Jack's Weather Report

Good Friday morning,

The cut off low is finally on the move towards us https://zoom.earth/

That means rain is on the way, but not during daylight hours most likely.

Rain tonight and Saturday. heaviest rain is looking to be overnight into Saturday 10am. Then turn to showers ending late Saturday.

Rain total we are looking at ½ to 1 ½ inch overall for coastal areas and 1 to 2 inches in the foothills and mountains. It can be heavy at times

Sunday wind, Montecito hills 20 to 30 miles an hour and 50 mile an hour gusts

Next week, offshore Santa Ana event will warm us up onto the 70s and 80s Monday through Wednesday.

Thursday (Thanksgiving ) an inside dry slider will only cool us off a little with highs in the low 70s.

Enjoy the rain, it will finally arrive after we have talked about this for 10 days now.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Look at Adams photo of the clouds yesterday, they looked like waves in the sky. A number of folks were asking me what type of clouds these were, so I had to go to the top and ask my friend at the national weather service. Mike’s comments “We've gotten a ton of calls and even my son called me from school wondering what they were. They are officially called Undulatus Asperatus. Basically they are a sign of unstable air aloft”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asperitas_(cloud)

Thank you Mike.

Moving on, with the forecast.

Yes, that cutoff low is still making all weathermen scratch their heads.

As discussed for the past week, it is just spinning out in the Pacific with little to no movement.

On Wednesday, the counterclockwise rotation did pull up some warm moist subtropical air which did give us brief rain showers and got everyone wet at times, but it really did not add up to much.

Also the winds at times really messed with the outdoor activities.

Now here we are one day forward and the cut off low is still spinning out in the pacific and pushing the rain out another 12 hours, until later Friday at this point
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=29.68,-114.56,5z

As mentioned yesterday, today looks to me relatively dry with only the Santa Ynez mountains seeing the most rain.

Here at lower elevations 1/10 of an inch or less today and tonight. Highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Friday is now looking to be dryer again though most of the day, but Friday around 4pm the low finally starts to move eastward towards us and the real rain will finally arrive.

It now looks like Friday night will be the wettest period with rain rates of .25 to .50 per hour. Rain will likely fall into most of Saturday with rain totals of 1 to 2 inches through Saturday.

Saturday night the system clears out and and Sunday will be dry and breezy.

Next week,(Thanksgiving week) is shaping up to be quite nice with high pressure building in and above normal temps.

Expect some areas to have highs in the 80s and chilly nights. Thanksgiving day is also looking quite nice.

In the meantime rain will happen, it just delayed a little longer.

Remember last week when we started talking about the never rain arrive Tuesday night, into Wednesday, now it looks like Friday later afternoon.

Don’t put away the rain gear and umbrellas, it is coming.

Enjoy the dryer day, we will pick this conversation up on Friday morning.

Have a great day, time to get ready for my day job.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Some light rain is working it way into the area right now https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

This is subtropical from the south with not a lot of dynamics, so rain will be light today and tonight.

Here is how it looks from the sky right now https://zoom.earth/ southeast flow will block a lot of the rain in Santa Ynez today, because of the mountains in Santa Barbara.

Rain amounts in the valley will be lower today. Santa Barbara we are looking at ¼ to ½ inch through tonight.

The rain will come in 2 waves, today much lighter, and Thursday is looking to be dry most of the day as the low just spins out over the ocean.

Friday the low moves over us and the heaviest rain will occur Friday into Saturday. it looks like 1 to 1 ½ could fall during that period.

Sunday the storm goes away, and we should have good weather all thanksgiving week. Yes, Thanksgiving is almost here.

Have a great day, light showers today, nothing crazy

Good Tuesday morning,

It looks like we have 1 more day of dry weather before the rain arrives.

Looking at zoom earth you can see the low pressure system developing well to the west in the Pacific. This will really start to sharpen and take shape over the next 24 hours.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=27.94,-123.74,5z

As mentioned, this system is a cut off low that typically has a mind of its own and it makes forecasting timing difficult. Which brings us to Tuesday at 5:30 am the 14th on November.

"what am I saying?" Well rain is on track to start on Wednesday, but it now looks like the heaviest rain is not going to occur until Friday and into Saturday.

This is all thanks to low pressure remaining spinning off shore until it begins to move closer. So here is how it looks as of today...

