Jack's Weather Report

On another rainy day,

Good Wednesday morning, for more rain …. Where the rain has been on the lighter side, it is adding up quickly. In general, the forecast has been right on track, but some higher totals so far.

Basically ranging from .50 to 1.5 inches so far, but climbing. The pass has seen over 1.5 inches. Goleta 0.70, surprisingly Montecito is at 0.47 but climbing now. The big winner so far has been at Rocky Butte with 2.5 inches.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA  You can see on the satellite that we are just seeing the leading edge of the front which will move past us in the next few hours before we will get a break before the heart of the storm arrives https://zoom.earth/ 

The main low is in Nor Cal and will move south quickly this afternoon, however, we will get a break this morning into mid-afternoon. Where the first part of the storm has been steady with overall light to moderate rainfall. The second wave will be Interesting, with heavier rain likely at times due to cold air, thunderstorms, and south winds. This will arrive later in the afternoon and last into Thursday Morning. The rain will be heavy at times, the total might not be as great as the first wave. We are likely looking at another ½ of an inch, coastal, and another 1 inch in the hills, higher amounts during thunderstorms.

All in all, this storm will over-perform than originally thought. “ That’s the story of this rainy season”.

Snow levels will drop today and bring snow down to 3000 feet tonight. Expect some snow in the local mountains Thursday morning. The system clears out Thursday afternoon and we are looking for a nice weekend, warming each day.

Saturday and Sunday we will warm into the upper 60s with lots of sunshine, and the second dry weekend in a row.

Next week, when the models are still not in agreement. There will be a weak system moving through early next week, but it is looking to be dry or at least weaker.

The good news is Saturday welcomes April, and we are hoping for spring weather and a warmer, drier month.

Enjoy the rain, it is adding up…   

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Today should be a nice day before more rain arrives tonight. Last night it was a great sunset, it is nice to see later sunsets once again.

Today you can see the spinning low over the Pacific Northwest which will start its move south today  https://zoom.earth/ The only effect this will have today is some high clouds will start to roll in. Rain will start up later tonight from 5 pm to 8 pm ahead of the front.

This will bring rain overnight with light rain only. Rain totals overnight will b around 1/2 inch for most. Wednesday morning the first wave will be through, and there will be some clearing into the afternoon before the stronger, colder part of the storm arrives. This will bring unstable air, and heavier rain at times into Thursday morning. This will bring us some south winds, with the hills in Montecito can see some enhanced rain. Nothing crazy will this system. another 1/2 inch for coastal areas with a total of around 1 inch. mountains and foothills 1 to 2 inches. Nothing crazy, but another wet 36 hours.

Thursday we still can see some showers, but the system will move out by the afternoon. It does not look like the daytime hours Wednesday or Thursday will be a washout. We will see some sun breaks during the day. Most of the construction world will still be able to work both days.

Looking into the weekend we will be cool with a warmup Saturday and dry through at least Sunday. Next week the jury is still out with a few weak systems moving through to the north.

It Is more likely these will stay to the north of the forecast area, but time will tell.

April is near, and hopefully, drier weather will start to prevail.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

Another chilly start to the day with 32 in Santa Ynez, 39 in Camarillo, and 41 in Santa Barbara.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.0698547363281&lat=34.61796626893967

Highs today will vary due to the winds. Camarillo will see the warmest weather with 73 degrees due to the Santa Ana winds. SB 65 and Santa Ynez 68, overall a nice day after the cold this morning.

Tuesday now looks to be dry during the day, before the next cold system arrives Tuesday evening. Right now you can see the low-pressure system spinning in the Pacific Northwest.

https://zoom.earth/ This will drop South Tuesday and bring us more rain, cold temps, and Mountain snow. Snow levels will start off higher Tuesday night at 5000 to 6000 feet then drop on Wednesday to 2500 to 3000 feet by Wednesday night. Rain will start up Tuesday night and last through Wednesday night, and possibly into Thursday morning. We are expecting ½ to 1 inch coastal and 1 to 2 inches in the foothills and mountains. Thursday night the Spring Northwest winds will come up as the system clears out. As we work our way through another week and into the weekend, we will start a slight warm-up and dry weather.

We are looking for an extended period of dry weather. let’s hope that April will bring us dry weather and warming.

Enjoy 2 days of dry, before we get a storm with 1 inch or so of rain.

Have a great week, March is almost over …

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Finally a break from the rain, Amen. Today will not be cloudless but it will be dry. More sun on Friday and no rain until Tuesday.

First, let’s start with rain totals for the year to date.

