Jack's Weather Report

8/17/23

By Jack Martin on Aug 17, 2023 at 04:58 PM

Good Thursday morning, I think !!!! 

I woke up very early this morning thinking about what is to come. 

Waiting for the normal 3:35 am forecast discussions update that did not arrive until almost 5am. 

I was not sleeping in, but there is so much to talk about what is coming. The top forecasters at the national weather service took longer to send their updates. 

The bottom line here is Zoom Earth shows you what’s happening or more so what is going to happen 
https://zoom.earth/storms/hilary-2023/

Short-term, who really cares? It is all about what’s coming starting Sunday.

Hilary is now a hurricane and looks to strengthen over the next 24 hours. 

This is well to the south, but moving north quickly. High surf, heavy rain, winds, thunderstorms, flash floods. All crazy stuff like that MIGHT affect us Sunday through Tuesday. 

The bottom line, all models are pointing towards a 100% rain chance starting Sunday.

Rain can be heavy if the track stays the same, we are looking at 1 to 2 inches between Sunday and Tuesday. 

Coastal flooding, and winds 20 to 35 miles an hour. 

This system is going to move north as we get into the weekend and looks to hug the coast. Where it turns in is still in question, but right now point conception looks like a bullseye Monday. We will be watching this through the rest of the week and weekend because we typically do not see systems like this affect us. The last one that really hit us like this was the 1970s. I will be watching this closely, but winds, heavy rain, and surf is going to make it very interesting. 

Lots more to come. You have been warned. 

Get ready for a system that comes every 50 years.

Enjoy the fog, it is 800 feet thick, nice, and cool to start at 59 degrees. Humidity arrives Saturday, and rain Sunday and Monday. 

Jack Martin

8/16/23

By jack martin on Aug 16, 2023 at 02:27 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

Another week flying by.

Today will be the last really hot day for the interior and valleys.

Highs in woodland hill and those valleys will be over 100 with 108 possible.

In contrast it is foggy along the coast with highs in the low 80s.
Starting out a nice 57 degrees, love that cold Pacific Ocean. Actually the sea temp was 68 degrees yesterday, which is extremely warm for our area.

Some subtropical moisture is drifting up from the south, this is affecting only LA and southern deserts. 20% chance for today
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.9,-116.9,5.94z

Thursday and Friday, the south flow is blocked and cooling in the interiors is expected.

Not much excitement through Saturday.

Then it becomes interesting 🤔, All eyes turn to Hilary which will become a tropical storm today. This is well south of the area near Acapulco now, but will move north into the Baja for the weekend. This will allow the monsoonal south flow to reestablish and bring rain threat to California Sunday into Tuesday. It is even possible we could see heavy rain with this.

Now as always tropical systems to the south are very hard to forecast, we really need to watch as we get closer to the weekend.

Sunday I think if there is any rain, it will be to the south of out forecast area.

Monday and Monday night will bring the best chance for us. Possible heavy. I will be watching this closely as we get towards the start of the work week.

In the mean time, stay tuned.

Enjoy the rest of the work week. More to follow!

Jack Martin

8/15/23

By jack martin on Aug 15, 2023 at 03:25 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

A warm up the rest of the work week is on tap. Expect warmer temps through Thursday, before high pressure moves east. Each day temps will climb a few degrees especially in the valleys and interior. Coastal we still have fog and this will keep the temps down into the low 80s.

Expect 90s to 100 in the valleys and hot 🥵 in the interior like Bakersfield.

For the weekend good news, as it cools off some
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite-hd/#view=25.5,-129.1,3.92z/date=2023-08-01,am

Next week, another tropical system Hilary might brush the coast of California. We will need to watch this, but early forecast shows 40% chance for rain Monday.

Way too early to call at this point, but be aware.

Jack Martin

8/14/23

By jack martin on Aug 14, 2023 at 04:10 PM

Good Monday morning,

It is straight up mid august, with typical hot monsoonal moisture out there.

If you look over the Bay Area you can see the monsoonal moisture moving east to west.

We don’t typically see this, but it looks like areas in Nor Cal will see some rain.

For us, nothing from this, only warmer weather this week through Wednesday
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=8,-115.7,4.21z/date=2023-08-13,23:30,-7

Look down into the Mexican waters. The tropical action is getting interesting, as a series of disturbances will be setting up for tropical storms over the next 10 day. Where these will drift is really not clear at this point, but if you are in the southwest monsoonal rains this time of year is reality.

