Jack's Weather Report

Good Thursday morning,

Today will be the warmest and driest day in the next 7, but not a chamber of commerce day. The only reason this will be the best day is that wet weather is returning through Tuesday of next week with 2 more storms affecting us.

This will top all lakes and reservoirs from all counties around us. Cachuma 84.2%, Nacimiento 73% with all climbing. https://nrwmac.org/lake-levels/  Just look at this graphic. Countywide we have received 102% of annual rainfall and it is just early January. and 270% of normal rainfall for the year to date, yes doing math that is almost 3 times normal rainfall. This does not even include the next 2 upcoming storms.

https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf      …… just crazy numbers………

So what’s happening today and the rest of the week?

Today we have a weak ridge that has pushed the storm track to the North, we will still see some high clouds and no rain. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Friday the storm track begins to shift towards us again. It looks like a dry Friday, but Friday night and Saturday the rain is back. We are looking at 1 to 1.5 inches coastal and 3 inches in the mountains. We will see heavy rain, but not as hard as Monday for 3 to 6 hours ½ inch per hour. This system even has a lot of lightning with it, so it needs to be watched.

Sunday, we get a short break between the 2 storms with only some very light showers. Sunday night the next system rolls towards us. This is a cold system and snow levels will be much lower. This will likely give the Santa Ynez mountains some white caps, it will be a pretty view.

Tuesday will be cold, but the rain should be gone. Wednesday they are talking about a ridge building ….. this means the tap will be turned off and we will get back to some dry weather for a change. It has been an amazing (no historical) 4 weeks of rain. We will remember this year for a long time.

Let’s get ready for more rain and all lakes to top…. enjoy the ride, you can't stop it…

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Wow, I had to stop and think what day it is because I have worked so many days in a row, I forgot the day.

It has been absolutely amazing with all the rain the past 3 weeks, and we have 1 more week of weather to battle.

Good news for southern California, we will see 2 dry days before the rain comes back. high pressure and offshore flow have been built-in for 2 days.

This is pushing the storm track to the north, but northern California and Oregon are still getting hammered https://zoom.earth/#view=37.2,-127.6,4z/map=live

The only rain that may fall will be on the central coast, where they may still see some rain today and tonight. For us dry conditions, but high clouds.

Thursday mid to high clouds will continue to stream over us as the ridge begins to break down, however, we will remain dry.

Friday the storm track will begin to drop towards us again, rain will start up Friday morning to the north, then afternoon for all.

This system again has subtropical flow with the atmospheric river connection. Nothing like Monday's rain, but 1 inch coastal to 3 more inches of rain in the hills.

If that’s not enough, there is another system from Sunday night through Tuesday. This one is not clear on timing or intensity but is wetter.

All of this wild weather has been fantastic for lake levels. It is absolutely amazing that lake Cachuma has gone from 30% at Christmas to over 80% today (and rising)

It is at 81% right now Dashboard (cosbpw.net)  It is also expected to spill before the end of the next 2 storms.

ENJOY A FEW DRY DAYS, I KNOW I WILL.

Jack Martin

OMG, what a day yesterday. Just increasable rain totals, but look at this result Lake Cachuma is at 66.7% and filling fast Dashboard (cosbpw.net) which is just amazing!

Look at these amazing rain totals for 24 hours, yes, a 1-day period. Montecito 7.5 inches, Santa Barbara 6 inches, San Marcos pass 14.60. just crazy …..

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA  SB crushed the totals in SLO but still amazing totals https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSLO

The rain stopped last night so we could all get a few hours of sleep. Today we will see round 2 starts up. round 2 is the core of the low.

This will bring heavy rain, wind, thunder, lightning, and waterspouts or small tornados. This does not have the subtropical atmospheric river, which has shifted to the south. There will still be plenty of Action today with a few more inches of rain to fall, and more on south-facing mountains. As I type the rain is starting again right now.

