Jack's Weather Report

Good Sunday morning,

Waking up this morning you will see the rain is back. Today we have a weaker system rolling through that will cause rain for the first half of the day.

Radar shows the rain falling currently  https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

We are expecting around ½ of an inch out of this system, with a few areas in northern SLO mountains seeing 1 to 2.5 inches at locations like rocky butte. This will fall apart as it reaches LA, meaning just some rain will occur there, ¼ inch or less.

A slight break this afternoon, then here we go again tonight. The opening act will begin to play into the weather. This will start out with lighter rain tonight and most of Monday . by the time Monday night comes the headline act starts, and it will blow us up. then the encore for Tuesday.

 “All in fun showing this as a concert “ Monday night and Tuesday is the heart of the storm.

This will be a great system with lots of heavy rain. Rain rates will be ½ inch to 1 inch PER HOUR. the heaviest rain comes in 2 punches Monday night and Tuesday.

Rain total will be 2 to 4 inches coastal, 3 to 5 inches south facing areas “like us in SB and Montecito”. 4 to 8 inches in the mountains, and up to 10 inches in some hills in SLO . “wow”

With the grounds being saturated with all the rains, this is going to make creeks and rivers flow fast. some flooding is likely in some areas.

Rain clears out on Tuesday night, then a ridge builds in for 2 days with dry weather Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday, yes, another system rolls in. If that’s not enough they are calling for another big system next weekend and are still on the storm track for another week after that.

We are in the middle of the wettest period in a long time. it is amazing to me, but I love it. let’s fill those lakes!

Amazing changes to the lake levels. Nacimiento is now 40% full https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=22189 Cachuma 36.5 and climbing Dashboard (cosbpw.net)

I was in the Santa Ynez valley yesterday and the hills are all green and so pretty, with water running into lake Cachuma. It is a beautiful site.

Ok, that's all for today, from weather😊

 Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

One more dry day, before we are back into the rainy pattern. It is just crazy to think about how long we have been in a wet pattern.

The first storm started after Christmas on Tuesday the 27th of December, and it is now the 7th of January, so we are going on for 2 weeks now.

The crazy part is we still have storm after storm on tap until at least the 15th of January. That is almost a 4-week period of rain with only short breaks. Don’t think that I am complaining, we need the water supply. however, I don’t remember the last time we had this much rain in a 4-week period. Maybe 2005 or 1998. All good let’s get this over with and fill the lakes and reservoirs

Today, we will see a nice dry day. A little cooler than Friday, but overall a nice day.

Tonight, the rain will start up overnight. This system will stay more to the North and will bring us a lighter rain at ½ to 1 inch.

(it is funny to talk about a lighter rain at ½ to 1 inch ) rain will fall off, as it gets towards LA with 1/3 of an inch at best.

Sunday some morning rain, then we will see some peaks of the sun in the afternoon.

Sunday night the big system starts to affect our weather. This will be bigger than Wednesday’s storm, but it will act the same way. Subtropical winds will bring light to moderate rain all day Monday.

Monday night and Tuesday are game on, this will bring us heavy rain and some flooding. The ground is saturated, and water is going to flow strongly in the creeks. They are even talking about flooding in the Ventura river that wipes out the campground and homeless camps. We will see good south flow and winds. Coastal winds are 30 miles an hour from the south and mountains are 60 miles an hour. Rainfall is 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains. Just crazy amounts of rain we have not seen in many years.

Wednesday a few showers, but the storm will pretty much be over. It looks like Thursday and part of Friday will be dry.

Saturday another storm might be strong again. As a matter of fact the national weather service is calling for rain to continue, on and off through the 15th of January. Lake Cachuma has now hit 36%, with 50% looking quite good by Thursday of next week if not more. Dashboard (cosbpw.net) . Check out the full moon that Adam sent photos of, they are great shots

enjoy the day then lots more rain to follow

Jack Martin

Wow, what an amazing result from all the rain. Take a look at the Pictures of the Santa Ynez river yesterday later in the afternoon.

That dry river is flowing strongly.

Today is all about the high surf, the weather will be nice as we should see 2 dry days, before more rain Saturday night.

Right now I am listening to the local news, they should get my weather report because they are reporting lake levels with little change.

Let me give you the real facts.

