Jack's Weather Report

Good Saturday morning,

Welcome to a new month and hopefully plenty of rainfall.

NorCal is getting a lot of rain right now as the atmospheric river is pointed right at them. You can see this in SF and above, with some energy sagging south to the upper tip of SLO county Sunday into Monday
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KMUX/standard

For us, south of the AR we will see a nice weekend with warming trend into Monday.

Some north winds Sunday night will be felt due to the pressure gradience north to south. Monday another dry day for us, but the next system will start its way north to south.

Tuesday morning rain will begin in SLO county then work its way south towards us Tuesday afternoon. We will see rain Tuesday night and Wednesday on the south coast with moderate rain fall totals 1/2 to 1.5 inches. The system will move slowly so showers could last into Thursday. Another weaker system is possible for Friday into the weekend. On Sunday we will get a better handle on the rainfall amounts as we go from long range models to short range models that are more accurate with the forecast and rain totals.

Enjoy the nice weekend with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s in the valleys and cool winter night as usual.

The new month has arrived and the rain is coming Tuesday evening.

Have a great weekend with more to come.

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

Today is the last day of one of the driest months on record for our area. A matter of fact one of the driest 9 months in history. We are happy to say goodbye to January 2025.

Saturday ushers in a new month and lots of rainfall for NorCal, as an atmospheric river will bring rain to SLO and lots in the SF area.
https://zoom.earth/

For us no rain until Tuesday night into late Wednesday. It does look like we will see 1 inch coastal and 2 to 3 inches in the mountains. This will be a welcome relief, as it has been way too long of a dry period.

For the weekend to will be a little warmer, but still chilly. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will be warmer where fog exists, but still quite chilly in the valleys.

Dry Monday then rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. This is a warmer system with snow levels at 8000 feet.

Have a great weekend, more to come.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

As we wake up out there you can see stars in the skies in many locations. That’s not a good sign for more rain.

The low pressure is still spinning out over point conception but there is not a lot of moisture to work with so any rain will be minimal and showery in nature.

Today is Santa Barbara it will be Chilly, breezy and for the most part dry. There is still a chance of rain, but mainly to the south of us.

How much rain did we get, the best answer is “not enough”. The rain totals were really all over the board, with some areas getting decent rainfall but others getting almost none.

Santa Barbara saw ½ inch, with Goleta FS #14 seeing 1.76 inches, then Montecito .09 inches and the san Marcas pass 1.16 inches. as you can see the totals were really about where the showers were heaviest.

https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA Ventura and LA really saw the bulk of the rain.

Here is what it looks like from the sky, you can see the spinning low, with very little moisture imbedded. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.38,-113.15,5z/date=2025-01-27,03:40,-8

Highs today will be in the upper 50s, with most areas not making it to 60. Right now, it is 45 degrees in Santa Barbara and 32 in Santa Ynez.

It will be dry and cool the rest of this week with the next system coming in Friday night into Saturday. This will affect mainly SLO and Santa Barbara county and it will likely be on the weaker side.

Looking into the future all we can do is hope for a wet February which ushers in on Saturday. February is the shortest month of the year, but typically the wettest month also.

We will hope for lots of wet weather during the month of February, and a March miracle. until then, it looks to be dry the rest of January.

Hope everyone enjoyed the rain, and Ventura loved the hailstorm for excitement yesterday

Have a great week as always!

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,
What a great day with rain for the first time in to long.

The rain started up around 6pm last night and has been on and off over night .
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

Not a lot of rain at this point with most areas around 1/4 of an inch so far.

It does look like later today and overnight we will get the most of our rain. With this system the rain totals will be greatest to the south, with the central coast seeing the least amount of the rain. South facing mountains of Santa’s Barbara’s will see good totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches . SB around 1 inch in total, and LA getting a good 1 to 1.5 inches.

