Jack's Weather Report

2/11/25

By jack martin on Feb 11, 2025 at 07:41 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

Sorry for the late report, I had to fly to North Carolina for a conference on a red eye last night and I had to catch up on some 💤

So let’s get right down to business.

Today calm, no real excitement. Time to get ready for the next round of storms.

Tonight a weaker system moves in over night which will bring some lighter rain Wednesday, earlier in the morning. Looks like around 1/4 to 1/2 for the start.

Wednesday afternoon a lull in the rain, then it picks up again Wednesday night.

Thursday, rain and plenty of it. Heaviest rain will occur Thursday and Thursday night.

It will be heavy at times, and under thunder storm areas 1 inch per hour is possible, but for the most part rain will be 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour. Bottom line we will get plenty of rain Wednesday through Friday morning. Santa Barbara 3.5 mountains 3 to 6 inches Here are the totals for the storm
https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Rain will tapper off Friday during the day. This system will be a classic winter storm with good moisture support and a mild atmospheric river.

The ground after last week’s systems is now saturated so we will see good run off.

Flooding is possible especially in the burn areas.

Friday afternoon we clear out the rain, then we look at dry through at least Tuesday of next week.

This week's rains will bring much higher rain total than the last system and this will also be a stronger wind event.

Get ready, it will be a busy second half of the work week

Jack Martin

2/10/25

By jack martin on Feb 11, 2025 at 12:45 AM

Good Monday morning,

It is going to be another very wet week, with potential heavy rains on Thursday that could produce 1 inch per hour rain fall. Here is zoom earth setting up the excitement
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

For the short term, we have 2 days of dry weather then it all changes on Wednesday.

It looks like a slight chance overnight Tuesday, but the rain will arrive sometime Wednesday. This week’s rain will come in 2 phases.
Wednesday will be colder air and rain will likely be 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch.

It looks like we will see a break on Wednesday night, but the big rains will arrive on Thursday and Friday. This will be a warmer and wetter system with our famous atmospheric river fueling the rains. Rain will be heavy at times and in a 2 day period we can see 2 to 4 more inches. Rain rates with 1 inch per hour can make flooding and debris flow likely in the burn areas, similar to what we had in 2018, but not here, in the fire areas south of us. This will also be windy with the low spinning counterclockwise pulling the subtropical jet from the southeast and dumping more rain on south facing mountains.

It is going to be an interesting period to watch so stay tuned for updates.

The short term models will come out on Tuesday and we will define the track better.

Bottom line, cooler weather this week. Highs in the lower 60s then rain Wednesday, followed by heavy rains on Thursday into Friday.

Stay tuned, it will be an interesting week

Jack Martin

2/7/25

By jack martin on Feb 07, 2025 at 05:27 PM

Good damp Friday morning,

Looks like the rains are now over for the week, with the next rain coming next Wednesday night.

Now lets look at some details. After a long drought with no rain, we are happy to report 5.5 inches of rain on San Marcos pass, 3.5 inches in Montecito, and 2.5 in Santa Barbara this week.

Here are all the numbers for this week https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today we dry out and all weekend. Cool weather with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, but sunshine. Overnight lows will be in the 40s along the coast and 30s in the valleys.

Superbowl Sunday we will see 60s for a high and sunshine.

Next week we will see dry weather through Wednesday, then the next system arrives Wednesday night. The next system can be a weaker system to a strong system as models are not in agreement yet. If on the stronger side, we could see 3 to 6 inches and lighter 1 to 2 inches. still a good system. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.67434685677291&lat=34.44085109148044

In the meantime, Action will patch up some roofs, it is nice to have the phones ringing again.

Have a great weekend,
Jack Martin

2/6/25

By jack martin on Feb 06, 2025 at 06:47 PM

Good Thursday morning,

Sorry about the lack of report on Wednesday, it was a travel day for me.

Santa Barbara and surrounding area did received good rainfall with the first system. Here are the numbers https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Now we will dry out for 1 day then more rain is on the way for tonight into Friday.

This next system will not drop as much rain, but still good totals will accumulate. It looks like .5 to 1 inch along the coast, 1 to 2 inches in the mountains. The rain will start up later tonight and fall into Friday with showers likely.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Here is the next system and rain approaching https://zoom.earth/maps/precipitation/

After that it looks like we will see a break into next week with a weak system for the second half of the week.

In the meantime we are happy that the rains have arrived and fire season will come to a close for now.

Have a nice weekend, some winds on Saturday and Saturday night, but Super Bowl Sunday will be nice but cooler.

I return late Friday, it has been very nice here in Mexico!

Jack Martin

2/4/25

By jack martin on Feb 04, 2025 at 05:56 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

Wet weather is coming, but it does look like Santa Barbara and south will not receive any rain until this afternoon.

Looking at zoom earth you can really get a good picture of the low pressure system way to the north spinning in the sub tropical moisture. Nor Cal is still getting the brunt of the storm, but the south end of the AR will hit us. SLO will see rain this morning, with some showers starting now.

Santa Barbara will likely not see rain till this afternoon and the bulk of the rain coming tonight and most of Wednesday.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Winds will pick up this afternoon, and rains will follow. It looks like the first storm will give us .75 to 1.5 inches of rain through Wednesday.

Thursday day will be dry but a second fetch of moisture will give us more rain Thursday night and Friday, this will be less in totals .5 to .75 for most areas. No real flooding concerns since it will not be too heavy. It does look like a clear weekend, but highs in to 60s at best.