The storm Wednesday was less than thought because the system blew through faster than expected because of the winds, But the results for the rain were fantastic for lakes and reservoir levels.

Gibraltar reservoir is overflowing since 11 am yesterday, with all the rain in the hills flowing into lake Cachuma.

Lake Cachuma is now at 35.1 % up over 3% in one day. With Gibraltar full, the lake will rise much faster. Click here Dashboard (cosbpw.net)

With more rain this weekend and next week, I am betting we can get to at least 50% at Cachuma by Wednesday next week.

Disclosure!! this is just me thinking about what is coming “not scientific “😊

So what’s to come, is lots more rain. Starting Saturday night 1/2 to 1 inch overnight.

We will get a break Sunday, then more rain starting Monday ahead of the Main front Monday night.

Yes, another atmospheric river is to hit Monday night. This system will be stronger or equal to Wednesday’s system. Adding another 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains: ”wow”

Even more rain into late next week and hints of another system early the week following.

For a La Nina year, I think we are doing pretty well with rainfall 😊

I love the rain, even if it makes my world crazy at work!

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

The good news for flooding, the system moved through faster and has underperformed.

https://zoom.earth/#view=38.4,-108.5,4z/map=live

The heaviest rain is now in the LA area, with showers for us for the rest of the day. There should be another wave that will hit us late morning with heavier rain.

Rain totals have been less with around 2 inches in the past 24 hours coastal and around 4 inches in the mountains. still good rain in total, but filling the lakes is the goal.

Today showers all day, but this afternoon we should see some peaks of the sun. Everything clears out tonight, and Friday will be a dry day. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA current rain totals

Friday will be a dry day, and Saturday during the day, but more rain Saturday night. This is a weaker system with 1/2 inch coastal and 1 inch in the mountains.

The great news is we are on the storm track for the next 10 days through next weekend. More rain Monday night and this might be another strong system.

Looking deeper into the extended forecast there is another storm later in the week. Needless to say, all the rain of late is keeping the ground saturated and creeks flowing.

This is great news for the lake levels, it will just take a little longer to fill them, but with continued rain, it is good news.

On a side note, Northern California has been getting hammered. Snowpack is 171% of normal for this time of year.

This is great news for runoff later in the season and water supplies.

Enjoy the rain!

Jack Martin

I thought I would give a quick update. The rain has started delayed slightly but it will hang around longer.

The latest update now shows up to 10 inches falling in the mountains with rain rates at 1 ¼ inch per hour later tonight. Rain will really start to come down hard around 10 pm and last into the Thursday morning hours.

All systems go for our storm system, with minimal changes. Rain amounts and intensity forecast remain unchanged, with the caveat of mentioning isolated totals to 10 inches and rates to 1.25 inches per hour. The storm will peak in intensity tonight over SLO and Santa Barbara Counties and over Ventura and LA Counties Thursday morning. The storm looks to move very slowly over Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, which is why they will likely see the highest amounts.

This is a lot of water and the threat of flooding is a real concern. Expect a lot of roadway flooding, including a few freeway closures.

The Thursday morning commute will be bad. Several small streams will likely flood and spill over. Stay out of and away from any creeks and drainages as these could become dangerous quickly.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning, 

Before I get into the weather forecast, I want to let everyone know that my forecast is on my website daily. If you miss or want to read past forecasts for fun reading. just go to https://www.aroofing.com/  then on the top center there is a tab Jack’s weather report. Click on that and you will see the current and past reports.

Now for the report........

Today’s date is 1234 but not in that order. We are starting out quite warm out there at 57 degrees. Today is also the start of the next storm system and this will be one we will remember for some time. All the ingredients are in place. Strong pacific closed low, south winds, and subtropical moisture.

here is how it looks right now. https://zoom.earth/#view=37.4,-126.4,4.87z/map=live

All of these elements are present that spell a very strong system that will affect us for the next 26 to 30 hours. Light rain is starting up right now across the area, this is on the light side and will continue to be light to moderate though out the day. This will be a steady rain from the warm air across the area. This will last for a good 12 hours, and accumulations will be anywhere from 1/4 to 3/4 coastal, but because of the south winds in Santa Barbara and especially the southern mountains of SB. SLO and Ventura will see 1 to 2 inches of rain ahead of the real Action.

