Jack's Weather Report

Good Monday morning and the last day of September.

This week it is all about summer weather in the first week of October.

Looking at the map for southern California there are lots of colors https://www.weather.gov/lox/

When we see this there is something happening this week. This week it is all about the heat, except right at the coast.

This morning coastal areas will see fog to start the day, but inland areas heat up all week long.

High pressure has moved in and so has offshore flow. You know want this means, all valleys and interiors will be hot all week long.

Valleys will warm up into the 90s this week, interior back to 100 degrees and coastal areas will see 80s.

Indian summer will bring us great weather warm to hot conditions.

Welcome to the first week of October and summer weather!

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning and 9/20/24,

Lots of fun with the weather and weather report today.

We will talk about the low pressure system to the east, La Niña for the winter season and fun at the One805 event at Kevin Costner's later today.

We will start with the current weather.

It has been very interesting watching this low pressure system rotate counter clockwise in the middle of the state the last few days. If you look closely right over Bakersfield you will see the rotation of the system https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.78,-117.9,5.87z/date=2024-09-20,00:00,-7

Now it has been very interesting to watch, but coastal we have not seen any rain but to the East over the interior they have seen some heavy rain. This system has been moving very slowly down the coast for days now. It will move further East and South as the day goes on. In reality, along the coast, we really will not likely see any Action for a few reasons.

1. The system centers pretty far to the east and rain clouds are not making this far west
2. Due to the Eastern location and counter clockwise motion the north - south coastal mountain will keep the rain on the East side. This really means we will be in the “rain shadow.“ Now if this low was over the pacific ocean it would be a big rain event for us, but it is too far east.

Rain chances through the morning on paper is 30% for 1/10th or less here. That’s not much rain and 7 out of 10 areas will see no rain.

Highs today lower 70s. Tonight pressure gradients takes over and we will have a change in pressure as low pressure depart and high pressure starts to build in which means we get wind. We will see some wind later tonight up to 40 miles an hour, not crazy, but enough to take note.

Saturday high pressure builds in and we turn to summer conditions through Wednesday of next week. Highs will start in 70s, then 80s, followed by 90s in the local valleys with the hottest day being Monday. High pressure remains till Wednesday then a very weak low will do nothing more than increase the marine layer and cool us off.

Did I mention this was going to be a long weather report?

Now the second part of our forecast is about the El Nina - La Niña chances this winter this is where it gets interesting, and the link below is great, because you can listen to the rundown and look at graphics. If you don’t want to watch I will give you the cliff notes, but I encourage watch if you a weather buff.
Cliff notes ….
We are looking at a weak La Niña, which means dryer then normal in southern half of California, then wetter and colder in the Pacific Northwest and average in Nor Cal.

Weak La Niña mean an average of 83% of normal rainfall here for the winter, last year we had over 150% of normal and some areas 180% of normal.
Now watch and read this, it is very informative:
https://www.abc10.com/article/weather/california-la-nina-winter-wet-dry-conditions-rain-update/103-b00dc542-a681-40c0-998d-439e356a2de4

Now to the last item … the One805 event today. It should be a great event as it has been. A great out door event with a line up of great musicians who for the most part live locally, hosted by Kevin Costner to support the first responders of California and Santa Barbara https://one805.org/events/one805live-fall-2024/. There will be lots of celebrities there last year we got to see Oprah, Harry and Megan and others.

Just check out this line up, pretty cool that we live where we do and we have all these people living near us. Pink, Kenny logan’s, Alan Parsons, Kevin’s band, Al steward, Rich Marx and many more names.

The weather should be good with low 70s to start the show and cooling into the 60s at night. (Bring a light jacket) hopefully the wind will stay somewhat calm.

See you there, it will be a blast with my 5 hour energy keeping me awake till 9 or 10 pm. “Since my day typically starts at 2am when some close the bars ( not me ) … “

Have a great weekend and I hope I did not bore you 😃
…. See you at the 805 if you are there …

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

A very interesting weather pattern for the next 24 hours. Looking at zoom earth you can see the low pressure system spinning in the interior area, away from the coast.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.8,-129.1,4.84z/date=2024-09-19,02:00,-7

This is an unusual system for this time of year with some colder unstable air. This system is also well inland so the moisture supply is very limited because it is away from the Pacific Ocean. The low is also moving very slowly which means coastal areas will likely stay dry again today, however interiors have a flash flood watch in some locations due to the potential for thundershowers.

