Jack's Weather Report

12/18/23

By jack martin on Dec 18, 2023 at 05:25 PM

Good Monday morning,

Not much Action out there at this point, but there are a few interesting things going on.

It is quite warm this morning, crazy warm, 59 in Santa Ynez and 66 along the coast in Santa Barbara.
The rain really has been light to non-existent at this point.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=39.49,-130.75,5z

The upper low is too far offshore and rising to the Northeast, keeping the rain to the north.

Don’t fear it will still arrive, just giving us a little more time to get ready for it. Rain will arrive later this morning or afternoon, but this first storm will be much lighter.

Rain today and Tuesday will be around ½ an inch to 1.5 inch in higher elevations. Rain will start out light then pick up tonight and most of Tuesday.

The second storm is what it will be all about. This system promises to be a strong storm. This starts up Tuesday night into Thursday, but rain will occur into Friday.

This system will wobble down the coast, and park, pumping in moisture from the subtropical jet. Yes, we are still on track for a lot of rain.

How much? Well models are still saying 2 to 5 inches, with 4 to 7 inches possible on south facing mountains.

Saturday it looks like we clear up for Christmas.

Enjoy the fun, it will get much more interesting!

Jack Martin

12/17/23 - evening update

By jack martin on Dec 18, 2023 at 05:19 PM

Good Sunday evening almost 7 PM and look at me doing the weather report. What the heck! It was a fantastic weekend and ending Sunday night with great sunsets, but changes are happening fast.

I think I have said this a couple times but as the models get closer to the event, it looks like it is going to be a bigger event. I’m gonna have to monitor it as we get closer but rain will start up tonight. Won’t be super heavy Rain both on Monday and Tuesday with the first system accumulation 1 inch with the first.

The next system will arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday. We’re gonna see first wave of the system bring us another inch and a half.

Thursday and Friday is the wildcard but the wildcard is probably worth playing because it is looking like it’s gonna produce a bunch more rain. Computer models tonight are talking about 4 1/2 inches of rain and that may be pushing it a little bit but it’s gonna be a wet week. The good news and the silver lining looks like the rain will go away on Saturday and we should have decent weather for Christmas.

Of course, more to come, enjoy your evening bring an umbrella.

Stay tuned, rates go up this time of year 😂

Jack Martin

12/17/23

By jack martin on Dec 18, 2023 at 05:16 PM

Happy Sunday. Changes are in the air. As you look out side you see some mid level clouds starting to cover the skies. This will really do nothing other then give us a cloudy day.

Offshore winds will still keep us warm today with above normal temps with highs in the 70s. This afternoon winds shift onshore and rain on the central coast will start up. Don’t expect any rain for us until tonight. Rain totals will be light through the first system with approximately 1/3 of an inch or less through Monday.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=38,-131,4.84z

Tuesday still looks to be wet and the next system starts to move in, but rain will not be to intense.

The Wednesday through Friday period is when the real action arrives. We are expecting a weak atmospheric river with the cut-off low pumping subtropical moisture over us. Exact time is still not clear, but it will be a wet period at times 1.5 to 4 inches is likely out of the second system. It looks like we should be on the backside of the rain by Saturday. Bottom line it is going to be a wet week, enjoy the last dry warm day. After today highs will be in the 60s at best.

Jack Martin

12/16/23

By jack martin on Dec 17, 2023 at 04:55 PM

Well there it is the little bugger that is going to make next week wet and unpredictable.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Today off shore winds and high pressure will keep us quite warm, upper 70s to some low 80s. Tonight extra cold for most.

Now a slight change in the forecast.
Sunday looks to be dry most of the day. Then rain chances start up north to south late in the day.

Monday looks to be wet on and off with around 1/2 inch of rain in SB, more to the north and less to the south.

Tuesday is a change again. Yesterday it looked to be transition day, Now it looks to be wet and rain. Subtropical moisture will pump in from the south and give us rain.

Wednesday through Friday. The cut off low just spins off the coast and pumps moisture our way. How much and when is really open, since this is a cut off low.

We are expecting 1 to 3 inches through the period, but cut off lows can change things both ways. I do expect wet and especially south facing mountains of SB and Montecito.

Enjoy the nice weekend, because it looks wet most of next week.

Jack Martin

12/15/23

By Jack Martin on Dec 15, 2023 at 06:01 PM

Good Friday morning,

If you take a look at the satellite, you’re gonna see that offshore flow, and the ridge is keeping all the clouds away and pushing them to the north. This condition will persist through Saturday and matter of fact, Saturday will be the warmest day of the next seven with the upper 70s and some low 80s But quite chilly at night.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.9,-129.3,4z/date=2023-12-15,03:00,-8

Sunday picture begins to change high pressure starts to go away and the first system starts to move in. It does look like this will be pushed more to the north and rain will be minimal and not starting until later Sunday afternoon. With this being said we should see anywhere from 1/4 to a half an inch in Santa Barbara. Add a bit more on the Central Coast.

Monday Looks to be showering with possibly a quarter of an inch of rain.

Transition day Tuesday before a cut-off low arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. This is the system to watch. At this point, it appears the low is just going to spin around off the coast and pull up moisture from the subtropical and will just pump the rain into the area affecting the south-facing mountains of Montecito and Santa Barbara with the heaviest rainfall. It does appear 1 to 3 inches of rain is likely, but the exact timing is still not clear.

Looks like the period Wednesday through Friday are the most likely days for the heavier rain. The cut-off low makes it difficult to predict the exact timing and the amount of rain so stay tuned.

More fun to come 

Jack Martin

12/14/23

By jack martin on Dec 14, 2023 at 09:33 PM

Are we counting the days? We now have 2 things to count...
3 days of dry weather before rain arrives... 11 days until Christmas.