This chart goes back to march 1st, so you will need to look at the graph and chart it yourself. As of yesterday, 8 am Santa Barbara is at over 33 inches for the year ( this does not include rain from yesterday). With yesterday's rain, we are over 34 inches. Normal rainfall is 18.24 inches. We are almost double for the year we are way over double for the season. I really think it will be hard to beat the record year of 1998, of 46.97 inches.

likely we will get to #2 for this year that goes until October 1st, 2023. Personally, there is no way I want to break a record;” I have had enough of this rain”.
https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Historic%20Data/Rainfall/historical%20graphs/100yr%20Rainfall.pdf 

Here is where we are at as of Wednesday at 8 am: https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

As you can see we are getting really high on the chart. With this last system, we have received 1.5 inches to 5.25 inches of rain in our local area. San Marcos pass is getting close to 30 inches, in the past 30 days https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

Now the forecast for today and into the next week. You can see the North flow and the system moving out of our area. https://zoom.earth/

Today there will be some clouds and even some build-ups over the mountains. There is even a very slight chance for 1/10 of an inch of rain over the hills.

Tonight, north winds take over and we will see 20 to 25-mile-an-hour winds to the north with gusts of 35 miles an hour. We will see how the trees hold up.

Friday winds switch to the Northeast. Temps will only warm slightly, with frost in some valleys Friday night.

The weekend will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Sunny and dry through Monday day.

Monday night into Tuesday the next system shows up. another cold system with .75 inches of rain to 1.5 inches. Also cold with 4000-foot snow levels.

We are hoping this will be the last system for a while, enjoy the dry days for the next 5 days.

ok, that’s my weather for the day, now off to my day Job.

Enjoy the dry weather.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning, 

It seems I always start the weather report with a good morning. Today as I thought about this being the 12th atmospheric river of this season. I almost put otherwise in the heading. 

Today we will see another very colorful map from the national weather service with warnings and watches for all,  and high surf, coastal flooding, and winter storm warnings and watches. We have it All.

https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Last night did everyone get the warning on the TV, cell phone, and radio of a tornado watch in Ventura? Here is a short video from yesterday from Ventura where a tornado did land.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/HWcTAtvm9rhobnUR9  (thanks Peter)

Besides this, I don’t know how many trees tumbled for the day, but I knew of at least three by 10 am. Regarding rain Tuesday the main front went through a little faster than originally thought, so the skies started to clear around 11 am then turned to showers. 

Then crazy rains, thunder showers, and hail in the afternoon, and last night made the afternoon exciting. Rains have resulted in 2 inches in Montecito, 3 inches on the Pass, and 1.5 in most other locations.

This is not over yet. We will still see another 1/2 to 3/4 and possibly more in the mountains today. The low-pressure system fueling all this cold air and activity is still spinning over the Bay Area.

https://zoom.earth/

This is throwing some minimal shower activity over us, but as the day progresses the front will open and move south. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

This will create more rain for all. The more frequent showers look to be in the afternoon before it all moves East tonight.

Snow levels are dropping to 3500 to 4000 today, snow is likely in the higher elevations and the Grapevine today. 

Thursday through Monday looks to be rainless, still some clouds at Times and very cool weather. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with temps 15 degrees below normal.

Thursday night strong north winds will come up and likely topple more trees 🌲 No I don’t own a tree company, but keep those trees trimmed. 

Friday and into the weekend some minimal warming, but at least no rain.

Monday also looks to be dry at this point, but another system will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, the strength does not look as strong as this one, but the way this season has gone it might pick up strength over the next few days. Right now that’s in the future, we need to get through the rains for today.

For Thursday's report, the excitement will be the rain total for the season to date. 

Jack Martin

Here we go again, but today we will see a little of everything with strong south winds, heavy rain followed by cold temps tonight, and lots of snow in the mountains.

The low-pressure system started to bring rain last night and will pick up steam as the day progresses. The parent low is further South than typical, so due to pressure, gradience winds will be strong from the south. https://zoom.earth/

Winds today will be 15 to 30 miles an hour coastal, 30 to 60 in the foothills, and 60 to 75 miles in the mountains. This will lead to numerous trees dropping throughout the area. If you are listening to the news, you know that a tree dropped on the southbound Carrillo st south on the ramp that is now closed.

It is likely many of those fast-growing eucalyptus trees will fall today. The tree trimmer will be quite busy today, along with roofing contractors …..

It seems this has been an endless rainy season, with the heavy rain just starting up now. This will continue until noon then tapper off some. We have seen around ½ to 1 inch so far, but the real rain will fall in the next 6 hours. Coastal we will see 1.5 inches of rain and double that in the mountains. We are expecting 2 to 3 inches coastal, 3 to 6 in the mountains, and possibly more on south-facing mountains.