The rain will end by tonight. then we will have 3 dry days to attempt to recover. more rain Saturday, then another system on Monday of next week.

when will it stop, well at this point not until lake Cachuma is overflowing, yes overflowing !!!. how many years has it been since the lake was full?

Holy Moly this has been historical, even the 1998 El Nino year was not this crazy!

Hwy 154 will remain closed for some time. Be careful out there.

Action Trucks will be filling the streets soon, trying to stop leaky roofs, windows, walls, and decks.

It is dumping at my house again right now 5:10 am

Stay dry.

Jack Martin

Good, rainy Monday morning, 

It seems like the rain just will not stop. It was a wet Sunday with only a short break before the rain returned Sunday night.

The rain will continue to fall at a steady rate of 1/4 inch per hour until late afternoon when the skies really open up.

Most areas have already seen 2 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and there is a lot more to follow. 

The heaviest rain will show up in 2 waves, for us at 4 pm today and Tuesday morning when rates will be 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour.

yes, I said per hour ….. there will be a lull overnight then heavy rain returns Tuesday morning. Looking at the satellite you can see the atmospheric river stretched across the Pacific Ocean. This will be the supply and the low to the north will join then boom the heavy rain arrives later today,
https://zoom.earth/#view=33.8,-143.7,3.75z/map=live

Ironically today is the 5-year anniversary of the mud flow in Montecito.

This event will not reoccur today but flooding of areas is likely. The ground is saturated, and the only way out is our creeks and rivers.

It would be a great river rafting trip, but I don’t advise trying that. Creeks and rivers will likely have some flooding in the heaviest rain. 

All in all this storm is going to be the biggest storm of the season to date. Expect 3 to 5 inches in SB, 4 to 8 in the mountains, and up to 10 inches of favorable south slopes. 

The winds are from the south and will pick up as the day goes on. Expect 30 to 40-mile-an-hour winds in the coastal and foothills and 60 miles an hour in the mountains.

Rain will back off Tuesday night. With a ridge building in for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday should also be mostly dry, but another system rolls in for Saturday. This will not be as big, but a good 6 hours of heavy rain is looking likely. This on top of everything we have seen in the past 3 weeks is going to really affect the lake and reservoir levels for the right reasons. All lakes will be well about the 50% levels. It will be amazing to have this much water back.

As always enjoy the ride. It will be wet for at least the next week.

Stay dry

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Waking up this morning you will see the rain is back. Today we have a weaker system rolling through that will cause rain for the first half of the day.

Radar shows the rain falling currently  https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

We are expecting around ½ of an inch out of this system, with a few areas in northern SLO mountains seeing 1 to 2.5 inches at locations like rocky butte. This will fall apart as it reaches LA, meaning just some rain will occur there, ¼ inch or less.

A slight break this afternoon, then here we go again tonight. The opening act will begin to play into the weather. This will start out with lighter rain tonight and most of Monday . by the time Monday night comes the headline act starts, and it will blow us up. then the encore for Tuesday.

 “All in fun showing this as a concert “ Monday night and Tuesday is the heart of the storm.

This will be a great system with lots of heavy rain. Rain rates will be ½ inch to 1 inch PER HOUR. the heaviest rain comes in 2 punches Monday night and Tuesday.

Rain total will be 2 to 4 inches coastal, 3 to 5 inches south facing areas “like us in SB and Montecito”. 4 to 8 inches in the mountains, and up to 10 inches in some hills in SLO . “wow”

With the grounds being saturated with all the rains, this is going to make creeks and rivers flow fast. some flooding is likely in some areas.

Rain clears out on Tuesday night, then a ridge builds in for 2 days with dry weather Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday, yes, another system rolls in. If that’s not enough they are calling for another big system next weekend and are still on the storm track for another week after that.

We are in the middle of the wettest period in a long time. it is amazing to me, but I love it. let’s fill those lakes!

Amazing changes to the lake levels. Nacimiento is now 40% full https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=22189 Cachuma 36.5 and climbing Dashboard (cosbpw.net)

I was in the Santa Ynez valley yesterday and the hills are all green and so pretty, with water running into lake Cachuma. It is a beautiful site.

