Jack's Weather Report

12/26/23

By jack martin on Dec 26, 2023 at 10:22 PM

Good day after Christmas morning,

For some of you it is back to the jobs, otherwise you get to enjoy another day of celebrating the holidays. For me 4 AM wake up and get ready for work.

As far as the weather goes, looks like we’re gonna have mixed bag, the rest of the week with high-pressure today, starting to turn on shore later in the day, with a very slight chance of some rain tonight and Wednesday morning. Mainly to the north in Slo, and northern Santa Barbara County. With Less than a quarter of an inch.

Looks like Santa Barbara should remain dry with the first system.
Wednesday, Thursday and half of Friday also looks to be dry, but Friday night is when the next system arrives. This one looks to create some rain for everyone most likely 1/2 inch to 1 inch starting Friday night and most of Saturday.

Sunday, New Year’s Eve day, rain chances start all over again on Monday and Tuesday. We Have to watch and see how that all plays out.

We don’t expect any huge storms at this point but some rain is likely at times the rest of this week and mainly Friday night and Saturday.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas as always seems to go by so quickly five more days of 2023 then we bring in the new year.

Enjoy the rest of your week

Best,
Jack Martin

12/22/23

By jack martin on Dec 22, 2023 at 05:48 PM

Wow, we made it through the storm, but not without a lot of excitement. All the hype came to be 100% accurate Rain intensity and totals broke numerous records, with Oxnard receiving all most 3 inches in 1 hour yesterday. Rain totals ranged from 4 to 16 inches, with rocky Butte the winner with over 16 inches in the 5 day total. The 154 got 10 inches, SB 7 inches and everyone else hovering right around the same on south faces.

It was so crazy that Santa Barbara made the national news last night with quite a long segment. Here are some numbers to view https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today the 22nd of December, the rain is coming to an end as the system is south and East of us. SB today will see 1/10th to no rain today. LA still with a chance of showers.

I do have good news in the forecast with no more rain through the 26th at least. There is a chance for rain the 27th, but models are backing off that for our area and it looks to be more of a north storm.

I think we all need a break, anyway. I know that this week has been intense for me.

We felt trapped yesterday as the waters filled the streets at my office. The only way out was to take the high roads. Everything was flooded to the south. It is amazing to me that people that see an area is flooded and they still drive through it and get trapped.

Here are some photos that I took from my travels and right out side my office door

Enjoy your holiday, merry Christmas and Box day to all.

Also the last bit of good news is every day forward the days get 1 to 2 minutes longer as we have passed winter solstice.

Have a great holiday with Family and friends!

There are some great football and basketball games on this weekend and Christmas Day.

Best,
Jack Martin

12/21/23

By jack martin on Dec 21, 2023 at 06:27 PM

Good Thursday morning,

Wow, with all the rain this week I really had to think about what day it was... I started to type Wednesday then I had to check.

The heaviest rain is now over Ventura and moving into LA. Early this morning Oxnard area and Silver Strand Beach got 3 inches of rain in 3 hours.

Looking at the zoom earth you can see the center of the low is just offshore of point conception https://zoom.earth/ ...just west of us.

This is going to bring us numerous showers and rain through out today. Expect rain heavy at times amounting to another 1 to 3 inches through Friday.

Wrap around moisture will occur late today into Friday with showers throughout the day, but Friday will be drier.

By Saturday, the low-pressure system will move East, and the rain will be over, here with only some stray showers in LA.

I would hate to be traveling by air or even car in LA today. There is going to be tons of delays and many accidents on the road.

Stay away from there if you can.

Sunday, Christmas Eve day, the rain will be all but a memory. We will have 3 days of great weather with high pressure building in through Tuesday the 26th.

Wednesday and Thursday of next week, long range models are hinting another storm. However that is a Christmas away.