It is interesting, because there has not been much Action on the East coast and Caribbean to date. I am sure this will happen in the next month or so.

Coming back west, this week will be non eventful for southern California coastal areas. Interiors will be hot, but coastal areas will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s. Valleys 90s and interior 100 +.

As we approach the weekend the models are not in agreement. They can not decide if some monsoonal moisture could affect LA or Ventura, but that to far out to care.

We will watch it for now, and have more to say the second half of the week.

In the mean time enjoy the mid summer weather. We are the lucky ones on the coast with the Pacific Ocean keeping temps manageable. A/C is not needed along the coast, nice lower 60s at night and 80 by day. A fan and an open door is your friend over night.

Have a great week and more to come,

Jack Martin

8/14/23

By jack martin on Aug 14, 2023 at 04:10 PM

Good Monday morning,

It is straight up mid august, with typical hot monsoonal moisture out there.

If you look over the Bay Area you can see the monsoonal moisture moving east to west.

We don’t typically see this, but it looks like areas in Nor Cal will see some rain.

For us, nothing from this, only warmer weather this week through Wednesday
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=8,-115.7,4.21z/date=2023-08-13,23:30,-7

Look down into the Mexican waters. The tropical action is getting interesting, as a series of disturbances will be setting up for tropical storms over the next 10 day. Where these will drift is really not clear at this point, but if you are in the southwest monsoonal rains this time of year is reality.

It is interesting, because there has not been much Action on the East coast and Caribbean to date. I am sure this will happen in the next month or so.

Coming back west, this week will be non eventful for southern California coastal areas. Interiors will be hot, but coastal areas will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s. Valleys 90s and interior 100 +.

As we approach the weekend the models are not in agreement. They can not decide if some monsoonal moisture could affect LA or Ventura, but that to far out to care.

We will watch it for now, and have more to say the second half of the week.

In the mean time enjoy the mid summer weather. We are the lucky ones on the coast with the Pacific Ocean keeping temps manageable. A/C is not needed along the coast, nice lower 60s at night and 80 by day. A fan and an open door is your friend over night.

Have a great week and more to come,

Jack Martin

8/14/23

By jack martin on Aug 14, 2023 at 04:10 PM

Good Monday morning,

It is straight up mid august, with typical hot monsoonal moisture out there.

If you look over the Bay Area you can see the monsoonal moisture moving east to west.

We don’t typically see this, but it looks like areas in Nor Cal will see some rain.

For us, nothing from this, only warmer weather this week through Wednesday
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=8,-115.7,4.21z/date=2023-08-13,23:30,-7

Look down into the Mexican waters. The tropical action is getting interesting, as a series of disturbances will be setting up for tropical storms over the next 10 day. Where these will drift is really not clear at this point, but if you are in the southwest monsoonal rains this time of year is reality.

It is interesting, because there has not been much Action on the East coast and Caribbean to date. I am sure this will happen in the next month or so.

Coming back west, this week will be non eventful for southern California coastal areas. Interiors will be hot, but coastal areas will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s. Valleys 90s and interior 100 +.

As we approach the weekend the models are not in agreement. They can not decide if some monsoonal moisture could affect LA or Ventura, but that to far out to care.

We will watch it for now, and have more to say the second half of the week.

In the mean time enjoy the mid summer weather. We are the lucky ones on the coast with the Pacific Ocean keeping temps manageable. A/C is not needed along the coast, nice lower 60s at night and 80 by day. A fan and an open door is your friend over night.

Have a great week and more to come,

Jack Martin

8/13/23

By jack martin on Aug 14, 2023 at 04:08 PM

Good Sunday morning,

I hope everyone is having a great weekend.

I thought I would start off the forecast with ocean temps. As typical as we get into the next few months ocean temps are on the rise in SB. It looks like we will see 67 degrees locally this week, with one stating 69 degrees.

To our south, lots of tropical action with plenty of disturbances moving to the west toward Hawaii. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/
These really are not affecting our weather.

This all segways into our upcoming El Niño season. As we get into fall the El Niño for this coming season strengthens and the odds of a very wet winter increases. With our lakes and reservoirs remaining almost full, it will not take much this year to put them over the top.
We still have 2 1/2 months before we typically see out first rain event, around Halloween. El Niño really starts to affect us in January and February, still 5 months away.

