Jack's Weather Report

Good Sunday morning,

I hope everyone got a good night’s sleep. I slept in till after 6 am today. Look out there as I fed Pearl this morning the deck is wet.

Most locations last night saw a little rain 1/10 or less, Cachuma was the big winner at .43 of an inch overnight.

Today light showers today and cool weather as a weak system moves through. the snow level is at 2500 to 3000 feet with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible in higher elevations.

We will not see much more rain today, as mentioned yesterday we are expecting a total of ¼ of an inch. Just light rain and drizzle is expected. https://zoom.earth/

The good news, one week from today we turn the clocks ahead and we will see one more hour of daylight in the evenings. Hopefully, that means Spring is near.

Monday through likely Friday we are looking at dry weather and a warmup to a whopping 60 degrees, but at least it will be dry.

The jury is still out on next weekend, as one long-range model calls for cool and wet, and the other says dry. They will figure it out.

I am ready for a dry weekend it has been 3 weeks now with rain.

Enjoy the damp Sunday, just cool and damp, with not a lot of rain highs today at 55 degrees, and lows at 42 degrees in Santa Barbara, 53 in Santa Ynez. and 36 tonight (chilly )

We will be back with good news on Monday with sunshine in the forecast.

It was a pretty Saturday with clouds and a little bit of sun. ( attached photo from my house )

Sorry for the late forecast, yes, I slept in 😊

Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,
The sunny skies of the last few days will change to cloudy, and the marine layer moving in today. https://zoom.earth/

Looking out there you can see the clouds moving in as a weak cold front will affect us for the next 2 days.

Today is interesting to start the day, because Santa Barbara is 44 degrees to start the day, and Santa Ynez is 48 degrees. That is not typical.

Highs today will only increase slightly to 54 degrees. It will be a cool day with not much sunshine.

Tonight the rain chance starts to increase, then on Sunday the same. This is not a big storm, only 1/10th to ¼ of an inch.

The snow level will drop to 3000 feet with traces of snow in the hills and the grapevine with 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Next week we are looking at better weather through Thursday. Dry and warmer each day.

Friday is still not clear, and the models still don’t agree, but models are faring dryer.

Lastly, The weather we had earlier in the week has reached the East coast and is making the national news today. Snow is everywhere back there, and that’s the big story on the news.

Now let’s have some fun.

Yesterday there was a launch of a rocket at Vandenburg, Wes got some great pictures that I had to share.

With all the rain of the season, I was wondering how this season compares to other record years. I figured we were way up there in the wettest years, but this is not a fact. This year was very wet, but nowhere near the record years, we are around the 6th wettest year recorded. here’s the data.

https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Good Friday morning,

Another Friday after another wet week. It has just been incredible how many wet weeks we have had this year.

I can not remember any year since I moved here in 1982 with more rain, even the 1998 El Nino year.

Finally, the drought control folks have realized that we are not out of the drought in California.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/losangeles/news/california-drought-update-winter-storm-lifts-regions-out-of-drought/

The good news is we will see a few days of dry weather, through Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday we will see a chance of rain, they are at 40% for us now, but it will be ¼ of an inch or less.

This will be a very cold storm again with snow levels around 3000 feet. https://zoom.earth/

Sunday it will be cloudy and cool.

Monday through Wednesday will be dry, with offshore winds and some warming. The warming that occurs will still be below normal temps in the low 60s.

Thursday the Jury is still out on the change in the weather. The models are not in agreement, one is wet and the other is not sure.

We will watch how it goes into next week.

At this point, it looks like Saturday night we can see a little rain-snow at 3000 feet, ¼ inch or less. Next week dry until Thursday then a big question Mark.

Stay tuned and enjoy a few days of good weather.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Amen, we get a break from the rain. All the rain has created lots of problems, but the good is the outcome of all our lakes have water.