Tonight the strong low moves over us, this will bring 60 to 70-mile-an-hour south winds to the mountain ahead of the big rains. This evening the heavier rain will begin to ramp up, as the closed low gets closer. By 10 pm we should see this event really begin. Rain rates will get to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour coastal. On south-facing mountains, they could see 1 inch plus per hour at times. Rain will fall for a 30-hour period from now to noon Thursday. Rainfall will be 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains.

Thursday at noon the system leaves and we will have a dry Friday to recover from this system.

For the weekend, the wet pattern continues. A weaker low arrives Saturday and will affect SLO county and possibly Santa Barbara county.

Monday a stronger system affects us all with early rain totals of 1 to 3 inches. 

Later in the week, there is even one more system that will affect us.

Needless to say, we will be seeing a lot of rain over the next 10 days, with today’s system being the biggest. 

Enjoy the craziness, we really need the rain to capture in our dry lakes, all creeks will really be flowing by the end of the day. The good news is no creeks are predicted to overflow. We will be testing the new debris basins. 

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Yesterday the rain really underperformed with only ¼ of an inch of rain. This will not be the case starting Wednesday.

Today is all about preparing for the rain starting Wednesday morning. It will be one of the biggest storms we have seen in many years.

To start the forecast today I wanted to talk about lake levels because the numbers are soon to change.

Lake Cachuma will hit 32% today, Gibraltar is at 57% and once it spills on Thursday all the water will flow into Lake Cachuma https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf  

Yes,  you heard me Gibraltar will spill.

This is great news for our lake levels and this storm will be the strongest since the Mudflows 4 years ago. Don’t worry It will not be a repeat of that.

The hills are stable, and we will not see as much rain as that event, but it will pour overnight Wednesday and the first half of Thursday.

…..I guess I have your attention now …..

Today will be a dry day, with no rain. High clouds will start to roll in this afternoon as the warm front arrives overnight Tuesday.

Rain will start up Wednesday morning with a good south flow, this means good steady rain, but the rates will not be more than 1/3 of an inch per hour.

We will still see good accumulations Wednesday with 1 to 2 inches falling on south-facing hills. Then Wednesday night the event really starts. Heavy rain will occur with rain rates of 1 inch per hour, the Santa Ynez mountains could see 1.5 inches per hour at the peak. Rain will continue into the first half of Thursday heavy at times.

When the rains start to back off, we will see 2 to 4 inches coastal, Montecito 5 inches, and the Santa Ynez mountains 6 to 8 inches. This spells great news for lake levels.

Thursday afternoon the rain begins to back off, with some showers possible. Rain showers will continue in the forecast on and off through the entire weekend.

Next week we are looking for 1 more system on the 10th, then we should see a break “Amen”

As I said today is about getting ready for this one. It will be a busy day at Action. If you need help, we will be there in force.

Have a great day, dry for 24 hours, then the fun begins.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning 2023,

I hope everyone had a nice New Year. Banks, government, schools, and banks are all closed today, but not roofers.

We will be preparing for a busy work week, with lots of rain to come. Today is a break until tonight, then welcome back rain.

https://zoom.earth/ 

As the morning progresses, we will see high clouds start to stream in. This will not bring any rain until tonight.

Monday night into Tuesday we will see more rain, likely ½ to 1 inch with 1 more inch in the mountains. It is amazing because San Marcos Pass has received over 21 inches of rain since Sept 1st and 65% of the annual rainfall, and that does not include this week’s rain totals.

Countywide we are at around 50% of annual rainfall.

and 169% of the average for this time of year. needless to say, we are on the right track for above-normal rainfall for the season. Lake levels have not been updated because of the holiday. Nacimento 27% Cachuma 31.7% but all levels totals are growing and will continue to increase. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Tuesday will be dry, with a small pop-up ridge. This will bring a warmer day with a high in the mid-60s. However, this will be short-lived.