Super Bowl Sunday will be cool but dry.

Enjoy the much needed rain,

Jack Martin

2/3/25

By jack martin on Feb 03, 2025 at 06:51 PM

Good Monday morning,

One more day of dry, then rain will be a part of most of our work week.

Looking at zoom earth you can see the fog hugging the coast and the AR remaining in NorCal, but now working its way towards us.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Today will be dry, but rain chances increase as the AR tracks south. We will get the tail end of the AR, so rain totals Will not be crazy.
Rain tonight in SLO to SB, but SB will be light 1/10 and northern SLO could see an inch.

Tuesday will be a rainy day for SB and SLO county. Ventura and LA will remain dry till noonish. Rain will be moderate Tuesday with lighter rain. The bulk of the rain will come Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain will be moderate with .5 to 1 inch in SB. More on south facing mountains.

Thursday showers, but more rain Thursday night. Friday into the weekend we should clear out. It will be a wet week which we welcome. Nothing crazy, just enough to give us much needed rain.

Have a good week, turn off your sprinklers

Jack Martin

2/2/25

By jack martin on Feb 03, 2025 at 06:50 PM

Good Sunday morning,

Short range models are now taking over the forecast. As mentioned the short range models are more accurate. It does now look like the rain will now develop Tuesday during the day, but the bulk of the rain will be Tuesday night through most of Wednesday. You can see the numbers in this forecast, but we should get decent rainfall totals, click the link below
https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Rain in SB will likely start up Tuesday morning, and be on the light side for Tuesday daytime. This as we get into the night rain picks up and Wednesday will be wet all day.

Thursday is looking to be dry, then a second impulse will arrive Friday and give us some additional rainfall.

It does look like we will dry out Saturday and through the weekend
Enjoy 2 more days of dry weather, then let the rains begin. God knows we need it.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,
Jack Martin

2/1/25

By jack martin on Feb 01, 2025 at 03:46 PM

Good Saturday morning,

Welcome to a new month and hopefully plenty of rainfall.

NorCal is getting a lot of rain right now as the atmospheric river is pointed right at them. You can see this in SF and above, with some energy sagging south to the upper tip of SLO county Sunday into Monday
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KMUX/standard

For us, south of the AR we will see a nice weekend with warming trend into Monday.

Some north winds Sunday night will be felt due to the pressure gradience north to south. Monday another dry day for us, but the next system will start its way north to south.

Tuesday morning rain will begin in SLO county then work its way south towards us Tuesday afternoon. We will see rain Tuesday night and Wednesday on the south coast with moderate rain fall totals 1/2 to 1.5 inches. The system will move slowly so showers could last into Thursday. Another weaker system is possible for Friday into the weekend. On Sunday we will get a better handle on the rainfall amounts as we go from long range models to short range models that are more accurate with the forecast and rain totals.

Enjoy the nice weekend with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s in the valleys and cool winter night as usual.

The new month has arrived and the rain is coming Tuesday evening.

Have a great weekend with more to come.

Jack Martin

1/31/2025

By jack martin on Jan 31, 2025 at 05:25 PM

Good Friday morning,

Today is the last day of one of the driest months on record for our area. A matter of fact one of the driest 9 months in history. We are happy to say goodbye to January 2025.

Saturday ushers in a new month and lots of rainfall for NorCal, as an atmospheric river will bring rain to SLO and lots in the SF area.
https://zoom.earth/

For us no rain until Tuesday night into late Wednesday. It does look like we will see 1 inch coastal and 2 to 3 inches in the mountains. This will be a welcome relief, as it has been way too long of a dry period.

For the weekend to will be a little warmer, but still chilly. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will be warmer where fog exists, but still quite chilly in the valleys.

Dry Monday then rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. This is a warmer system with snow levels at 8000 feet.

Have a great weekend, more to come.

Jack Martin

1/27/25

By jack martin on Jan 29, 2025 at 07:02 PM

Good Monday morning,

As we wake up out there you can see stars in the skies in many locations. That’s not a good sign for more rain.

The low pressure is still spinning out over point conception but there is not a lot of moisture to work with so any rain will be minimal and showery in nature.

Today is Santa Barbara it will be Chilly, breezy and for the most part dry. There is still a chance of rain, but mainly to the south of us.

How much rain did we get, the best answer is “not enough”. The rain totals were really all over the board, with some areas getting decent rainfall but others getting almost none.

Santa Barbara saw ½ inch, with Goleta FS #14 seeing 1.76 inches, then Montecito .09 inches and the san Marcas pass 1.16 inches. as you can see the totals were really about where the showers were heaviest.

https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA Ventura and LA really saw the bulk of the rain.

Here is what it looks like from the sky, you can see the spinning low, with very little moisture imbedded. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.38,-113.15,5z/date=2025-01-27,03:40,-8

Highs today will be in the upper 50s, with most areas not making it to 60. Right now, it is 45 degrees in Santa Barbara and 32 in Santa Ynez.

It will be dry and cool the rest of this week with the next system coming in Friday night into Saturday. This will affect mainly SLO and Santa Barbara county and it will likely be on the weaker side.

Looking into the future all we can do is hope for a wet February which ushers in on Saturday. February is the shortest month of the year, but typically the wettest month also.

We will hope for lots of wet weather during the month of February, and a March miracle. until then, it looks to be dry the rest of January.

Hope everyone enjoyed the rain, and Ventura loved the hailstorm for excitement yesterday

Have a great week as always!

Jack Martin