From 4 pm today to 4 on Monday there is a flood watch in affect for the burn areas. It does look like we will see rain into our Monday then Tuesday though Friday we will clear up and see dry weather.

It will be quite cold, with highs not even making it to 60 and lows in the 20s and 30s. Snow lever will be at 3500 feet so some snow in the santa Ynez mountains will make for a pretty view today and Monday.

It does look like another spot at some rain next weekend, but if it does it will be on the lighter side.

In the mean time enjoy the rain, and turn off those sprinklers

Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

Wow, I get to say it is going to rain.

The back and forth forecast this week with the cut off low pressure system is now understood. Current a closed low is in the Bay Area and it will work it’s way sound today and bring everyone rain.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.2,-128.7,4.73z

This morning clouds but no rain , the rain will work it’s way sound way from the north and arrive on the central coast this afternoon and in Santa Barbara later in the day.

Rain rates will be on the lighter side tonight and into Sunday.
Sunday night into Monday will bring us the heavier rain, with south facing mountains receiving 1.5 inches to 2.5 inches of rain. Santa Barbara in total should see about 1 inch of rain. The rain will be heaviest over night Sunday and burn areas could see some minimal debris flow.

It will be windy today ahead of the front, and temps will drop 15 degrees making it a cool windy day.

Snow levels will drop below 4000 feet on Sunday .
Monday still a chance of showers, but Tuesday through Thursday should be dry.

I am in Bellevue Wa right now and it is beautiful but quite cold especially in. We went for a walk yesterday in the late afternoon and it was so pretty on lake Washington.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

It is going to be a very interesting next 4 days. You will want to watch the weather for the next 4 days.

Today, will be the warmest day of the year to date. There will be some record highs set due to offshore winds.

Going outside you will feel it first thing and it is 51 degrees in Santa Barbara at 6am. Highs today will be in the upper 70s and some locations hitting the 80 degrees mark.

Just to our south another Santa Ana wind even fueling another fire. this is the 3rd fire this month in LA that has burned more then 10,000 acres. Having another fire with extremely dry air and another moderate Santa Ana is not a good thing. The offshore winds will also cause the air to heat up, and some record highs will be broken today. Winds will back off on Friday and start to cool us down, but it will still be well above normal temps for this time of year. https://zoom.earth/

Saturday, we do a 180 with a cutoff low dropping south. As I always say a cut off low is very difficult to predict its movement, a lot like a 2-year-old on the beach, you always must keep your eye on them.

Should this move closer to the water or coast we will see more rain, further east less rain, but colder temps and possible thundershowers. It does look like we will see the first rain for January of 2025 late Saturday night, through Sunday. How much? looks like ¼ to ½ inch on the central coast. ¼ to ¾ on the south coast and ½ to 1 inch in the mountains. With 2 inches possible if thunderstorms occur.

It will also be quite cold, Saturday through Monday the highs will be in the 60s and by Monday temps will drop 20 to 25 degrees. Snow levels might get as low as 2500 feet.

It will be very cold at night, freezing temps in all valleys and mountains are likely. highs will not make it to 60 degrees in many areas

Tuesday it looks like the system clears out, and we are just left with cold weather.

Bottom line, we will see very interesting weather over the next 4 days. you will see heat turning to extremely cold weather.

Regarding the cut off low, as mentioned slight movement of this low can be the difference between more rain. if it moves close to the coast, it will produce more rain. More to the east, increase the possibility of thunderstorms. At this point we would want closer to the coast, as thunderstorms in the burn areas is not a good thing. let’s hope for no more fires in LA who has been hammered this month.

Enjoy the summer weather today, and Stay tuned, for updates.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

No real changes in the forecast. Today extremely winds in the Santa Ana part of the area. 60 to 70 miles an hour is likely today.
https://zoom.earth/

Winds will die down Wednesday then return again Thursday as another milder Santa Ana event will be over us.

Temps will be mild to quite warm during the day, with highs in the 70s and Thursday some 80s in valleys especially. Nights will be quite cold especially in the valleys where freezing temps are likely.

