Jack's Weather Report

Good Thursday morning,

High pressure and off shore winds, with warmer temps is the forecast through the weekend.

Take a look at zoom earth and you will see our next weather system that is being held off by high pressure over us. This is just staying well out in the pacific for now and even moving more westerly for now

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=37.4,-107.7,4z
High pressure and warmer weather is the story through the period through Sunday.

The next weather system should roll in sometime Monday into Tuesday. Timing is still not clear or where it will track. For now it looks like 1/2 to 1 inch of rain Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. This clears out Tuesday afternoon.

This is a quick report, because I got to get to Action.

Enjoy a few days of drying and warmth.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

And it is a good morning because the rain is over for a few days.

Last night shortly after midnight I was awakened by the heavy rain at my house for the most part we received around a half an inch of rain in Santa Barbara, and less everywhere else.

The low is now moving east and the rain is over until Sunday night when the next storm arrives.

We will see four days of drying and warmer temperatures as we get into Thursday, Friday and Saturday of this week. It looks like the next system will come in later in the afternoon Sunday into Monday. This does not look like a big system and we will receive anywhere for 1/4 inch to 1 inch of rain at this point, depending on which model you’re reading. Bottom line with all the rain we have seen, we are way ahead of schedule. Just look at some of these facts. It’s amazing. Santa Barbara has received 196% of normal rainfall for the year to date and we are at 133% above normal rainfall for the year.

The entire county has received more rainfall to date than we received typically in an entire year that goes through the end of September of 2024. Not including what’s coming next week or will receive last night, because this was through 8 AM yesterday.

I think everybody agrees we all need a break. Let the water run out of the dirt into the streams and begin a dry out process
enjoy a few days of nice weather I know I will.

Jack Martin

Wow, where do I start today with what has happened since Sunday afternoon and even the start of Saturday?

I can’t even remember back to Saturday when we saw that ¼ to ½ start to this storm. Remember when I called this storm an 8 out of 10 for February?

And a 10 out of 10 for another other storm, well I was wrong. This will be an 11 out of 10 when it is all said and done. Just look at these storm totals since Saturday

Montecito 7 inches, Santa Barbara 5 inches, San Marcas Pass 10.5 inches, KYTD tower 11.5 inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

And we are not done yet… The AR (atmospheric river) is just to the south of us, with still some light showers today. https://zoom.earth/

You can see the current radar showing most of the rain just south of us https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

Here are a few videos (attached San Ysidro creek ) on my YouTube channel toro creek 2/19/24 toro creek like rapidshttps://youtube.com/shorts/Kc7a7oJlRl4?si=6X_zxVQ26VL7gRSU

So what do we have to look forward to? Today will be relatively dry with some light showers, areas Santa Ynez north mostly dry today.

Tonight it starts back up again as the core of the low moves through. This will bring rain rates to 1 inch per hour and possibility of thunder and lighting and waterspouts.

Rain will be heavy at times, which with all the rain we have already had, everyone should stay away from creeks. There could be some flash flooding due to the down pours.

Rain will fall over night and into Wednesday morning. Rain should wrap up Wednesday around noon.

Thursday and Friday will be dry, also likely Saturday. Then the next system comes in Sunday into Monday night. This is not looking to be wild like this one, ½ to 1 inch of light to moderate rain, but it will keep us very wet into early next week. Then hopefully a break so we can all dry out.

Hang in there, one more round of heavy rain tonight. Then a break for a few days.

This will be a historical February rainfall; we will be talking about this year for many years to come.

That’s the fun for the day, now off to Action

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning and Presidents’ Day,

For some, you get to sleep in and celebrate another day off that is on the books for schools, government and banks. I am a president of Action Roofing, but no day off for me. It will be another busy day with around 3 inches of rain overnight and 5 inches on the pass. Rain in Ventura and LA is just starting up where LA has seen very little and Ventura 1/3 of what we have seen. The atmospheric river is shifting south over Ventura, Oxnard and LA this morning. Rain here will lighten up a bit late morning with only some showers the rest of the day and even Tuesday during the daytime.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.18,-136.78,5.13z

Rain total have been impressive with 3 plus inches over night, with more rain to follow earlier this morning. Heavy rains are shifting into LA this morning, but they will not see as much as we saw overnight. Showers will continue but on and off through Tuesday day. Tuesday night the low pressure system open up and drifts through our area. This will bring the heaviest rain of the storm with thunder, lighting and a few tornados possible.

Wednesday mid day we clear up through Friday, with another system slated for the weekend. This looks to be lighter with 1/2 to 1 inch of rain.

