoy,
Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

The rain is over, but it was a success with total of 2 to 3 inches in the Santa Barbara area over the period Friday through Monday.

The big winner was Rocky Butte in SLO with 8.86 inches, locally San Marcos pass and Refugio pass both had over 3 inches.

https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

So what’s up next? Well. the wind of course. Between the rain and the wind, it should be crystal clear out there today. You also need to check out the full moon.

Today we will see warming begin with temps a few degrees warmer.

Wednesday a weak low-pressure system will bring rain to SLO and northern Santa Barbara county ¼ inch or less. None here in southern Santa Barbara county.

Thursday, we start a nice warm up with offshore winds.

Friday through Monday it will be great weather for January with 70s and lots of sunshine.

Next week, it looks like the storm track returns Wednesday or Thursday, so enjoy the great weather, but don’t get to use to it.

We are getting into the shortest month of the year, but the wettest for southern California.

Enjoy the views today, the island should be picture perfect.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

The wet weekend continues today with the heaviest rain. The only good part about a rainy weekend is there was really no rain during the day.

Certainly not beach weather, but at least it was dry for the most part. Today the strongest and wettest system rolls through. https://zoom.earth

The new work week is here, but in the construction industry many jobs will take a pause today.

Today the rain was falling pretty heavy from 2 to 4 am in SB. The heavier rain is now in Ventura and heading south to LA just in time for the commute this morning.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

Today it looks like rain through around noon for our area, and heavy at times. This afternoon rain will turn to showers.

Tonight there is a 20% to 40% chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain. Models are still trying to figure that part out, so we will focus on today.

The Santa Barbara area will see the greatest rainfall numbers today because of the south flow and subtropical jet. South winds of 25 miles an hour is likely at times, causing enhanced rain squeezing all rain out of the sky due to the south facing mountains.

After tonight we dry out here in SB and south. SLO will still see a little more rain on Wednesday as a weak system passes through. For us dry weather the rest of the week.

Plus a warming trend with 4 to 8 degrees above normal for next weekend. Maybe you can break out the suntan lotion 😊.

Looking into the crystal ball it looks like the wet pattern returns the first of February, nine days away.

Enjoy the day off if you are in the construction industry (not me). This will be one of those Mondays that weekend warriors do not need to call in sick (again not me)

Have a great day and stay dry.

Did you see the Chief’s game yesterday? Great game especially if you like the chiefs. Talyor swift was there, but Jason Kelce stole the show with shirt off and downing a beer.

If you have not seen the Kelsey documentary on amazon prime called KELCE you need to watch it. It was great.

A true Phila man and fan, being from Phila many moons ago it was hilarious.

Ok that’s the excitement for the day.

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Rain last night came down pretty good and the rain totals are now starting to add up, and we are just beginning to get into the wet period. The Santa Barbara area has received the most rain so far with everyone approaching 1 inch.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today we will see rain again as the next wave moves in today, tonight and Monday.

This will be the heaviest rain with rates tonight and Monday at 1/2 to 3/4 an inch per hour. Everyone will receive another 1 to 2 inches and 2 to 4 in the mountains.

Rain will end Monday night and we will dry out the rest of the week.

Enjoy the rain, and I am sure lots will be watching football 🏈

Jack Martin