Articles by author: Sharon Fritz

Good Tuesday morning,

Lots of fog out there. Not as wet as yesterday but still quite damp. fog level is at 5000 feet, so higher elevations are seeing the drizzle.

https://zoom.earth/

Clearing today is more likely, but reverse clearing. That means the coastal locations with see the clouds’ part before the valleys.

looks like clearing will occur this afternoon, but it will be cool and chilly.

Fog, low clouds, and drizzle are part of the forecast the entire week with a 20 to 30 % chance of morning drizzles. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.68313605338334&lat=34.43067150908138

Thursday a weak low pressure system will roll over us. This alone will not cause rain, but combined with the marine layer drizzle and light rain is possible.

Friday another chance for drizzle, but this will be the last day of the gloom.

It looks like the weekend through Monday we will be warming each day with more sunshine.

Better news for Sunday we are looking at 70s and some 80s as we see more sun and high pressure takes over.

April continues to be funky, just like the entire year of 2024 so far… just way to wet and chilly so far, we will hope for better weather soon.

It must be coming, May is a week away.

Jack Martin

Wow, where do I start today with what has happened since Sunday afternoon and even the start of Saturday?

I can’t even remember back to Saturday when we saw that ¼ to ½ start to this storm. Remember when I called this storm an 8 out of 10 for February?

And a 10 out of 10 for another other storm, well I was wrong. This will be an 11 out of 10 when it is all said and done. Just look at these storm totals since Saturday

Montecito 7 inches, Santa Barbara 5 inches, San Marcas Pass 10.5 inches, KYTD tower 11.5 inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

And we are not done yet… The AR (atmospheric river) is just to the south of us, with still some light showers today. https://zoom.earth/

You can see the current radar showing most of the rain just south of us https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

Here are a few videos (attached San Ysidro creek ) on my YouTube channel toro creek 2/19/24 toro creek like rapidshttps://youtube.com/shorts/Kc7a7oJlRl4?si=6X_zxVQ26VL7gRSU

So what do we have to look forward to? Today will be relatively dry with some light showers, areas Santa Ynez north mostly dry today.

Tonight it starts back up again as the core of the low moves through. This will bring rain rates to 1 inch per hour and possibility of thunder and lighting and waterspouts.

Rain will be heavy at times, which with all the rain we have already had, everyone should stay away from creeks. There could be some flash flooding due to the down pours.

Rain will fall over night and into Wednesday morning. Rain should wrap up Wednesday around noon.

Thursday and Friday will be dry, also likely Saturday. Then the next system comes in Sunday into Monday night. This is not looking to be wild like this one, ½ to 1 inch of light to moderate rain, but it will keep us very wet into early next week. Then hopefully a break so we can all dry out.

Hang in there, one more round of heavy rain tonight. Then a break for a few days.

This will be a historical February rainfall; we will be talking about this year for many years to come.

That’s the fun for the day, now off to Action

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning, 

Where do I start today? 

The first of 2 strong storm systems has passed through leaving us with impressive rain totals for a 24-hour period. Summarizing quickly, everyone saw 3 inches of rain. San Marcos pass 6.32 inches. The Santa Barbara area was hit the hardest.

Here are the local numbers.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today we will see some north winds and a few passing showers. Nothing to be cautious of, maybe a few mountain showers.

Looking ahead the big news is all about the next storm system. The grounds are saturated and the second system is right on the heels of yesterday’s system. 

If you look closely at the forecast you will see that the timing of the rains starting has moved up by 12 to 24 hours. It does appear we will be mostly dry today and daylight hours on Saturday, but rain will move in Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday. This second system looks very powerful and long-lasting. Some models show showers into Wednesday or Thursday morning. The main event starts Sunday morning and lasts into Tuesday. There is a lot of subtropical moisture and a low-pressure system that is predicted to stall over us and pump in the moisture for up to 2 days. With the saturated ground and rain rates of a steady 1/2 inch or more per hour, it is going to make flooding of low-living areas likely.

Updated rain totals have not come out today, but as of yesterday, they were talking about 3 to 6 inches in coastal and foothills, 6 to 12 inches in the mountains, and a 30% to 50% chance that coastal areas of south-facing hills (us) could see 8 inches of rain and mountains 15 inches. These numbers were from yesterday and I will wait for the updated numbers, but this system is looking to be the Holly grail of storms for the year. There will be significant flooding along some creeks and rivers. At this point, there is a 25% chance that the Ventura, and Santa Ynez rivers will reach flood stages. A  Significant rise in level will occur and don’t be stupid to try white water rafting. You laugh, but some folks will. 