So what does this all mean for us ….. today along the coast is looking to stay mostly dry until tonight when we might see 1/10th of an inch of rain.

If you are to the northeast it is a different story. There is rain currently east of Paso Robles and thundershowers can bring heavy rain at any point today. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

I do remember a system like this last year with the same results. Interior area got heavy rain and coastal locations got nothing. We will see if this system follows the same line as the day and night progresses.

Bottom line rain chances along the coast have been reduced to 10% today and increase to 40% tonight. Inland valleys like Santa Ynez stand a better shot for some rain, but the real action will stay more to the East.

Friday the system goes East and we start a warming trend. This will bring back summer like weather through mid week, and possibly longer.

Temps will be in the 60s today, 70s Friday, 80s Saturday and valleys will see some 90s into next week. Just great weather if you want more summer temps.

Until then we will see what Action we get with this system.

Have a great day, I don’t think you need to change any outdoor plans unless you live well into the interior areas.

Have a great Thursday

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

We will have interesting weather over the next few days, it will be more January like then September like. Temps today will drop 5 degrees, and Thursday will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

Today, no change in weather. The low-pressure system to the north is slowing down and we will not see any rain until Thursday morning now and really this storm does not pack much of a punch.

You can see it spinning well to the north, and the rotation will not drop over us until Thursday morning https://zoom.earth/

SLO and northern Santa Barbara county may see some rain over night, but Santa Barbara south it looks like Thursday late morning will be the time we start to see rain.

This however will not be a big storm, looking at 1/10th of an inch or less.

Rain drops into LA later in the day, but weakening will bring less precept. SLO could see ¼ an inch, SB south 1/10. The biggest change is in the air temp where 60s for highs are likely for all.

Friday the system clears out and moves East. This will bring some warming, but temps will still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, warming through the day 10 to 12 degrees.

Saturday through Monday, much warmer weather with temps rising each day. Monday will be the warmest of the next 7 days, with 90s in the valleys and 80s coastal.

Now you’re up to date, dry today, then some light rain Thursday and much cooler.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

The cooler weather will continue through Thursday, then a nice warmup Friday through Sunday.

Today it looks like the drizzle chances are going away, as the system from the Seattle area weakens, leaving us with just chilly conditions.

Highs today will be lower than Sunday with highs today only in the 60s.
You can see the dining system on zoom earth
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=39.7,-126,4z

Tuesday a brief ridge between systems then Wednesday another weak system rolls through.

Wednesday clouds will roll in and rain chances begin in the morning in SLO and the drop towards us in the afternoon. Rain is looking more likely if you consider 1/10 of an inch rain. Rain chances are at 40% and favoring the more likely side. This is a moisture starved system, so like I said totals will remain low at 1/10th or less.

Thursday the system moves out and we will start a nice warm up.
Friday we begin to warm up each day into the weekend. The weekend is looking great as we get warmer each day. Highs 70s to lower 80s coastal and some 90s in the valleys. It will be a fantastic weekend once we get through the weak systems this week.

Yes, Fall is coming, but it feels like it now here. The good news is fall really has little affect on our area where we see nice weather all the way through October.

Last night the sunset was fantastic as the sky looked like it was on fire.

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Wow, it is going to be a shock to your body with the weather change this week.

It looks like highs will only be in the 60s in Santa’s Barbara and in the valley upper 60s to low 70s, but lows will get into the 40s each night.

Changes are clearly the word of this upcoming week.

As far as the rain chances, there is good chance but accumulation in 1/10 or less.

This will be the result with damp mornings through at least Monday. A little warmer Tuesday followed be another weak system Wednesday. This appears to be moisture starved, so less rain with that one is likely.

Temps all week will be below normal by 10 to 20 degrees.
If you were looking forward to fall weather your wish has come true.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.03936767578124&lat=34.62134254994314

The second half of the week will start to-warm up with highs Friday of 73 in Santa Barbara and Saturday a nice 78 degrees. Valleys will get back into the 80s for the weekend, but night and day temp changes will be 30 degrees.

Enjoy the fall weather, it will be a jacket start to your days and maybe break out your long pants, might be chilly for shorts.

Ok you ready for the week, enjoy,

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

A significant date of the past. Crazy to think back, because I remember all the events of the day between work and what was happening.