Ok, that's all for today, from weather😊

 Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

One more dry day, before we are back into the rainy pattern. It is just crazy to think about how long we have been in a wet pattern.

The first storm started after Christmas on Tuesday the 27th of December, and it is now the 7th of January, so we are going on for 2 weeks now.

The crazy part is we still have storm after storm on tap until at least the 15th of January. That is almost a 4-week period of rain with only short breaks. Don’t think that I am complaining, we need the water supply. however, I don’t remember the last time we had this much rain in a 4-week period. Maybe 2005 or 1998. All good let’s get this over with and fill the lakes and reservoirs

Today, we will see a nice dry day. A little cooler than Friday, but overall a nice day.

Tonight, the rain will start up overnight. This system will stay more to the North and will bring us a lighter rain at ½ to 1 inch.

(it is funny to talk about a lighter rain at ½ to 1 inch ) rain will fall off, as it gets towards LA with 1/3 of an inch at best.

Sunday some morning rain, then we will see some peaks of the sun in the afternoon.

Sunday night the big system starts to affect our weather. This will be bigger than Wednesday’s storm, but it will act the same way. Subtropical winds will bring light to moderate rain all day Monday.

Monday night and Tuesday are game on, this will bring us heavy rain and some flooding. The ground is saturated, and water is going to flow strongly in the creeks. They are even talking about flooding in the Ventura river that wipes out the campground and homeless camps. We will see good south flow and winds. Coastal winds are 30 miles an hour from the south and mountains are 60 miles an hour. Rainfall is 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains. Just crazy amounts of rain we have not seen in many years.

Wednesday a few showers, but the storm will pretty much be over. It looks like Thursday and part of Friday will be dry.

Saturday another storm might be strong again. As a matter of fact the national weather service is calling for rain to continue, on and off through the 15th of January. Lake Cachuma has now hit 36%, with 50% looking quite good by Thursday of next week if not more. Dashboard (cosbpw.net) . Check out the full moon that Adam sent photos of, they are great shots

enjoy the day then lots more rain to follow

Jack Martin

Wow, what an amazing result from all the rain. Take a look at the Pictures of the Santa Ynez river yesterday later in the afternoon.

That dry river is flowing strongly.

Today is all about the high surf, the weather will be nice as we should see 2 dry days, before more rain Saturday night.

Right now I am listening to the local news, they should get my weather report because they are reporting lake levels with little change.

Let me give you the real facts.

The storm Wednesday was less than thought because the system blew through faster than expected because of the winds, But the results for the rain were fantastic for lakes and reservoir levels.

Gibraltar reservoir is overflowing since 11 am yesterday, with all the rain in the hills flowing into lake Cachuma.

Lake Cachuma is now at 35.1 % up over 3% in one day. With Gibraltar full, the lake will rise much faster. Click here Dashboard (cosbpw.net)

With more rain this weekend and next week, I am betting we can get to at least 50% at Cachuma by Wednesday next week.

Disclosure!! this is just me thinking about what is coming “not scientific “😊

So what’s to come, is lots more rain. Starting Saturday night 1/2 to 1 inch overnight.

We will get a break Sunday, then more rain starting Monday ahead of the Main front Monday night.

Yes, another atmospheric river is to hit Monday night. This system will be stronger or equal to Wednesday’s system. Adding another 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains: ”wow”

Even more rain into late next week and hints of another system early the week following.

For a La Nina year, I think we are doing pretty well with rainfall 😊

I love the rain, even if it makes my world crazy at work!

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

The good news for flooding, the system moved through faster and has underperformed.

https://zoom.earth/#view=38.4,-108.5,4z/map=live

The heaviest rain is now in the LA area, with showers for us for the rest of the day. There should be another wave that will hit us late morning with heavier rain.