Regarding Montecito and the heavy rains. I have received a number of calls at this point. It is still too early to know how much impact there will be, but small stream flooding is likely and everyone should keep an eye on the forecast Sunday through Monday. This is when the heaviest rain will fall. I will update on a regular basis on Sunday and Monday. 

Get prepared because you have  2 daylight days before a lot of rain falls, especially if you live in low-lying areas.

More to come, we will be making the national news 

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

As the weekend approaches, so does the storm system to the south named Hillary. 

She is currently spinning at hurricane status west of Cabo San Lucas and will work our way up towards Southern California for the weekend.

We will begin to feel the effects of the humidity sometime on Saturday then with rain chances starting Saturday night in LA and moving into our area most likely Sunday afternoon through Monday.

It does still look like the greatest chance of rain is going to be from Sunday afternoon through Monday for the Santa Barbara area. Depending on how this tracks, the greatest rains likely going to be in LA and Ventura mountains. However, if the system will track a little bit more west, Santa Barbra get hit harder.

Regardless, everyone will see rain thundershowers from the system. How much is still in question, but in the range of 1 inch is likely at this point there’s a flash flood warning for areas south of us for their local mountains because of thunder showers. 

Any way you look at it, this is quite unusual for a tropical storm to impact us this hard along the coast. Although, this has been one of those years. Didn’t think I’d be preparing for rain in August.

Below is the local forecast. You can see the icons with thunderstorms and the percentages, so you’ll be able to get an idea of what is to come.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=193&y=120&site=lox&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=193&map_y=120

Looks like some marine layer to start the day. Then the marine layer will start to go away as the warmer air gets closer. Humidity increases it gets somebody out there. It will feel tropical.

Here is a cool graphic to see the winds and system spinning https://earth.nullschool.net/

Have a great day. Looks like we have two days before the rain arrives.

Stay tuned!

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning, 

The National weather service was perfect with Sunday's forecast. Most of the Santa Barbara area received 1/10 of an inch or less. With SLO in the 1/4-inch range. 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

Today the calm before a much stronger storm arrives tonight. You can see the parent low spinning to the north and the subtropical clouds north of the forecast areas. 

https://zoom.earth/#view=31.9,-135,4.72z/map=live

This will allow us to have a dry day here, but as the spinning low drops south, so does the AR (atmospheric river). Rain will start off lighter overnight then the real Action begins on Tuesday morning. The National weather service has now moved up the heavy rain to Tuesday morning now. This system is going to be different from the last but offers the same result with lots of rain heavy at times. The main difference is the good southerly flow and wind. It will become quite a wind from the south starting Tuesday morning with strong winds along with a period of 3 to 6 hours of heavier rain, likely mid-morning.

Rain rates will be .5 to as much as 1 inch per hour. This will result in 1.5 to 3 inches of rain coastal. 2 to 4 inches in the mountains and 5 inches on the south faces of Montecito. Just look at this colorful map, with lots of watches to come https://www.weather.gov/lox/

This is also a colder storm with snow levels varying from 3500 to 6000 feet. Snow levels will start at 4000 feet climb to 6000 Tuesday and drop to 3500 feet on Tuesday night. How much snow? above 6000 feet is looking at 2 to 4 feet of snow. above 5000 10 to 20 inches, and 4000 2 to 10 inches. 

Wednesday we will see lots of showers due to the colder air. This Wednesday will be wet compared to the last Wednesday due to the cold air and showers. 

Thursday, we dry out again. The good news is we are looking at the first dry weekend in the past 6. Don’t get too excited because chatter is about another storm possible early next week. Don’t count the chickens before they are hatched, the 7-day forecast is still a way out. We trust a 7-day forecast as much as a 2-year-old not getting into trouble. We will focus on the current rainy weather which will only boost our season's rain totals getting us closer to the top of the wettest rain season on record. There is no way we will top the 1998 El Niño year, but #2 is still possible and we are likely to double the normal rainfall for the year. 

Enjoy the rain, you don’t have a choice.

Have a good dry day Monday, lots more rain to start tonight.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

The calm before the storm, Today we will see dry weather with cooler temps. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. This is about 8 to 12 degrees below normal.

Did you know this has been the coldest winter in 50 years?

Thursday will be relatively dry with the rain chances not showing up here until Thursday night. Here is how it looks from the sky. https://zoom.earth/

On Thursday morning you will really start to see the development of this system. It will be crazy when the atmospheric river affects the areas.

This will be more to the north than to the south. Areas Morro Bay and north with see 4 to 8 inches of rain “yes that’s what the weather service is saying, coastal and foothills.”

Rain In SB will start up Thursday night lighter to moderate to start. Friday will be a washout in the words of the National weather service. Rain will be heavy in all locations point conception and to the north. Expect 2 to 4 inches in the Santa Barbara area, and possibly more in Santa Ynez. The AR river will move through Friday evening and then turn to showers.