The way this month has gone 1/2 to an 1inch is like a drizzle or light rain.

In the meantime daylight is coming earlier now, starting in the first half of the 6am hour. We will be able to see what effect the rains have had on our properties and neighborhoods. Here are some rain totals for the storm https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Here is the radar currently, you can see the heavier rain shifting south and lightening up here https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

Stay tuned, it is not over yet. Tuesday night will get real interesting again.

Showers until then.

Jack Martin

Here I am watching the NBA All-Star game and waiting for the 7:30 update for the weather, but you can take a look at the Zoom Earth and see how active we are right now and will continue to be
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=37.4,-143.5,4.77z

But based on the last update, we’re looking at heavy rain overnight with a number of inches of rain, falling heavy at times.

The target area is Santa Barbara and Ventura. Los Angeles will stay relatively dry overnight until the early morning hours and then they will be the ones getting the atmospheric river on top of them.

Monday we will start to see a break or a pause because he got forever will be over Ventura and LA and they will see what we’re going to see overnight

Tomorrow for them will be quite crazy with heavy rain. Specially, during rush-hour traffic.

7:12 PM and I’m waiting for the update to come in in 20 minutes or so so I’ll finish this report at that point, but it does look like Santa Barbara will get the heaviest rain from 9 PM until tomorrow morning.

OK I give up I’ve been waiting for the 7:30 update is now 8 o’clock so I’m gonna give you the update. It’s gonna rain a lot.

Talk to you in the morning.

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Just take a look at this comma shaped system. This a a classic west coast low pressure system that is wound up spinning tropical moisture our way. This is California version of a hurricane. It is 300 mile away from the central coast right now. Getting ready to start the Action later this afternoon on the central coast, to around dawn in LA.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.8,-122.4,4z/date=2024-02-18,00:20,-8

Yesterday the rain started, but it gave everyone 1/4 to 1/3 on an inch, which was spot on the predictions.

Today we will see a pause into the rain until mid afternoon before the real Action starts. This will bring us heavy rain tonight into Monday and really through Monday. Expect wind of 20 to 30 miles an hour with mountains up to 50 miles an hour. Rain rates have been updated and up graded to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour at the peak of the storm, with the storm last from 12 to 24 hours with heavier rain.
Rain totals of 2 to 5 inches coastal 4 to 8 inches foothills and mountains with up to 10 inches on south facing mountains. Yes this is the real deal. Very similar to the last system that we saw, except the ground is even more saturated. All the normal problems with heavy rains will exist from down trees, mud and land slides, power outages to flooding of creek and streams. It will get interesting.

The low pressure system will move very slowly south and is expected to pause over Ventura and LA later Monday afternoon or night. This will just pump more rain over those location.

Flash flood warnings are in effect in the burn areas and along all the creeks and stream.

Evacuation warning have gone out to all the typical locations, basically the same as the last system. Creeks, streams and burn areas.

Tuesday a pause in the rain, before the low opens up and moves through with heavy rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday late morning, the rain should come to an end, with dry days Thursday and Friday. However Saturday into Sunday it looks like more rain with February going out with a bang. Let’s hope that March will be drier. We are tapped out with all the rain in the past month.

Ok you have a little more time to prepare for the strongest part of the system.

It will be a good one.

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

Are you ready? Here we go again, but not today or even Saturday daytime.

This is a very interesting article that was shared to me by Steven (Thanks Steven)

This is pretty interesting for two reasons

1. it’s been enough that we are in El Niño but a super El Niño !!!!

2. In the same paragraph, they talk about us getting into La Niña by the end of summer.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/super-el-nino-arrives-rapid-collapse-la-nina-watch

Rare ‘Super’ El Nino arrives but rapid collapse beginning as La Nina Watch issued

A strong El Niño winter season has become a rare "super" El Niño season. But it's quickly losing steam as the ocean undergoes a rapid reversal, likely heading to an opposite La Niña pattern by summer.

As far as our weather goes, we are just a little more than half way through a historical February for rainfall and more is on the way.

Today and Saturday we’re looking at dry weather with some clouds, highs in the 60s to 70° in warmest valleys

Saturday it looks like the next storm system approaches but will only clip SLO.

Saturday night into Sunday rain returns for all. This will start out minimal with 1/4 to 1/2 inch 1 inch on southwest faces.

Sunday some on and off rain, but not anything crazy.

Sunday night into Monday morning it is game on and really all the way though Monday.

Tuesday more rain into the evening.