Wednesday, rain will start up after 10 am and will begin light to moderate 1/4 to 1/2 inch Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday some showers, but some sun also. It appears the low will not move and just spin out in the pacific until Friday.

Friday is now the day with the heaviest rain. Yes, back to the 1 to 3 inches part. As this low tracks closer the rain will pick up and a mild tap into subtropical moisture and bring southeast winds.

Depending on how quickly the system moves East will determine how long the rain will hang around. Right now it looks like it will continue into Saturday and end Sunday.

This is a moving target, as the models have not really been great with timing. Time will tell us lots more. In the mean time, dry today, light rain Wednesday, lull in the action Thursday and heavy rain Friday.

As I always said, cut off lows are like a 2 year old at the beach. You must keep one eye on them at all times, because you never know where they will wonder.

Stay tuned, more update to come.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

Let’s start with what a great weekend it was! Sunday was fantastic as everyone got into the 80s.

As you wake up this morning you can smell and feel the change. Onshore flow is back, and cooler temps are back.

Coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and inland in the 70s. This pretty much spells the weather the next 2 days.

All models are in good agreement the next 3 days, through Wednesday. Then the models differ.

Wednesday is now looking to start off dry, then rain will pick up from north to south Wednesday after 10am north and 4 pm south. Look for around ¼ of an inch for all by Wednesday evening.

Wednesday night through Friday rain, moderate to heavy at times. The timing is not clear at this point, because this is a cut off low sitting offshore and spinning with no movement.

https://zoom.earth/

Wednesday night the rain should pick up intensity and Thursday should be our wettest day.

Friday rain likely, time will really tell when this cut off low really moves through. Rain totals have been going back and forth, but 1 to 3 inches is still likely. Models today are trending on the lighter side of the 1 to 3 inches.

It still is not clear when the front or cut off low will move. As mentioned in the past, a cut off low is like a 2-year-old. Wondering when and where it wants.

Enjoy typical fall weather the next 2 days before the rain arrives sometime Wednesday. Starting out lighter than picking up overnight.

Flooding's really should not going be a problem, as the ground is quite dry. This will be a good storm for this time of year, but not a January or February storm.

This will mix with a weaker atmospheric river, but the heaviest moisture will remain to the south.

Enjoy the first rain of the year, we will be in storm mode for the first time this season.

Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

Where do we start? so much that will happen with out really knowing how much rain and exactly when it will rain. So let’s start with this weekend.

As the National weather service calls it “2 chamber of commerce days this weekend" This weekend will likely be the nicest weekend until 2024.

As it typically happens in November the overnight lows are quite chilly 36 in Santa Ynez, 44 in the foothills of SB, 52 along the coast and mark 38 at Regan's ranch.

After the sunrises the warmup will begin, and mercury will climb quickly. Highs today will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s as offshore flow is driving the heating and the cold nights.

Sunday, it only gets better. Temps will rise another 3 to 5 degrees. just another great day.

Next week, Monday starts out with a minimal change with onshore flow returning and cooler temps.

Tuesday the real changes begin to take effect, but the rain should hold off until Wednesday.

Wednesday through Friday rain chances increase. The only problem is we still do not have a good handle on how much or when it will rain.

It looks like the low will park offshore and spin moisture into us. As it moves closer to us the rain will develop. We are still tracking the amount of rain. Right now 1 to 3 inches.

The best way to describe this is as the national weather service did it with percentages:

"It will be dry through Tuesday. A significant weather pattern shift
will occur mid-to-late next week. Rain will develop at some point
between Tuesday night and Friday. Confidence is moderate in amounts
and low in timing. There is a 70 percent chance of a 1 to 3 inch
event, a 10 percent chance of a 3 to 6 inch event. Also, there is a
20 percent chance of a light event with 1 inch or less. Early
estimates show that the peak rainfall will occur sometime between
Thursday and early Friday (this too could change with time)."

Have a great weekend and we will figure it out next week, get ready for rain if you will be affected

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

A weak system is passing through which will give us cooler temps today and some high clouds. The day is starting out quite chilly with Santa Ynez at 36 degrees, Santa Barbara foothills 44 degrees and the beach areas 54 degrees.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=40.38,-129.13,5z/date=2023-11-10,00:20,-8

Todays highs are looking cooler at 71 degrees.

Saturday northeast winds a weaker Santa Ana wind event will warm up day time temps to upper 70s to mid 80s depending on your location. Great weather will be all weekend long.