It looks like a little rain Saturday, but the event will be over through Monday.

Tuesday the next system, models agree this will bring more rain and likely another 1 to 2 inches.

Wow, are we getting tired of the rain “ I am” . If you do believe the extended forecast, then we will see dry weather after the second system goes through.

Batten down the hatches once again, some flooding is possible. The snow level will be 10,000 feet, but the good news is the least rain will fall in the snow areas.

LA will see the least rain from the next system with ½ to 1 ½ inches.  Enjoy the fun or whatever we call it …..

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday Morning,

High pressure is creating a dome around us today, there is a weather system to the north, but not below SF https://zoom.earth/

It is mighty chilly out there to start your day. Waking up in the Santa Ynez valley it is a cold 32 degrees and in Santa Barbara a chilly 42 degrees.

The good news is we are starting a nice warm-up for the next 3 days, today is only slightly warmer but for each day to follow 70s is in our forecast.

Today we will see highs a few degrees warmer with the mid-60s and tonight slightly warmer with the mid-40s.

Wednesday Northeast winds and warming temps for all. Everyone will start to see low 70s and sunny skies. This is the start of the first heatwave of 2023.

Thursday is the warmest day of the week with the mid to upper 70s for all. Enjoy the outdoors at lunch or all day if you’re lucky enough.

Friday is still a great day with slightly cooler temps. Highs are still around 70.

Saturday a low-pressure system approaches, it is still not 100% clear what this will do, at this point, it looks to be dry, but much cooler.

We will have to see where this tracks to over the next few days, there still could be some showers Saturday.

Superbowl Sunday is cooler but slightly warming into the mid-60s and dry. A sweatshirt might be in order for outdoor parties.

Next week it still looks to be dry but cooler through midweek, with no rain in site at this point.

At lake Cachuma, the water level is almost 100% at 99.8%, just about ready to top, it is likely a release is in the future.

Enjoy the great warm weather for the next 4 days, especially Thursday.

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,
Chilly, cool and cloudy are the words of the day. As the day progresses we have a chance of some light rain mainly in the afternoon and evening then overnight. We will see some additional rain with approximately 1/4 inch or less along the coast and up to 3/4 of an inch in the mountains. Today will be quite chilly with temperatures 5° to 10° below normal. Most areas will stay in the 50s to low 60s. The snow level be quite low with snow in the local mountains. The snow level will drop to 2000' to 2500'.
Naybe some morning showers on Monday but not a lot of rain and it really won’t disturb the workday. Monday night everything clears out.
Tuesday we return to sunny but cooler temperatures. And that’s really the forecast for the week. There’s a weak system that will come in Thursday night and into Friday. It really shouldn’t affect our weather here but there may be a slight chance of some rain in northern SLO county. Saturday into Sunday it looks like another system will work its way towards us. No word on what that will do to us at this point.
As far as Lake Cachuma water level, we are at 98.4% and still continuing to rise very slightly. Lake Nacimiento is still at 86%. Just an incredible rise in Lake levels in a period of a month; amazing! Enjoy your cool Sunday. It’s a great day to watch football starting at noon. The Niners are playing the Eagles and I’m sure George’s house will be people yelling for every play the Niners do well. George I wish I could be there with you. Coming home soon.
Have a great day

Good Saturday morning,
It will be a quick report today because I have a busy morning. Today will be 5° to 10° cooler than yesterday as offshore winds turn to onshore flow as a low pressure system begins to move towards us. The only real effect for today is that it will be cooler than yesterday; sunshine and some clouds drifting in this afternoon… by tonight, there should be some winds from the northwest nothing over the top.
Sunday morning some areas will wake up to some light rain or drizzle. For the most part a dry day, cloudy and much colder. Temps will drop another 5° to 7° from Saturday. Snow level will be at about 4000 feet by Sunday night. Sunday night into Monday morning the rain chances begin. This will not be a big storm. Looks like anywhere from 1/10 to 1/3 of an inch depending on where you’re at and it will be quite chilly. Snow levels Monday night will drop to 3000 feet or below.
Tuesday things clear up and we should have a dry three days. Then on Friday a chance for another weak system coming through, but it appears that it will stay in northern areas of Santa Barbara and southern areas will stay dry. More to come on Sunday.

Good Wednesday morning, 

The excitement of Tuesday is behind us, all the wind and the brief downpour resulted in .005 of rain. The 20% chance turned into 100% where rain did occur for a short period, but other locations had no rain, because of the showery nature of the system. We even saw some brief hail. Pasadena saw the most hail with around 1/2 inch making the streets white for a brief time. 

The wild Tuesday is behind us, and we will fall back into untypical February weather.