For the weather, you can see on zoom earth high pressure is keeping all clouds away for the next 3 days. Then a series of systems will begin to affect us starting Sunday.

Then next week, a second larger system for the 20th to the 22nd.

The first system will arrive Sunday into Monday. Rain chances start on the central coast Sunday morning and drop south through the day. This is not going to be a big rain maker, but 1/2 to 1 inch between Sunday and Monday. It does look like some rain on Monday.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker:
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Tuesday looks to be the only day between systems that will be dry.

The door opens up Wednesday through Friday for the second bigger system. Exact details are still a little sketchy for timing and rain amounts so we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out, but this does have a potential for heavy rain and a large accumulation.

In the mean time, enjoy 3 days of warm dry weather. Sunny skies and above normal temps through Saturday. Expect highs in the 70s to upper 70s Friday and Saturday. As always stay tuned, more to come.

Jack Martin

12/13/23

By jack martin on Dec 13, 2023 at 06:19 PM

Good chilly Wednesday morning,

Winds are shifting once again to off shore. What this means is above normal temps during the day and colder nights. There will be temperature change, day to night of 40 degrees in some locations.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.04623413085939&lat=34.6196473597972

Dry weather is expected through Saturday, then major changes are expected most of next week, with our first chance of rain Sunday into Monday.

Let’s start with current weather. Off shore winds will start to warm us up. Expect Friday and Saturday to be the warmest days. Highs in the mid 70s to 80 degrees in the warmest locations, but colder nights.

Sunday look for the first storm system to arrive, chances of rain starts during the day, especially on the central coast. Rain fall is not clear yet, but 1/2 to 3/4 on the central coast 1/4 to 1/2 in the Santa Barbara area and 1/10 in LA. This first system does not have a lot of moisture to work with.

After that it gets very interesting. Models are still not really aligned but if it all comes together we could see a series of storms affection us in the 7 to 12 day forecast leading up to Christmas. Right now, as it stands, we could see subtropical moisture combined with low pressure later next week. Should this happen we will see heavy rain, and likely a series of systems from the 20th to at least the 25th.

Nothing is for sure right now, but we need to watch this closely as we get into the weekend. It does appear we will be getting into a wet pattern, just how wet is still to be determined.

Stay tuned, this is the time of year where Jack's forecast gets interesting.

Jack Martin

12/12/23

By jack martin on Dec 12, 2023 at 04:52 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

Another chilly start to the day in the Santa Ynez valley at 36 degrees and 50 in Santa Barbara. Highs today will be around 70s.

Starting Wednesday some cooling as a weak front passes through affecting temps only. Off shore flow starts to build back up Thursday with warm on Friday and Saturday.

Highs in some valleys might hit 80 degrees on Saturday.

Starting Sunday things begin to change. Models are suggesting rain is starting, but are not in agreement at this point on timing or quantity.

The first system Sunday into Monday should be fairly weak with lighter rain. The big question pops up with the next system Tuesday into Wednesday. As we turn later in the week the short term models will take over and any questions should be answered. If the long term models are correct we could be into a wet pattern the 19th of December into possibly the new year.

Time will tell, but don’t bet the house on it at this point.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker:
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=55.1,-139.5,4z

Talk soon,
Jack Martin

12/11/23

By Jack Martin on Dec 11, 2023 at 08:50 PM

Good Monday morning,

This week will pretty much be a carbon copy of last week. I you are enjoying the nice dry weather; you will like this forecast.

Today some high clouds streaming over us and a high is around 70 degrees along the coast and 75 in the valleys. Nights will be in the 50s coastal and 40s in the valleys.

Santa Ynez is a chilly 39 degrees and 53 in Santa Barbara. here is how it looks from the sky https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.05,-112.86,5z

All week through Saturday it looks to be the same results, with nice days and highs around 70 to mid-70s.

Looking towards the weekend Saturday looks to be cloudier and then the rain word creeps into the forecast on Sunday. we will have to see how this plays out but I guess it is time that we start to see some of that wet stuff.

It has been a good run of dry weather allowing me to get caught up from all the rain earlier in the year. enjoy the dry weather this week, there might be changes upcoming.

I know the big question you have is what happened to El Nino? well, it is still in the picture and out there. El Nino typically hits us January through March and it is still likely to bring us an above normal rainfall for the weather year.

Our weather year goes from October 1st, 2023, to September 30th, 2024. don’t think it is off the table because we have been dry for the past few months.

The holiday season might be starting later in the mountains, but it is still more than likely to happen. Here is the latest of the possibilities.  https://www.newsweek.com/noaa-maps-el-nino-rain-snow-winter-1850730

Have a great week, you will likely need to look back in a month to remember the dry weather before Christmas.

Jack Martin

12/7/23

By jack martin on Dec 07, 2023 at 05:57 PM

If you live in the Pacific Northwest you've been experiencing an atmospheric river this week, flooding and lots of rain.

Quite a different story back in Southern California where the only real weather Action will be wind.

Today the tail end of the Pacific Northwest low will past through. No rain here, but this afternoon and tonight lots of wind. Especially the Montecito hills where 70 mile an hour gusts are possible.

As far as temps go highs will be in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, today and the next week.

It is pretty easy to sum up our forecast for the next 7 days, with the only real excitement is some wind at times.

Southern California will be perfect with highs around 70 degrees and lows in the valleys with 40s and coastal 50s. I think most of the country would Settle for our lows as highs. We will need a sweatshirt at best.

Enjoy the pre holiday great shopping weather. No excuses for the weather. Just don’t use those credit cards, unless you pay them off ever month because the interest will hurt.

Enjoy the weekend, likely no reason for a report Friday

Bring rain gear if your going to the Pacific Northwest

Jack Martin