Wednesday the encore performance like last week. The core of the low will pass and bring heavy rain at times, possible thunder and more. 1 inch per hour rains at times.

All in all, 2 to 4 inches coastal, and 4 to 6 in the foothills and up to 8 more in the mountains and south facing.

Yes it will be another soaker in February. 13 days left, I can’t wait for March….

Ok back to Action, 5 hours of sleep, here we go again

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning, 

Are you ready, here we go again, but not today or even on Saturday daytime.

This is a very interesting article that was shared with me by Steven (Thanks Steven )

This is pretty interesting for two reasons:

It’s been enough that we are in El Niño but a super El Niño!!!! 
In the same paragraph talk about us getting into La Niña by the end of summer

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/super-el-nino-arrives-rapid-collapse-la-nina-watch

Rare ‘Super’ El Nino arrives but rapid collapse beginning as La Nina Watch issued

A strong El Niño winter season has become a rare "super" El Niño season. But it's quickly losing steam as the ocean undergoes a rapid reversal, likely heading to an opposite La Niña pattern by summer.

www.foxweather.com

As far as our weather goes we are just a little more than halfway through a historical February for rainfall and more is on the way.

Today and Saturday we’re looking at dry weather with some clouds and highs in the 60s to 70° in the warmest valleys.

Saturday and looks like the next storm system approaches but that only clips SLO.

Saturday night into Sunday rain returns for all. This will start out minimal with 1/4 to 1/2 inch 1 inch on southwest faces.

Sunday some on-and-off rain, but not anything crazy.

Sunday night into Monday morning it is game on and really all the way through Monday.

Tuesday more rain into the evening.

Wednesday the encore performance like last week. The core of the low will pass and bring heavy rain at times, possible thunder and more. 1 inch per hour rains at times.

All in all 2 to 4 inches coastal and, 4 to 6 in the foothills, and up to 8 more in the mountains and south facing. 

Yes, there will be another soaker in February. 13 days left, and I can’t wait for March …. 

Ok back to Action 5 hours of sleep, here we go again.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning and happy Valentine’s Day.

A low pressure system is approaching and some are waking up to fog.

Today after the fog clears, an overall nice day, but tonight we will see a 30% chance of rain coming through.

Thursday we will likely see a marine layer, drizzle and some light rain possible, so prepare as needed.

Thursday night into Friday after the weak system rolls through, we have a great day with some highs close to 70 degrees.

Saturday will be transition day before rain starts Saturday night. Beyond Saturday night and Sunday morning, the models are not really clear on exactly when the real rain event will start, but will arrive Sunday night into Monday or later.

Monday is still in question. I’m sure that everything will come together as we get closer as far as Rain goes, we are still on track to see 2 to 5 inches coastal and 5 to 8 inches in foothills and mountains.

Like the last system it will be very windy with winds 40 to 50 miles an hour. Also this system will bring lower snow levels. They will be more like 4500 feet. Needless say we will get into another very wet and windy pattern likely through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday of next week.

Get prepared, this will cause flooding in areas due to the saturated soils and the heavier rains.

Here is a little geography lesson. I did not know the surrounding countries to costa Rica. Today is my last full day, before a travel day Thursday. See you back home late Thursday. Have a great Valentine’s Day, guys don’t forget or you will be in the dog house.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Dry weather will continue through the weekend with a few slight twists.

Today will be sunny for the most part, with some locations waking up to fog.

After the fog clears mostly sunny with a high of 60.

Tonight fog and some drizzle possible for all as a weak system passes to the north
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=38.82,-126.99,5z

The rest of the work week basically brings us dry conditions with some fog again Wednesday overnight into Thursday.

A weak ridge builds in Thursday and hangs in place through Friday.

Friday night into Saturday a low pressure system pushes into the area and will bring back rain and a wet few systems.

It appears Saturday will be mostly dry, then the first system comes in Saturday night into Sunday. The first system will not bring that much rain, but Sunday night into Monday is when the heavy rain returns into Tuesday.

It does look like the crazy rain total for February will keep adding up with total Sunday till Wednesday of 2 to 4 or more inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains.

February has really performed to El Niño 2024 with just crazy rain totals and we are not done yet. With the ground saturated from all the rains earlier in the month, it will not take much to get creeks and stream humming again, some flooding is likely.

Enjoy the rest of the work week which will be dry, with only some fog and drizzle possible over night Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

I return Thursday afternoon, just in time to get ready for the next round of rains. Oh Joy for me !!!

Have a good week, don’t forget Valentine day is Wednesday.

Jack Martin