As far as snow goes snow level will start out at 5000 feet and then drop to 3500 feet tonight. Mountains will see high winds, multiple feet of snow above 5000 feet, and 2 to 10 inches at 3500 feet above tonight. needless to say, being outside in the mountains is not the place to be.

It does look to be a wild day with all the tarps on roofs whipping around. Rain will fall on Wednesday but be more showery on Wednesday.

The bulk of the rain will fall today through noon, afternoon the rain will tapper some.

The good news is after the rain stops on Wednesday; We will see dry weather through Monday. Chilly with only highs in the low 60s. Then Tuesday is another chance of rain. Will this ever stop, well it does not look like the rain will stop in March, The good thing April is right around the corner.

Have a great day in the rain, we will be getting wet on roofs again, please let this stop…soon ….

Here is the radar right now https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning, 

The National weather service was perfect with Sunday's forecast. Most of the Santa Barbara area received 1/10 of an inch or less. With SLO in the 1/4-inch range. 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

Today the calm before a much stronger storm arrives tonight. You can see the parent low spinning to the north and the subtropical clouds north of the forecast areas. 

https://zoom.earth/#view=31.9,-135,4.72z/map=live

This will allow us to have a dry day here, but as the spinning low drops south, so does the AR (atmospheric river). Rain will start off lighter overnight then the real Action begins on Tuesday morning. The National weather service has now moved up the heavy rain to Tuesday morning now. This system is going to be different from the last but offers the same result with lots of rain heavy at times. The main difference is the good southerly flow and wind. It will become quite a wind from the south starting Tuesday morning with strong winds along with a period of 3 to 6 hours of heavier rain, likely mid-morning.

Rain rates will be .5 to as much as 1 inch per hour. This will result in 1.5 to 3 inches of rain coastal. 2 to 4 inches in the mountains and 5 inches on the south faces of Montecito. Just look at this colorful map, with lots of watches to come https://www.weather.gov/lox/

This is also a colder storm with snow levels varying from 3500 to 6000 feet. Snow levels will start at 4000 feet climb to 6000 Tuesday and drop to 3500 feet on Tuesday night. How much snow? above 6000 feet is looking at 2 to 4 feet of snow. above 5000 10 to 20 inches, and 4000 2 to 10 inches. 

Wednesday we will see lots of showers due to the colder air. This Wednesday will be wet compared to the last Wednesday due to the cold air and showers. 

Thursday, we dry out again. The good news is we are looking at the first dry weekend in the past 6. Don’t get too excited because chatter is about another storm possible early next week. Don’t count the chickens before they are hatched, the 7-day forecast is still a way out. We trust a 7-day forecast as much as a 2-year-old not getting into trouble. We will focus on the current rainy weather which will only boost our season's rain totals getting us closer to the top of the wettest rain season on record. There is no way we will top the 1998 El Niño year, but #2 is still possible and we are likely to double the normal rainfall for the year. 

Enjoy the rain, you don’t have a choice.

Have a good dry day Monday, lots more rain to start tonight.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning, 

Well, the rain is almost over for now. The Santa Barbara area was the target of this storm, with light rain still falling at 4 am. Yes, poor Pearl got wet again this morning. The storm totals were very impressive for our area as the south-facing area had the greatest rainfall. In Santa Barbara and Montecito, almost 4 inches of rain fell. The Pass had around 6 inches 

Looking to the north and south the numbers dropped quite a bit to around 1.5 inches. It is quite the contrast from us. This was thanks to the south flow and our lovely mountains.

Here are the results:  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA We just had another day of 24 hours of steady rain. Please let this STOP. 

Now we are off to hump day, the good news is the rain is almost out of the picture as the last of the showers roll through this morning. Thank goodness we will see a break and sunshine. https://zoom.earth/#view=28.7,-112.7,4z/date=2023-03-15,03:00,-7/map=live

It looks like Thursday and Friday will be dry, but another weak system for the weekend, yes I think this will be 4 weekends in a row. This system is much weaker, and could actually miss us, but the models really can not make up their minds at this point. Rain in SLO for sure, then we will see how far south this goes. 

Looking into early next week, Monday will be dry. Then Tuesday another storm and another atmospheric river. This will bring us another round of moderate to heavy rain, of which I don’t want.

We will see the predicted rain totals as they start to come into the picture over the next few days. 

In the meantime enjoy cooler temps, sunshine, and dry weather for at least a few days.  

Tomorrow, I will give you the season's rain total for the year as we continue to climb toward one of the top 5 wettest years recorded. 