Wednesday the rain starts, this will be like Saturday’s storm, but stronger. Rain will start up Wednesday morning just like Saturday’s system. This is the prefrontal rain and will be on the lighter side bringing another inch of rain. Look out Wednesday night as the Main front arrives. This will be the event, south flow, atmospheric river, and heavy rain. This will bring lots of rain. Coastal 2.5 inches, foothills (Montecito) 4 inches, and the mountains of Santa Ynez over 6 inches of rain.” It will be wild. “

Rain will fall through Thursday then we dry out Friday, for the weekend the storm track continues, but it looks to shift to the north. The rain will be around, but we might see only smaller amounts. The bay area will continue to see lots of rain. Looking into the crystal ball more rain the week of the 9th through Wednesday, but after that, it looks like we might see a break

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/santa-barbara/ext

In the short term, we will see lots of additional rain this week, with flooding possible Wednesday night and Thursday. I will be watching the lake levels all week.

Enjoy one more dry day and the Rose Bowl parade and game today. We will be back Tuesday with the next update

Jack Martin

Good New Year’s day, don’t forget to put a 23 at the end of the date now.

How sweet was that rain yesterday, the forecast models performed perfectly, and the system overperformed.

We saw great rain totals for all. Just in the past 24 hours, San Marcos Pass 4.5 inches, Montecito 3 inches, and Santa Barbara 2.5 inches.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA That’s just a great way to end 2022!

If you were bold enough to go out last night, this is what you saw (movie above) “Thanks Polly “

Today, it is a warm start at 50 degrees, but the mercury will only rise 9 degrees to 59 degrees with wind out there.

With the rain and the wind the views today should be fantastic, the islands looking close enough to touch.

Monday we will have a chilly start to the day, but dry for most of the day. More rain will arrive late afternoon and in LA later Monday night.

This system will be weaker with only ½ to 1 inch. Still decent but we are spoiled right now with the heavy rainfall totals of late.

Tuesday the rain ends, and we dry out for 2 days, but look out Wednesday night. If the models are right this is going to be a repeat of last night and might even be better. Rain will continue through most of Thursday heavy at times and totals 2 to 4 inches and much more in the mountains. This system will be over a 12-hour period, which means it will pour at times. I can’t wait to see how this week’s rains affect the lake totals ( more to come).

Friday and Saturday are dry with more rain arriving Sunday and the week following.

Always great news to report lots of rain to come.

Happy New Year 2023!

Jack Martin

Good morning New Year's Eve day, 

Rain, what a wonderful 4 letter word for California to have. 

Looking back I can not remember the last time that we had 3 weeks of rain straight with just some short breaks.

Well, that’s what it is looking like, with rain all this next week and the week following. We will start out with the present and work from there. 

This morning 12/31/22 the prefrontal showers began last night. We have seen steady light rain all night amounting to .15 to .20 for most locations, however, the heavies rain is still 8 hours away. Here is zoom earth to show you from the sky https://zoom.earth/

The heavy rain is just north of the Bay Area right now, for us Today we will see the light rain continue this morning, then gradually pick up as we get into the afternoon. this is a cool graphic showing the heavy rain moving down the coast of California https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EOM980NrNw4

The bulk of this storm will arrive around 5 pm to midnight for Santa Barbara, with a few hours earlier to the north and later for the south. This has good south winds and good subtropical moisture support, which all spell a heavy rain event. Rainfall rates will be .50 to .75 inches per hour at their peak. Rainfall will be 1 to 3 inches coastal with 3 inches in Montecito and up to 4 inches in the hills. All in all just what the doctor ordered to help our drought. Winds in the mountains will be 40 to 60 miles an hour on south faces which will enhance rainfall. 

Sunday and New Year’s Day, the sun will shine. It will be quite chilly but a nice day to welcome 2023. 

Sunday night will be quite chilly with the 30s and 40s for all. 

Monday if you are attending the Rose parade, dress warm because it will be in the 30s to start the parade.

The good news is it should be dry, as that tradition continues. 

On a side note :

Do you know how many people have moved to California after attending a rose bowl game? I really don't know the numbers, but I was one of those back in 1981 when it was 89 degrees on Jan 1st. “That was a life-changing call for me “

Now back to the weather. 

Monday for us will start out fine, but more rain will arrive in the afternoon. This is not a big system, but it will keep us all wet. 

Tuesday is another dry day then look out for Wednesday. If the midrange models are correct this will be the biggest system of all. At this point 2 to 4 inches and double that in the mountains. We could go on with the extended forecast, but it is controlled by computer models at this point so we will save that for another forecast . Just a hint, if the models are right, we still have another week of rain into the 10th of January. 

In the meantime, Happy New Year in 17 hours and enjoy the rain. 

Jack Martin