Jack's Weather Report

1/10/24

By jack martin on Jan 10, 2024 at 05:55 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

Crazy that 1 year ago yesterday we had the wild storm with flooding everywhere. It was a far cry from last year. The current weather is all about sunshine, cold and winds as another dry and cold low drops into the interior of California.
https://zoom.earth/

This will bring lots of wind and some light snow on north mountains. Mountains should expect 45 to 55 mile an hour winds tonight with 80 mile an hour gusts. It will be quite cold and wild winds. Not a good place to be.

It looks like our dry weather will continue through the next week, with a few more inside sliders that will really keep us cold, windy and sunny.

This is great news for my sewer project at my house in Santa Ynez, but bottom line this will change and we will get back to El Niño.

It is still early in our rainy season and I do expect wild rains to return before the end of January.

In the mean time, dress warm and be ready for wind. Winds will be felt everywhere tonight and Saturday night.

It sure is pretty and clear out there.

Jack Martin

1/8/24

By jack martin on Jan 08, 2024 at 07:33 PM

A week into the new year, I think I am finally getting it down to write a 24 after the date.

It is cold out there. 36 in Santa Ynez and 49 here, and it is only getting colder this week. Just look at the lows in the 20s in the valley. Highs will be in the upper 50s to 60 degrees
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.03501176834101&lat=34.61117088969736

Looking at the forecast the next 7 days there is just not a lot happening. Sunny, cold days and nights most of the week with below normal temps.

Rain chances are low and if we do see any rain through the week it will be very light.

Rain chances start Wednesday night, with a weak system just like Saturday's. An inside slider. Saturday nights system we saw lot of wind, but only .001 to .003 of rain.

This will be another result of the same with Wednesday night system. After that our next shot of rain will be Saturday into Sunday, however there is no agreement on the long range models. The only agreement is it will be on the lighter side if we do see rain.

Bottom line, cold and dry is pretty much what to expect this week. Frost on roofs is likely in the valleys and some foothills. Be careful on those roofs 😂 leave it to the pros.

Have a great week, don’t forget the game tonight Huskies Vs Michigan should be a good one. As I check off my boxes of teams, between the 2, I will root for the huskies... And what was the pac 12.

Have a great week, bring a jacket and maybe gloves

1/5/24

By jack martin on Jan 05, 2024 at 06:31 PM

The first weekend in 2024 is approaching.

Today we start out with cooler weather and some high clouds over head. No real excitement to report other the minor winds.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=35.9,-107,4z

Saturday an inside slider will drop south. This is a very weak system that should not result in any rain, but it will become quite windy, especially in the mountains. Expect north and northwest winds with gusts in the mountains of 60 to 70 miles an hour. Less Breezy at lower elevations but still windy.

Where wind is not a factor, cold will there will be some areas with freezing temps

Once that system blow though Sunday we are off to good weather through at least Wednesday. High pressure and some off shore winds will warm us up to the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday night into Thursday another weak system that will bring little rain, if any.

It is looking like next week will remain dry for the most part.

Beyond that models are struggling with long range forecast. At this point it looks like we could get back into a wet pattern the middle of January.

Have a great Friday and enjoy your weekend.

Jack Martin

1/3/24

By jack martin on Jan 03, 2024 at 04:25 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

Over night we had rain. We received anywhere from 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch.
Not a huge rain maker, but today will be about the cold air, wind and showers.

Satellite shows the front has moved into LA but the cold air is just arriving. If you look at the little dots out in the pacific that’s the cold air and showers.
https://zoom.earth/

Not a lot more rain today, but some showers are likely. These will be in the form of snow above 4500 feet and showers below. These clouds will not hold much moisture because of the cold air. Expect shower chances through 10pm tonight.

Thursday and Friday will be dry and colder. Highs will barely make 60.

Saturday the next system moves in Saturday night. This is looking like it will be further inland so rainfall will likely be light if any, but don’t bet the house at this point, just stay tuned.

Enjoy the winter day and high surf. Thursday morning it will appear you can reach out and touch the islands because of the crystal clear skies from this wind and rain affect.

Jack Martin

1/2/24

By jack martin on Jan 02, 2024 at 05:16 PM

Good Tuesday morning 2024,

This week winter arrives with the coldest storms of the the season. We will see a 1-2 punch tonight and Saturday night
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.3,-164,4z/date=2024-01-02,01:30,-8

This week will be a chilly one with highs along the coast only 60 degrees on Wednesday and snow levels at 4500 feet.
Today we will see sunshine with some high clouds mixed in and highs in the lower 60s.

Tonight the cold storm system moves in. Rain and snow 5000 feet and above. Some snow will fall on the grape vine. Rain should be on the lighter side with 1/2 to 3/4 locally and SLO county could see an inch.

This is a cold system and not a lot of moisture to work with. Rain will start over night tonight and Wednesday. It will be all over by Thursday.

Looks like Thursday through Saturday day will be dry, before the next system moves in with additional rain late Saturday night into Sunday.

This one will also be moisture starved and take a more inland track.

Expect 1/0 to 1/4 out of Sunday system.

Next week it looks like a ridge will build in and keep storms away for most of next week.

Happy 2024, let’s get out there and do it another year!

Jack Martin

1/1/24

By jack martin on Jan 01, 2024 at 05:05 PM

Happy new year!

I hope everyone is having a great new years morning.

The start of 2024 will bring us 2 days of sunshine, but chilly weather.