Rain totals have been less with around 2 inches in the past 24 hours coastal and around 4 inches in the mountains. still good rain in total, but filling the lakes is the goal.

Today showers all day, but this afternoon we should see some peaks of the sun. Everything clears out tonight, and Friday will be a dry day. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA current rain totals

Friday will be a dry day, and Saturday during the day, but more rain Saturday night. This is a weaker system with 1/2 inch coastal and 1 inch in the mountains.

The great news is we are on the storm track for the next 10 days through next weekend. More rain Monday night and this might be another strong system.

Looking deeper into the extended forecast there is another storm later in the week. Needless to say, all the rain of late is keeping the ground saturated and creeks flowing.

This is great news for the lake levels, it will just take a little longer to fill them, but with continued rain, it is good news.

On a side note, Northern California has been getting hammered. Snowpack is 171% of normal for this time of year.

This is great news for runoff later in the season and water supplies.

Enjoy the rain!

Jack Martin

I thought I would give a quick update. The rain has started delayed slightly but it will hang around longer.

The latest update now shows up to 10 inches falling in the mountains with rain rates at 1 ¼ inch per hour later tonight. Rain will really start to come down hard around 10 pm and last into the Thursday morning hours.

All systems go for our storm system, with minimal changes. Rain amounts and intensity forecast remain unchanged, with the caveat of mentioning isolated totals to 10 inches and rates to 1.25 inches per hour. The storm will peak in intensity tonight over SLO and Santa Barbara Counties and over Ventura and LA Counties Thursday morning. The storm looks to move very slowly over Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, which is why they will likely see the highest amounts.

This is a lot of water and the threat of flooding is a real concern. Expect a lot of roadway flooding, including a few freeway closures.

The Thursday morning commute will be bad. Several small streams will likely flood and spill over. Stay out of and away from any creeks and drainages as these could become dangerous quickly.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning, 

Before I get into the weather forecast, I want to let everyone know that my forecast is on my website daily. If you miss or want to read past forecasts for fun reading. just go to https://www.aroofing.com/  then on the top center there is a tab Jack’s weather report. Click on that and you will see the current and past reports.

Now for the report........

Today’s date is 1234 but not in that order. We are starting out quite warm out there at 57 degrees. Today is also the start of the next storm system and this will be one we will remember for some time. All the ingredients are in place. Strong pacific closed low, south winds, and subtropical moisture.

here is how it looks right now. https://zoom.earth/#view=37.4,-126.4,4.87z/map=live

All of these elements are present that spell a very strong system that will affect us for the next 26 to 30 hours. Light rain is starting up right now across the area, this is on the light side and will continue to be light to moderate though out the day. This will be a steady rain from the warm air across the area. This will last for a good 12 hours, and accumulations will be anywhere from 1/4 to 3/4 coastal, but because of the south winds in Santa Barbara and especially the southern mountains of SB. SLO and Ventura will see 1 to 2 inches of rain ahead of the real Action.

Tonight the strong low moves over us, this will bring 60 to 70-mile-an-hour south winds to the mountain ahead of the big rains. This evening the heavier rain will begin to ramp up, as the closed low gets closer. By 10 pm we should see this event really begin. Rain rates will get to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour coastal. On south-facing mountains, they could see 1 inch plus per hour at times. Rain will fall for a 30-hour period from now to noon Thursday. Rainfall will be 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains.

Thursday at noon the system leaves and we will have a dry Friday to recover from this system.

For the weekend, the wet pattern continues. A weaker low arrives Saturday and will affect SLO county and possibly Santa Barbara county.

Monday a stronger system affects us all with early rain totals of 1 to 3 inches. 

Later in the week, there is even one more system that will affect us.

Needless to say, we will be seeing a lot of rain over the next 10 days, with today’s system being the biggest. 

Enjoy the craziness, we really need the rain to capture in our dry lakes, all creeks will really be flowing by the end of the day. The good news is no creeks are predicted to overflow. We will be testing the new debris basins. 

Jack Martin