I know I keep going back to this report that is updated daily, but these numbers are just crazy. 206% of normal for this time of year countywide. 151 % of rainfall for the entire year from October first to October first and we still have 7 months to go for the season https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Now for the forecast. Today is cool but sunny. Highs will make it to a whopping 61 degrees. Nights in the 40s. Winds will be a reasonable 5 to 10 miles an hour.

Dry weather will remain for likely the next week with no big systems out there. There will be a slight chance for rain Sunday night and Tuesday, but these systems look to stay to the north, not affecting our area with rain, maybe some clouds.

Highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s . with lows in the 40s in coastal areas and 30s in the valleys. All in all, we will get a chance to dry out and get a few more tarps off roofs.

Enjoy the dry period, check out the photos of June lake with a wall of snow. (thanks Peter)

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Welcome to March. The cold front is really marching in with force this morning.

The winds are whipping this morning with 40-mile-an-hour gusts at my house.

Last night we said goodbye to February with some interesting rain, wind thunder lighting, and another .75 to 2 inches of rain, just crazy as the rain totals for the season keep adding up. 

Today we will see chilly temps, wind, showers, and snow in the local mountain as the low pushes south out of our area.

It looks like the showers should last till around noon and the wind will hang around all day. 

Tonight, is really cold weather, especially in the mountains and valleys. Expect freezing temps.

Thursday we will be dry and sunny through Saturday and part of Sunday. Temps will rise into the low 60s warming us up slightly. 

Sunday and into next week the jury is still out on whether we will see more rain.

A weaker system will affect the central coast Sunday night into Monday, but the models still are not sure how far south the rain will go.

Midweek is another weaker system with the same question mark. We will have to decide how that plays out as we get into the weekend.

In the meantime, the core of the low is pushing through now and will be with us till noon, with showers, https://zoom.earth/

LA is getting the bulk of the rain now. 

Enjoy the Fun, calmer days will prevail on Thursday. 

Jack Martin 

Good Tuesday morning and the last day of February,

Although this is not a leap year. 2024 is, so I will get it right next year 😊

We will have a relatively dry Tuesday before more rain returns late afternoon and tonight.

It makes me laugh when the National weather service writes in the forecast that the storm system has overachieved expectations.

I think pretty much this entire rainy season has overachieved expectations, as we are more than 200% of normal rainfall for the season today. Can you believe San Marcos pass has received 58 inches of rain this season, so far?

Here is the next round of weather heading our way https://zoom.earth/#view=33,-117.8,4z/map=live .

This is north to south right now, but it will be cut off later in the day.

creating south winds and good rainfall late this afternoon and tonight. snow levels will start out today at 3000 to 4000 feet, then overnight drop to 1500 to 2500 feet.

This will bring back lots of pretty pictures of our mountains and plenty of snow. Closer to sea level more rain. ½ to 1 ½ inches with 1 to 3 inches in the hills and at the best exposure another 4 inches. Snow will be in the feet above 5000 feet, 4 to 8 inches below and snow down to 1500 feet by Wednesday morning. The rain/snow will end Wednesday during the day then the chill returns Wednesday night with freezing temps overnight. (stay off the 154 Thursday morning, we don’t need another 6-car crash from ice)

Thursday through Saturday day we are looking for dry weather, and a slight warm-up. Highs will get into the low 60s, which is better than the 50s.

Sunday and into next week, it just will not break. it looks like we will be remaining in the wet pattern with more rain and cool weather.

This pattern really must break soon since we are getting into March and typically the end of the rainy season. Let’s hope for some 70s after next week.

In the meantime enjoy the wet, cool weather another week. You don’t have a choice unless you get on a plane.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,
We are waking to more rain and snow at higher elevations.
Light rain is the story for the next 2 days as another Pacific Northwest low is going to bring us periods of rain into Wednesday. This morning we are seeing rain, look for 1/10 too .40 from the first wave.

More rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Then Thursday we get a break till Sunday. The snow level is at 4000 feet but will drop to 2500 to 3000 feet. This means more snow in the mountains and on the Grapevine. The 101 will be a mess if the grapevine continues to be closed.
All in all, we are looking at a total of 1/2 to an inch along the coast. 1 to 2 inches in the mountains. And up to 3 inches on south faces in SB and SLO.
Snow is 4 to 8 inches below 4000 feet and a few feet above 5000 feet. The winter storm advisory continues for the mountains.
Thursday through Saturday will be dry. Warming into the low 60s. Sunday it looks like another system will begin to affect SLO and Santa Barbara county.

Yesterday I took a drive to Santa Ynez to look at the fantastic views. Where I was not alone it was worth the drive. All the observation areas on the Pass were packed with cars. The incredible views were worth the 3-hour trip, and I got to have lunch with my kids and grandkids.

Enjoy the damp first half of the work week. Our crazy rainy season seems to only keep going.

Good Saturday morning,

Hope everyone slept well and stayed dry. It has been a wild week and now we will go into phase 3 of the storm.

The low-pressure system is just off-point conception spinning ever so slowly south and east. https://zoom.earth/#view=32,-109.8,5z/map=live

What does this mean for us? Today steady rain will now turn to showers. because this air is so cold it will squeeze out any moisture in the clouds.

Rain is showery with very heavy at times. Thundershowers and small tornados are all possible, and of course snow above 2500 feet. Highs will get to the low 50s only, and the snow level 2500 to 3500.

Tonight the rain will stop, and we will have a break for Sunday. Short-lived because the next system is right on top of this one. Sunday night rain returns into Monday.

This system is a lot weaker with no southern support and moisture starved. what does that mean? 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch of rain.

Tuesday through Thursday we will have a series of inside sliders, this translates to wind and very little moisture along with colder weather.

snow below 4000 feet and highs along the coast in the mid-50s.

The biggest impact today will be the freeway with the grapevine being closed because of snow. 101 will be a place to avoid. Unfortunately, next week the inside sliders will give more snow to the grapevine, so heavy traffic on the 101 is likely through midweek. The good news is Friday and into the weekend we warm up to the low 60s. “I would prefer the 70s”, but we will take what we get.

2023 has been quite a year for all the crazy rain, wind, and snow. On top of that, Tuesday is a leap year, so we have an extra day and all babies born on that day will have a birthday every 4 years only. Just think, I am 63, and 63 divided by 4= 15.75 that be pretty cool. Right now we have received 2.5 to 6 inches of rain with this storm. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA don’t look at carp, at 16.79 someone’s math is messed up 😊. Heavier rain has now shifted to the south https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard this one shows it best https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

When you wake up, look at the mountains. It should be very pretty looking at the mountains in Santa Ynez. Here we may see some snow up high in our local coastal mountains.

at 8 am the season's rain totals will be out, and it will be fun to look at the total for this historical year. The snowpack is just crazy with Mammoth receiving 35 feet of snow to date.

The craziness will continue into the spring, which we hope is right around the corner. The central valley however will not be excited about the snow melt, because the flooding there will be crazy.

March arrives on Wednesday, and hopefully, this will be the worst of the rain for the season.  Spring showers are fine, but I want the 70s to return.

The great news is daylight savings starts on March 12 just 2 weeks away. We will all be happy to welcome longer evenings again.

The great news is that all the rain of the year has filled the lakes and we will not hear about water restrictions for years to come. “I wonder if water rates will come down ?” 

For some reason I doubt it.

Here are the totals for the year as of Friday at 8am. The numbers will be much higher today https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

still, we are way ahead OF ANY YEAR for rain totals.

Have fun today, stay off the 101 and close to home. Sunday would be a good day to visit the snow in the local mountains. Figueroa Mountain will be popular on Sunday.

Ok, I got up way too early today, I must get ready for a workday, as Action Roofing is open for business today. Fixing leaks and covering up roofs.