Here are the numbers so far rainfall has been 3 to 8 inches for most this week so far https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Just look at rocky Butte in SLO with over 15 inches of rain so far this week https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSLO

Enjoy the rain, it will be showery more than steady rain the next two days.
4 days till Christmas

Jack Martin

12/20/23

By jack martin on Dec 20, 2023 at 05:55 PM

Good morning,

The rain was very affective the past 2 days with good accumulation. Santa Barbara 1.75, Montecito 2.6 and KTYD tower over 5.58 inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

I would say that is a pretty good storm, but the real rain has not started yet. Here it is spinning tightly off the San Francisco coast https://zoom.earth/

This is moving into position to bring us heavy rain starting early this afternoon through most of Thursday. Winds will pick up from the south and blow in the mountains at 45 mile an hour. Here we will feel winds but nothing like the mountains. For today light to moderate rain this morning, then the tap opens up this afternoon and rain will be come heavy at times, for the next 24 to 36 hours. rain rates at .30 to .60 per hour. Rain totals will be 4 to 8 inches and 5 to 10 inches on south facing mountains of Santa Barbara and Santa Ynez

If and where thunderstorms occur rain rates may go more than 1 inch per hour. It is going to be a very wet period with some flooding likely. I will be watching the rain and radar as we get into the afternoon. Rain will continue through Thursday, then Friday we will see some showers, but the rain will begin to end. Still a chance for very light rain Saturday, but the system will likely be over until Wednesday of next week. We will be dry through the 26th of December (amen for Jack to visit with family)

Wednesday next week the forecast gets questionable with another system. Looking at the long-term models they are calling for more rain before the 2nd of January.

Enjoy the wild weather, and by the way 5 days till Christmas and Thursday is winter solstice with the shortest day of the year. With all the rain that might be a good thing

Just so you know Cachuma is at 88.9% and will likely fill the earliest we have seen in many years https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Jack Martin

12/19/23

By jack martin on Dec 19, 2023 at 04:26 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

We are looking at steady light rain this morning https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

As you can see on zoom earth satellite, storm #2 is in the picture now https://zoom.earth/

Don’t be confused with yesterday’s storm that went to the north and east, this one slide into place and is now rolling down the coast.

Today we should see light rain and accumulations of ½ to 1 inch of rain. Rain rates will be light at 1/10 to ¼ per hour.

There will be some breaks, but more steady light rain is likely today.

Tonight and through Thursday the second storm stalls over point conception and pumps in sub-tropical moisture

Yes, as advertised this one will be a doozie. 2 to 4 inches for all, but south facing Santa Barbara mountain 4 to 7 inches.

Rain will be heavy for 24 to 36 hours Wednesday into mid Thursday. South flow and subtropical moisture make a classic winter storm in California

Expect some flooding in areas especially as the rains ramp up Wednesday

Friday it looks like it will move east with a few showers possible and by Saturday it all clears out.

It does look like we have high pressure building in through Tuesday and dry weather for Christmas.

Enjoy the rain, it will get wild within the next 24 hours.

12/18/23

By jack martin on Dec 18, 2023 at 05:25 PM

Good Monday morning,

Not much Action out there at this point, but there are a few interesting things going on.

It is quite warm this morning, crazy warm, 59 in Santa Ynez and 66 along the coast in Santa Barbara.
The rain really has been light to non-existent at this point.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=39.49,-130.75,5z

The upper low is too far offshore and rising to the Northeast, keeping the rain to the north.

Don’t fear it will still arrive, just giving us a little more time to get ready for it. Rain will arrive later this morning or afternoon, but this first storm will be much lighter.

Rain today and Tuesday will be around ½ an inch to 1.5 inch in higher elevations. Rain will start out light then pick up tonight and most of Tuesday.

The second storm is what it will be all about. This system promises to be a strong storm. This starts up Tuesday night into Thursday, but rain will occur into Friday.

This system will wobble down the coast, and park, pumping in moisture from the subtropical jet. Yes, we are still on track for a lot of rain.

How much? Well models are still saying 2 to 5 inches, with 4 to 7 inches possible on south facing mountains.

Saturday it looks like we clear up for Christmas.

Enjoy the fun, it will get much more interesting!

Jack Martin

12/17/23 - evening update

By jack martin on Dec 18, 2023 at 05:19 PM

Good Sunday evening almost 7 PM and look at me doing the weather report. What the heck! It was a fantastic weekend and ending Sunday night with great sunsets, but changes are happening fast.

