Sharon Fritz

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• 11/14/24

  Thu, November 14, 2024

  Good Thursday morning, Lots of Action in the forecast, but no rain. Another chilly start to the day, with 49 degrees in Santa Barbara and 36 in Santa Ynez. I was in Santa Ynez at my grand daughter's soccer scrimmage yesterday, and wow, as soon as the sun went down, it got cold. Low pressure will drop south today with an inland track. What this really means is winds starting later today from the northwest 30 to 50 miles an hour in the mountains. Rain chance on the central coast, but really none here. Friday a very chilly day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and frost at night in the valleys. Saturday we begin a warm up with light off shore winds and a warning trend into into early next week. Highs will rise back into the 70s. Tuesday into Wednesday trends are for another moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event. This means high fire danger again. It is that time of year when this occurs every year in the fall to early winter months, creating our wild fire danger. I think it was Johnny Carson that said we have 4 seasons in California. Fire, wind, rain, and earthquake. This week is a full moon, look outside and check it out it would be Crystal clear for viewing. The fireball moon https://search.app/9DGpUHkLh4eJMeaz8🌕 Jack Martin

• 11/12/24

  Tue, November 12, 2024

  Good Tuesday morning, The weather system on Monday moved through and brought a little rain to SLo but none here. Only wind as predicted. Today the winds shift south with a mild Santa Ana wind event 20 to 30 miles an hour an hour winds, affecting the fire areas, but it will be short lived. Wednesday will be nice, warm and the warmest day of the week as a weak ridge builds in. Thursday the next system approaches with a chance for light rain. This system is also moisture starved, so only a little bit of rain is possible. This appears to arrive Thursday night at best, but likely will bring showers possibilities into the weekend. Not a lot of rain regardless but models will come together as the week progresses. Looking at all the Action, rain has been staying in the Pacific Northwest through recent. This is a likely trend through the period and we will see when we see the shift. In the meantime, we will see winds and some light rains as these systems only brush our area. As far as temps go, chilly nights, especially in the valleys and warmer days as the sun warms the earth. 30s and 40s at night and upper 60s to low 70s by day. Have a great Tuesday, talk soon Jack Martin

• 4/23/24

  Tue, April 23, 2024

  Good Tuesday morning, Lots of fog out there. Not as wet as yesterday but still quite damp. fog level is at 5000 feet, so higher elevations are seeing the drizzle. https://zoom.earth/ Clearing today is more likely, but reverse clearing. That means the coastal locations with see the clouds’ part before the valleys. looks like clearing will occur this afternoon, but it will be cool and chilly. Fog, low clouds, and drizzle are part of the forecast the entire week with a 20 to 30 % chance of morning drizzles. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.68313605338334&lat=34.43067150908138 Thursday a weak low pressure system will roll over us. This alone will not cause rain, but combined with the marine layer drizzle and light rain is possible. Friday another chance for drizzle, but this will be the last day of the gloom. It looks like the weekend through Monday we will be warming each day with more sunshine. Better news for Sunday we are looking at 70s and some 80s as we see more sun and high pressure takes over. April continues to be funky, just like the entire year of 2024 so far… just way to wet and chilly so far, we will hope for better weather soon. It must be coming, May is a week away. Jack Martin

• 2/20/24

  Tue, February 20, 2024

  Wow, where do I start today with what has happened since Sunday afternoon and even the start of Saturday? I can’t even remember back to Saturday when we saw that ¼ to ½ start to this storm. Remember when I called this storm an 8 out of 10 for February? And a 10 out of 10 for another other storm, well I was wrong. This will be an 11 out of 10 when it is all said and done. Just look at these storm totals since Saturday Montecito 7 inches, Santa Barbara 5 inches, San Marcas Pass 10.5 inches, KYTD tower 11.5 inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA And we are not done yet… The AR (atmospheric river) is just to the south of us, with still some light showers today. https://zoom.earth/ You can see the current radar showing most of the rain just south of us https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard Here are a few videos (attached San Ysidro creek ) on my YouTube channel toro creek 2/19/24 toro creek like rapidshttps://youtube.com/shorts/Kc7a7oJlRl4?si=6X_zxVQ26VL7gRSU So what do we have to look forward to? Today will be relatively dry with some light showers, areas Santa Ynez north mostly dry today. Tonight it starts back up again as the core of the low moves through. This will bring rain rates to 1 inch per hour and possibility of thunder and lighting and waterspouts. Rain will be heavy at times, which with all the rain we have already had, everyone should stay away from creeks. There could be some flash flooding due to the down pours. Rain will fall over night and into Wednesday morning. Rain should wrap up Wednesday around noon. Thursday and Friday will be dry, also likely Saturday. Then the next system comes in Sunday into Monday night. This is not looking to be wild like this one, ½ to 1 inch of light to moderate rain, but it will keep us very wet into early next week. Then hopefully a break so we can all dry out. Hang in there, one more round of heavy rain tonight. Then a break for a few days. This will be a historical February rainfall; we will be talking about this year for many years to come. That’s the fun for the day, now off to Action Jack Martin

• 2/2/24

  Fri, February 02, 2024

  Good Friday morning,  Where do I start today?  The first of 2 strong storm systems has passed through leaving us with impressive rain totals for a 24-hour period. Summarizing quickly, everyone saw 3 inches of rain. San Marcos pass 6.32 inches. The Santa Barbara area was hit the hardest. Here are the local numbers. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA Today we will see some north winds and a few passing showers. Nothing to be cautious of, maybe a few mountain showers. Looking ahead the big news is all about the next storm system. The grounds are saturated and the second system is right on the heels of yesterday’s system.  If you look closely at the forecast you will see that the timing of the rains starting has moved up by 12 to 24 hours. It does appear we will be mostly dry today and daylight hours on Saturday, but rain will move in Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday. This second system looks very powerful and long-lasting. Some models show showers into Wednesday or Thursday morning. The main event starts Sunday morning and lasts into Tuesday. There is a lot of subtropical moisture and a low-pressure system that is predicted to stall over us and pump in the moisture for up to 2 days. With the saturated ground and rain rates of a steady 1/2 inch or more per hour, it is going to make flooding of low-living areas likely. Updated rain totals have not come out today, but as of yesterday, they were talking about 3 to 6 inches in coastal and foothills, 6 to 12 inches in the mountains, and a 30% to 50% chance that coastal areas of south-facing hills (us) could see 8 inches of rain and mountains 15 inches. These numbers were from yesterday and I will wait for the updated numbers, but this system is looking to be the Holly grail of storms for the year. There will be significant flooding along some creeks and rivers. At this point, there is a 25% chance that the Ventura, and Santa Ynez rivers will reach flood stages. A  Significant rise in level will occur and don’t be stupid to try white water rafting. You laugh, but some folks will.  Regarding Montecito and the heavy rains. I have received a number of calls at this point. It is still too early to know how much impact there will be, but small stream flooding is likely and everyone should keep an eye on the forecast Sunday through Monday. This is when the heaviest rain will fall. I will update on a regular basis on Sunday and Monday.  Get prepared because you have  2 daylight days before a lot of rain falls, especially if you live in low-lying areas. More to come, we will be making the national news  Jack Martin

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