El Niño typically spells a very wet winter, so get prepared. Here is more casual reading for your Sunday
https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/climate/news/2023-07-13-el-nino-july-forecast-update-winter-noaa

For the upcoming week, not much excitement in the forecast. Cooler fog along the coast. Fog this morning is at 900 feet.

Temps will be mid 70s coastal to mid to upper 80s in the valleys.
As the work week arrives so does warmer temps especially in the valleys where the Mercury will climb into the upper 90s. Coastal a nice 80.
Lastly, since it is Sunday. Look to the skies tonight as meteor showers are most prevalent in the skies.

Have a great Sunday
Jack Martin

8/11/23

By jack martin on Aug 11, 2023 at 04:00 PM

Wow, that was crazy yesterday. Santa Barbara area was a bullseye for the rain and wet weather. The big winner was Carpentaria where they received 1/2 inch of rain, Santa Barbara was a close 2nd with .30 inches. All the other surrounding counties saw very little rain, except for us https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

Today we see and feel the change, it is foggy and cooler. Humidity is gone.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=36,-117.7,5.46z/date=2023-08-11,04:00,-7

Today still a very slight chance for showers, but this is LA and mountains. Here nothing to worry about.

The forecast for the weekend is looking non eventful with a slight warming trend.

Coastal fog and inland slightly warmer. A nice over all weekend which will range from 70s to 90.

Next week no excitement. Inland and valleys heat up again by mid week. Coastal we stay nice with some fog then upper 70s.

Now the excitement of the weekend will be the update on our upcoming wet El Niño year. Stay Tuned

Jack Martin

8/10/23

By jack martin on Aug 10, 2023 at 02:08 PM

Good Thursday morning,

Let the fun begin. If you’re still in bed sleeping in SB you might have been woken to the thunder and rain. At my house I heard the rain around 4:45 and then thunder. My weather station is telling me that lighting is 6 to 8 miles from my station here at home.

What’s in store for today? Well the tropical weather that we have been talking about all week is here.
The tropical clouds are now over point conception and moving right at us. It does look like we will see some rain this morning and more thunder showers into the afternoon.

Rain totals will be very spotty, if you are under a thunder storm it can be heavy. The official percentage for rain today is 40%, but at my house 100%. We will see what actually falls, but 1/10 to 1/4 is likely, with higher amounts in the mountains and below thunderstorms. Rain chances carry through today then we begin to dry up the atmosphere tonight. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=32,-134.2,4.66z

Friday looks to be dry, but still very slight possibility of rain.
Saturday into the week, we are looking for slightly warmer, but a dry non eventful period. No excitement beyond today.

Enjoy the show today, it looks like we are going to be damp to start your Thursday.

Have a great day,
Jack Martin

8/9/23

By jack martin on Aug 09, 2023 at 04:47 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

The burning question of the day, will we see any rain from the tropical system floating in the pacific? Let’s start by talking about this. You can see it spinning 350 miles southwest of LA. It is starting to pump moisture up from the south towards us.
(You can see it in the loop below)
https://zoom.earth/storms/eugene-2023/

Moisture in the clouds will increase through the day today and we can see some rain possibilities later this evening and best chance Thursday morning.

Now let’s not get to worked up over this, because the atmosphere is very dry at lower levels, rain that comes from the cloud base will evaporate before it hits the ground in many cases. So what does this all mean to us?
20% chance of rain later tonight, and best chance Thursday morning. How much?
Basically 1/4 of an inch or less. Now don't get me wrong, there is a chance for thunder showers, and where the rain could be much heavier, especially in some mountain areas, mainly to the south.

Rain chance drop way off the further north you go. Rain chances will likely stop at Santa Ynez.

Beyond the rain. Humidity will increase, but temps will drop. We will actually see cooler temps the next few days especially in the valleys and interiors.

For the weekend, Friday some left over moisture, but rain chances mostly go away.

The weekend will be in the 70s to 90s depending on where you live.

Overall a nice weekend, not as hot as it has been.

Next week a little warm up, nothing crazy adding 3 to 5 degrees to the air.

In the mean time, enjoy the tropical vacation coming to us. You don't need to go to Hawaii, or Mexico. Their weather is coming to us through our nice and cool Pacific Ocean, which is a nice 65 degrees today.

Have a great day,

Jack Martin