Smile, the 🌞 is near us for a few days. 

Jack Martin

Wet Tuesday morning,

Here we go, as we wake you will find rain outside. Pearl was not happy about working her way to the rain and wet grass this morning to do her business.

The rain right now is on the lighter side, but the intensity will really pick up around 10 am at the skies open with heavy rain throughout the rest of the day and tonight. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=laxqpslox

2 to 5 inches coastal, 4 to 8 inches in the foothills, and over 8 inches in the mountains. These are just some crazy numbers.

I just read the National weather service forecast discussions. the wording was Greek for most of you.  

The biggest item that I got out of this is we will have a big storm with clouds topping at 34,000 feet.

The low-pressure system this morning is pushing south and combining with the sub-tropical moisture.

With all the ground completely saturated and the heavy rains and winds.  We are going to see the creeks turning to rapids with trees, power lines down, and slides in numerous areas.

I am still amazed at this rainy season’s weather, which just does not go away. The models have shifted to a wet pattern continuing for the next week.

Friday afternoon into the weekend, we will see a weaker system with ¼ to ½ inches of rain. Dry weather for the first 2 days next week then “OMG” another AR will bring us rain midweek.

This also looks to be a good rainmaker at this point, but time will tell. The only good news after almost 3 weeks of on-and-off rain in March is we will likely get into a dry pattern for the rest of March, then April arrives where we generally will have drier weather . “let’s put this rainy season behind us “ California has really been hammered with rain and snow this season.

Just look at lake Tahoe with the snowpack at the #3 year on record and after today they will be #2 which was in 1982,  41 years ago.

https://snowbrains.com/651-currently-3rd-snowiest-winter-ever-recorded-in-lake-tahoe-ca-and-theres-more-coming/  “(Thanks Adam for this info)

Here is the Zoom earth shot from the sky, you will see the big blob heading right at is https://zoom.earth/#view=45.3,-108.1,4z/map=live

That’s it for now, get ready for a wild day.

I will likely give some updates during the day as the strongest part of the storm arrives

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

It was great to see the Sun on Sunday, even if it was just for a short time. The best was the longer daylight into the evening.

I even found myself out on the deck with the heaters glowing, the extended daylight felt like spring would be coming soon.

Where we are all hoping for spring, the weather gods feel differently. Today we will see relatively dry weather through the day.

This will give us time to get ready for a significant storm that has a formula for heavy rain. This one has better dynamics than the system Friday.

We have off the coast the AR (atmospheric river), good south flow, and strong rotation with this next front. This means Santa Barbara mountains will get hammered.

Are you ready for the forecast !!! As the saying goes a picture tells 1000 words, just look at the satellite move the picture to the right and you will see the AR coming in from Hawaii.

This is the fuel. look to the North as the low starts to drop  https://zoom.earth/#view=40.3,-127.9,4z/map=live with the 3 ingredients coming together look out.

Like I said earlier today is going to be dry, with only some fog or drizzle in a few locations. SLO will likely stay foggy most of the day. Highs will be in the low to mid-60s.

This morning we are starting out quite warm with most areas in the 50s, because of the marine layer, blanketing over us. We have today to get ready for the event.

As we get into tonight the low moves closer and the event will begin, It will start out with light rain overnight before the real event begins. Then from 7 am to late Tuesday night, the heavy rain arrives. It will be a wild day with rain rates of ½ inch to 1 inch per hour. With the saturated ground, the creeks will have a heavy flow. On top of that the south-facing mountains will see the greatest rain, with 7 inches possible. The coastal and foothills in Santa Barbara and Montecito will see 2 to 4 inches locally. The good news, if any is the rain will be shorter than the last system.

The bad news is rain totals will be greater. We will be in a flash flood watch ( this means flooding is possible) If it turns into a warning that means it will happen (we are not there now ) So don’t worry. It looks like the rain will taper Tuesday night and Wednesday we will begin to dry out with only some showers possible.

Thursday dry. Then Friday a weak system will come toward the central coast, hopefully, any rain will stay to the north. Time will tell us, then late in the weekend one more weak system. We are not even going to pay attention to them at this point.

If you believe the 30-day forecast we should start into a dryer period (  I do not ) Just look at what they say about tomorrow the 14th https://www.30dayweather.com/en/d/united-states/california/santa-barbara/  obviously this has not been updated. As always, the only forecast you can begin to believe is a 7 to 10-day forecast.

If it means anything, I am hoping for 70s 😊

Get ready for hopefully the last wild event of the year.

We will send out a new update Tuesday morning or later today if it warrants.

Jack Martin