Now let’s talk about the weather, it will be considerable cooler for the next week with some fog, drizzle possible.

Today a low-pressure system rolls through, with cooler temps for the most part. some fog and some dampness for areas, but nothing substantial to talk about.

Highs will be in the lower 70s coastal and lower 80s in the valleys

Tonight, we will see wind due to a change in pressure. Winds will be on the central coast, Santa Ynez, Santa Barbara up to 45 miles an hour later in the day and evening (put your umbrellas down)

The rest of the week, we will just see cooler weather, then on Sunday another low-pressure system in the gulf of Alaska will affect us again into Monday morning.

This will bring us a deeper marine layer and even drizzle or possible some light rain. Don’t count on more than a few 100s of an inch. it is not a big storm, but it will likely be quite damp Monday.

You can see the system well into the gulf of Alaska https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=32.7,-86.41,5z

Looking further into zoom earth you will see the cat 1 hurricane entering the gulf states in Texas and Louisiana. This will bring all of them lots of rain.

In the Baja there is a weak tropical system that will affect Cabo into the weekend. lastly Seattle is getting a little rain today into Thursday.

That’s your update for the day, enjoy the cooler weather.

Jack Martin

Looking at the dates of this week, it should be interesting with history and superstition.

Wednesday is 9/11 and Friday is Friday the 13th.

Weather wise we are looking at one more hot day, then the heatwave begins to break. Tuesday through the rest of the week we will see temps drop to a point of normal.

Highs today will be a few degrees lower than Sunday, but not much. Upper 80s coastal, 90s foothills and over 100 in most other areas.

Tuesday we will see a system in the northwest cool us off and bring back onshore winds. This means a return to fog along the coast and reasonable highs. Midweek coastal areas will see 70s and valleys mid 80s which is a welcome relief for all.

Monsoonal moisture has moved East and the threat of thunder shower has left our area, with less muggy conditions.
Looking at the tropical areas, Texas will see a hurricane this week, but will be on the weaker side.

On the west coast in Mexico there is a disturbance that is being watched. This could affect cabo later in the week. (If for some crazy reason you would go to cabo or Mexico this time of year watch the weather and expect hot a wet conditions.)
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Ok that’s it for now, one more day of heat than a break.

Stay cool, it will get better is 24 hours

Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

Today is all about the heat. Just look at the banner on the national weather service site https://www.weather.gov/lox/

High pressure is peaking today with off shore winds keeping everyone hot 🥵 except right at the coast where the cooler pacific will keep temps in the 80s, but just 3 miles in it will be 100 degrees. Today almost everyone will see temps of 100 or more in valleys and of coarse interiors. Santa Ynez will see 107.

The only bit of good new is we will likely see a break as we get into the new week.

Temps will slowly start to drop mid week as a system moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This will just cool us down with onshore flow returning.

Sunday night and Monday sundowner winds are likely, these can blow up to 45 miles an hour as pressure gradient produces northwest evening winds in SB.

Looking at zoom earth you can tell that high pressure over the 4 corners is keeping all clouds away, however with the heat it does bring some chances for thunder showers https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=41.5,-152.2,4z

It looks like mainly to the south and over the mountains, but some clouds will be visible even in Santa’s Barbara. Thunderstorm chances in the LA mountains stand at 20% later today and Sunday.

Today might be the perfect beach day if you can find parking and beach space, because high tide is at 1221 pm at 5 feet. The water temp today is 65 degrees and air temp will be around 80 degrees. Now that’s perfect 👍 weather at least, but a lot of bodies on smaller beaches will look like the Jersey shore with groups right next to each other.

Have a great weekend and stay cool 😎, AC for most will be blowing all day.

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

Friday arrived fast this week after the labor day holiday.

I figured I needed to get a weekend report out today, because it is going to be very hot everywhere.

We have been talking about the heat for a week now, and where it has been quite hot in the valleys and interior.

The heat has now hit the coast. You know when it is 74 degrees at 4am that it is going to be a hot day.

Just look at the national weather service title page with red everywhere https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Today along the coast will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Just in the foothills a few miles away mid 90s.

Heading over the hill to Santa Ynez, get ready for a shock at 110 degrees. Palm spring 115 plus, it is 99 degrees there right now.

The hot weather will continue through the weekend then beginning next work week we should see temps begin to back off.

Until then, record heat is likely in areas. Stay cool it will be very hot everywhere

Jack Martin