Have a great day!

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning, 

Wednesday was interesting little bit of hail open Solvang. And some light showers at the fun is just beginning.

Take a lookup in the mountains you’ll see a light dusting of snow. levels remain low today 1500 to 2500. It will also be very cold today it’s only in the 50s.

Where do I start from here? 

Here is the current radar. You can see that we have scattered showers and more Westerly flow over our area. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

North Winds are now I’m starting to shift a little bit more Westerly. This is going to increase the chance of rain in our area throughout the day.

There will not be a lot of rain today just scattered showers, but everybody will see it at some point. Tonight winds will shift again and become more southeasterly which will increase the rainfall as the low gets closer to our area.

Friday and particularly Friday night into Saturday we’re going to experience heavy rains.

Good southeast flow will create heavy rains for Santa Barbara, as low pressure moves very slowly down the coast pumping in Pacific moisture. Santa Barbara will see 2 to 5 inches of rain. The mountains of Santa Barbara are 5 to 7 inches.

The snow level will remain low until Friday and then will rise to 4500 feet as the storm Moves in. Rain will be heavy into Saturday. Then the snow level begins to drop again down to around 2000 feet Friday night into Saturday. This should show us lots of white stuff on local mountains when you wake up on Saturday morning.

The blizzard warning will expire Saturday night, but there still could be blowing snow up in the mountains my suggestion is “stay away.”

Sunday it looks like a break in the action that might be a good day for you to go to the snow. But Monday looks like another system will begin to affect us more from Monday night till Wednesday. This is going to be weaker system, but we can still expect another inch of rain. Snow levels will remain low for this next storm. 

It will be interesting to see when the next day that we actually get up to 60° we will have remained in the 50s for more than a week.

 It was interesting to me that the national weather service mentioned the weather from 1989 and one of my clients wrote back about a story that he had with his son I had to share.

 "Oh yeah, the Blizzard of ’89.  I remember it well.  My son, age 20, nearly died.  

He and a friend decided to hike from the back of the San Rafael Range to Santa Barbara.  April, so what could go wrong?  Fortunately, I suggested polypropylene underwear, which he bought as an afterthought.  

 I don’t remember how they got to their starting point.  They climbed as far as Mission Basin (±5,000’) when the snow started in full force. They were snowbound and unable to see to find directions for 24 hours, wrapped around each other in a small tent to share some warmth.  They were able to finish the walk the next day.  I was in the process of calling for helicopters when he called to say he was OK."

 The moral of the story is to stay out of the mountains over the next three days.

Enjoy the fun or hard for you to define it. It will be an interesting 2 1/2 days 

Stay safe indoors and watch the crazy weather from inside your house.  

Jack Martin

I like this forecast that is simple to read

"Widely scattered showers almost exclusively over the mountains, 
the Central Coast, and the northwestern portion of the Antelope Vly 
will continue today and overnight. Rainfall amounts will only be 
0.05-0.25 inches while above 2000 ft 1 to 4 inches of snow is 
possible. 

A deep low-pressure system will drop down the West Coast Thursday 
through Saturday with heavy precipitation expected mainly on Friday, 
followed by numerous showers into the weekend. Rain rates are likely 
to range from 0.50-1.0 inches per hour when the front moves through 
the area on Friday. Rainfall totals with this system will be 
widespread of 2-4 inches for the coasts and valleys of Santa 
Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties from Thursday night through 
Saturday. Snow levels will remain low with the lower foothills 
seeing 4-6 inches of rain and then a mix or change over to snow 
above 2500 feet. Snow totals with this system will be very 
significant with 6-12 inches up to 4000 feet and 2-5 feet above 
4000 feet with isolated 7-foot totals at higher elevations. 

The break between storm systems could be brief on Sunday to early 
Monday when another significant rain event impacts the area on 
Tuesday or Wednesday next week."