Friday we switch it up as a cut off low works its way south. It looks like a chance of rain Saturday, but more likely Saturday night. This will not be a big event with 1/4 to 1/2 possible. This is welcome as it has been way too long since we have seen rain.

More to come stay tuned
Jack Martin

Good Monday,

A later morning forecast, because of a busy morning for me. However I wanted to get the forecast out to all because it is going too crazy from Ventura south today.

The forecast for the next 24 hours is all about the Santa ana winds starting shortly and lasting into midday Tuesday. We are expecting one more extreme Santa ana event starting at noon today 50 to 70 miles an hour coastal and valleys and 60 to 100 miles an hour in the mountains. Yes, this is another extreme event for those locations https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Temps will also warm up as the week goes on, but nights will be very cold. SB 38 tonight, the valleys 25 degrees. Highs however are going to climb into the 70s during the day, and into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday for the valleys.

Moving into the weekend the weather is still not clear. We will have a cut off low approaching for the weekend. Cut off lows are extremely difficult to predict, along with the dry air. It will take a lot to moisten the air to create rain, but the chances are there for the weekend. We will need to watch this as we get closer, at this point we just need to worry about the winds to the south, and the extreme fire danger that goes with it.

Enjoy the warmer days, lets hope we get into a wet pattern soon

No action in Santa Barbara, just great weather.

The winds will not affect us, it is crazy to think we are talking about low 80s in January.

What a crazy year it has been with no rain, the fires and dry warm weather.

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

Quite a chilly start to the day. 42 in SB 24 in SY, but the return to the marine layer is mildly out there. I guess anything with dampness helps at this point.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.77,-117.294,6.18z

Regarding the forecast it is all about very cold nights in the valleys, and highs in the low 60s. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.0352478027344&lat=34.612866252964096

No rain in our forecast again for another week. The next chance according to long range models will not be until the 29th of January. This means almost the entire month of January will be bone dry https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.0352478027344&lat=34.612866252964096

Next week, looks like another moderate Santa Ana event for Ventura -south, Monday night into Wednesday morning. Then even another possible on Friday.

It has been clear, dry and cold too long …. With no relief in site. This is sad but true. Enjoy the chilly overnight lows, then the sun warms us up until it sets and we cool quite fast.

Have a nice weekend,

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Just crazy weather in Southern California for January. The last 2 years we were floating with life rafts because of the amount of rain we had. This year it is a 100% turn around.

We have had 0.00 rain in 2025 and less than 1 inch of rain in the last 9months. It does not take a rocket scientist to tell us this is not good. We need rain… or all the wonderful things the last 2 years has brought us will evaporate, “literally”

Well I have worse news, the latest models show no rain for the next 10 days, putting us into the end of January.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.68986511230467&lat=34.43183254485123

The only good news is the off shore winds will be gone this afternoon and we will turn to onshore winds. This will bring back some marine layer along the coast Friday and especially Saturday. Hopefully we can start to get the humidity back up and the fire is under control down in the Los Angeles area.

Next week, the continued weather story will be dry, no rain, and cold nights but 60s during the day.

Next week we will need to see what happens with another potential Santa Ana event arising possibly.

Bottom line the East coast is likely reading about our complaints of no rain and 60s in January, because they are experiencing a massive freeze for the next 10 days also.

Bottom line "can you say La Niña" because this is a typical La Niña pattern that we are in. Dry west coast and extreme cold on the east coast.

We need something or someone to break us out of this pattern and bring back normalcy. Hang in there it has to get better soon, but Jacks team is running low on work. The only calls we seem to be getting is how do we fireproof our houses and roofs, Or we are being canceled from our insurance and we need help . ☹️

Have a great-day and let’s do a rain prayer and dance 🕺

We might have to open a car wash, because they are the only ones that seem to be busy 😂

Jack Martin