Next week the first part of the week will be fair, but we start to transition to a wet pattern mid week. Right now it looks like dry Monday and most of Tuesday. The rain moves in north to south some time Tuesday afternoon to the north and late Tuesday for us in SB.

As mentioned yesterday, we will see rain Wednesday through Friday. However we still do not have a good handle on how much. The latest model runs have backed off on the amount of rain the last few forecast runs. What does this mean? As always predicting rain totals a week out is relied on computer models. These really can vary this far out. It will be Monday before we really have a good handle on this, when the short range models take over the predictions.
Bottom line, we will see rain and excess of monthly averages for November. Previous model runs were calling for 3 times total monthly averages for November. Now we might see less, but still significant for any November storm. My preference is alway to start the season with a moderate rain to bring down the cobwebs, instead of wash them away. Unfortunately, I can not control the weather only report it.

Anyway you look at it, we will see rain and we will have a great weekend.

Enjoy the weekend and we will know more by Monday

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Another week flying by. So will the winds in Santa Ana country.

Wednesday the winds came up and gusts were 50 miles an hour to the south of SB. Today the winds will calm some for a day, highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. A weak system will roll through Friday. This will do nothing more then cool us down a few degrees. Highs will drop into the low 70s on Friday.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=40.38,-129.13,5z/date=2023-11-09,02:30,-8

Saturday and Sunday we warm up again with another off shore wind event. Highs will be in the low 80s with chilly nights, especially in the valleys where upper 30s are likely.

Next week is where the change starts. Nothing too exciting to start the week. Monday and Tuesday we will see cooling, but that’s the only real change. Wednesday is the day that rain will arrive. Thursday is now slated to be the day of the greatest rainfall.

This next system is building to be a good one as models are in agreement that we will see wet weather Wednesday through Friday. This system looks to be a strong early season storm with a subtropical connection. As we have talked about many times in the past, when warm moist air interacts with cool air from the north it spells higher rain fall. This is not typical for November, but at this point we are trending toward very wet.

How wet? well 2 to 5 inches wet. The higher end numbers are more in the mountains but expect a good 2 day period of rain and heavy at times. The heaviest rain is more likely to be Thursday.

This system is still 7 days away, so we do not have rain totals nailed down.

Time will tell on exactly how much rain we will see, but it should be a significant storm for this early in our season.
Just so you understand, The rain year starts October 1 and goes to September 30th... Don’t ask me why, because I really don’t know. “Mike?”

My guess is typically our rainy season does not start until October.

Anyway enjoy the great weather for the weekend, then next week we will be thinking about the rain.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Last night it was all about the winds. They blew pretty hard all night at my house from the northwest. This was all from a storm system to the north that only brushed us with the winds.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=192&y=117&site=lox&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=192&map_y=117

Today it is all about the shift of the winds to the northeast as another Santa Ana event begins late this morning and runs though Thursday.

Expect high fire danger and wind of 50 miles an hour. Temps each day will be on the rise, but in wind sheltered areas like Santa Ynez expect freezing temps at night, the next 2.

Friday brief onshore flow then another off shore event for the weekend making Saturday and Sunday fantastic warm days with 80s for highs.

Next week, the great weather shifts to a rainy and wet week. Monday is transition day where onshore and cooling will begin.

Tuesday mid to high clouds will roll in, rain possible Tuesday evening on the central coast.

Wednesday though Friday, it is not about if it will rain, it is about how much and when.

All areas will see some rain likely starting Wednesday. How much is still in question, but models are beginning to agree that we will see the first significant rain of the season. Right now 2 to 4 inches is the bench mark. At this point it is still too far out to know if this will be the amount of rainfall, but it will rain.

The good news is we have a week to prepare, however you need to.

Enjoy the great weekend and weather the rest of this week, change is coming.

Jack Martin

Afternoon forecast today,

Nothing has really changed in our forecast since Sunday’s report. A low pressure system is passing through the central coast.

https://zoom.earth/

This will bring some light rain maybe to the central coast, and wind everywhere else. The next few days is really about northwest winds followed by northeast winds Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some really chilly nights those days also.

Nothing exciting all week long, just highs in the low 70s and chilly nights.

Looking into the 10-day forecast next Tuesday through Friday. It does appear we might see our first real rain for the season. (FYI the rain season started oct 1st to sept 30th)

It looks like the target day is going to be Wednesday, but lots can happen in the 7 to 9 days .

As always stay tuned. 😊

Jack Martin