The low pressure system that drifted by us yesterday is near San Diego and really did nothing but bring us cloudy skies and cooler temps.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=26,-114.7,4.7z/date=2024-01-01,03:00,-8

Today and Tuesday we will be sunny and cool with highs in the low 60s.

Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning we are looking at another rain event. Colder air the snow level will drop to 4500 feet and bring snow to the resorts.

There is not a lot of moisture with this next system, so it will be a 1 day event with 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch of rain.

Thursday the rain clears out and we will likely see dry chilly weather into Saturday.

Then Saturday night into Sunday another shot of rain. This one is even weaker then Wednesday's system and is looking to take a more inland track, which will make it moisture starved. Expect another 1/2 inch at this point.

Enjoy your New Year’s Day, sunny and clear out there right now.

High today around 63 degrees

Jack Martin

12/31/23

By jack martin on Jan 01, 2024 at 05:02 PM

Good New Year’s Eve morning,

I am sure everyone is counting down the minutes till the new year. However I thought we would end 2023 with some stats.
Cachuma lake is 91% full with Gibraltar and many other reservoirs full.

Rain totals for the season at this point are 114% of normal.

Yesterday's storm brought everyone 1 inch of rain. Some Mountain locations saw 2 inches.
https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Today you will see cloudy skies most of the day with a chance of rain later today and tonight. This is a very weak system, where it does rain expect 1/10 or less.

Monday and Tuesday look dry, but Wednesday a stronger system will move in in the early morning in SLO and late morning on SB and Ventura. rain totals will be 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches.

Thursday the rain clears out and it looks Like a dry few days, with another system Sunday. At this point it looks to be weaker, but we are still too far out to make that call.

In the mean time, enjoy your last day of 2023 and we will talk in the new year 😂

Happy new years to All “Cheers”

Jack Martin

12/30/23

By jack martin on Jan 01, 2024 at 05:00 PM

Good Saturday wet morning,

The rains arrived overnight and the good news it is almost over.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

It was a quick hitter with around 8 hours of rain, and all while we were sleeping.

Good rain totals with 1/2 to an inch of rain locally and around 2 inches at some locations. Refugio had around 2 inches.

Today will be dry and cool the rest of today and most of Sunday, before another system Sunday night into Monday.
This will be very similar to last nights rain, but much less in total. No more the 20/100, Or less then 1/4 of an inch. Rain in LA area will likely roll into new years morning, but clear out for the game in Pasadena.

Next week we are now beginning to get a feel for the weather, which is looking to keep the storm door open all week. These do not look like big systems, but it looks like rain Tuesday night into Wednesday then another storm for the weekend. We will feel it out as we get closer to the 3rd storm.

Bottom line we will start off the new years with dampness, but not crazy wet.

After next week it looks like we are in for a great the week following if the long range models hold together.

Have a great weekend and New Year’s Eve, I am sure we will be typing away before the new year.

Jack Martin

12/29/23

By Jack Martin on Dec 29, 2023 at 07:47 PM

It was a wild day if you were sightseeing at the beach yesterday with high tide and high surf at 10:30 in the morning and got quite exciting. I was reading that nine people went to the hospital in Ventura from that rogue wave that flooded everything out.

Today, high tide is at 12:30 and the wave heights will not be quite as high. Still, it will result in the same issues where parking lots will get flooded

Weatherwise, we have rain coming in this evening lasting overnight into Saturday morning. Looks like anywhere from half an inch to 2 inches is likely. Overnight tonight into Saturday morning you can take a look at Zoom Earth you’ll see high clouds over us now and the front will move in later in the afternoon, creating light to moderate rain. Rain rates will not exceed 1/2 inch per hour.

This will not be anything like the last storm, but the accumulations will be decent. Some southeast winds will enhance the rainfall on south-facing mountains to 2 inches. Winds can blow in the hills to 45 miles an hour from the southeast.
https://zoom.earth/

Looks like Saturday afternoon it will clear out. We’ll have a dry Saturday night and Sunday morning at least. Consensus on the next system is still not clear and may completely miss us and stay west and go south.

We have to see how that all plays out. Next week it looks like we’ll have two dry days, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then another system coming in Wednesday night and Thursday. This does not appear to be a strong system only light rain. 

Have a great day, if you're going to the beach watch the waves at all times and get ready to run 🤔🤣

Jack Martin

12/27/23

By jack martin on Dec 27, 2023 at 06:26 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

With theses holidays, I have to pause for a moment and trying to think about what day it is.

Today, Wednesday, zoom earth shows us that all the storms and energy is north of our forecast area. Northern California and the Pacific Northwest is seeing all the action.
https://zoom.earth/

The system to the north will sag south later today, but it looks like any rain that squeezes out will remain over SLO and maybe western Santa Barbara county. Where rain occurs it will likely be 1/10 of an inch.
Here is SB it looks to remain dry.

Thursday a weak ridge builds in through mid day Friday. Then another stronger system arrives Friday night and Saturday morning. This one does appear to bring everyone some rain. Expect 1/2 to 1 inch of rain for most out of the system. SLO could see a little more and south facing mountains of SB up to 2 inches. Ventura and LA will get wet, but more of 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch.

Sunday looks to be dry, but beyond that the models are not in agreement. There is some chatter about rain New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day, but all models differ at this point. It does look like a ridge will build in next Tuesday bringing dry weather for the start of 2024. Looking into the extended forecast there does not appear to be any big systems on the forecast for the first full week of January 2024.

Enjoy your week