I think I have said this a couple times but as the models get closer to the event, it looks like it is going to be a bigger event. I’m gonna have to monitor it as we get closer but rain will start up tonight. Won’t be super heavy Rain both on Monday and Tuesday with the first system accumulation 1 inch with the first.

The next system will arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday. We’re gonna see first wave of the system bring us another inch and a half.

Thursday and Friday is the wildcard but the wildcard is probably worth playing because it is looking like it’s gonna produce a bunch more rain. Computer models tonight are talking about 4 1/2 inches of rain and that may be pushing it a little bit but it’s gonna be a wet week. The good news and the silver lining looks like the rain will go away on Saturday and we should have decent weather for Christmas.

Of course, more to come, enjoy your evening bring an umbrella.

Stay tuned, rates go up this time of year 😂

Jack Martin

12/17/23

By jack martin on Dec 18, 2023 at 05:16 PM

Happy Sunday. Changes are in the air. As you look out side you see some mid level clouds starting to cover the skies. This will really do nothing other then give us a cloudy day.

Offshore winds will still keep us warm today with above normal temps with highs in the 70s. This afternoon winds shift onshore and rain on the central coast will start up. Don’t expect any rain for us until tonight. Rain totals will be light through the first system with approximately 1/3 of an inch or less through Monday.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=38,-131,4.84z

Tuesday still looks to be wet and the next system starts to move in, but rain will not be to intense.

The Wednesday through Friday period is when the real action arrives. We are expecting a weak atmospheric river with the cut-off low pumping subtropical moisture over us. Exact time is still not clear, but it will be a wet period at times 1.5 to 4 inches is likely out of the second system. It looks like we should be on the backside of the rain by Saturday. Bottom line it is going to be a wet week, enjoy the last dry warm day. After today highs will be in the 60s at best.

Jack Martin

12/16/23

By jack martin on Dec 17, 2023 at 04:55 PM

Well there it is the little bugger that is going to make next week wet and unpredictable.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Today off shore winds and high pressure will keep us quite warm, upper 70s to some low 80s. Tonight extra cold for most.

Now a slight change in the forecast.
Sunday looks to be dry most of the day. Then rain chances start up north to south late in the day.

Monday looks to be wet on and off with around 1/2 inch of rain in SB, more to the north and less to the south.

Tuesday is a change again. Yesterday it looked to be transition day, Now it looks to be wet and rain. Subtropical moisture will pump in from the south and give us rain.

Wednesday through Friday. The cut off low just spins off the coast and pumps moisture our way. How much and when is really open, since this is a cut off low.

We are expecting 1 to 3 inches through the period, but cut off lows can change things both ways. I do expect wet and especially south facing mountains of SB and Montecito.

Enjoy the nice weekend, because it looks wet most of next week.

Jack Martin

12/15/23

By Jack Martin on Dec 15, 2023 at 06:01 PM

Good Friday morning,

If you take a look at the satellite, you’re gonna see that offshore flow, and the ridge is keeping all the clouds away and pushing them to the north. This condition will persist through Saturday and matter of fact, Saturday will be the warmest day of the next seven with the upper 70s and some low 80s But quite chilly at night.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.9,-129.3,4z/date=2023-12-15,03:00,-8

Sunday picture begins to change high pressure starts to go away and the first system starts to move in. It does look like this will be pushed more to the north and rain will be minimal and not starting until later Sunday afternoon. With this being said we should see anywhere from 1/4 to a half an inch in Santa Barbara. Add a bit more on the Central Coast.

Monday Looks to be showering with possibly a quarter of an inch of rain.

Transition day Tuesday before a cut-off low arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. This is the system to watch. At this point, it appears the low is just going to spin around off the coast and pull up moisture from the subtropical and will just pump the rain into the area affecting the south-facing mountains of Montecito and Santa Barbara with the heaviest rainfall. It does appear 1 to 3 inches of rain is likely, but the exact timing is still not clear.

Looks like the period Wednesday through Friday are the most likely days for the heavier rain. The cut-off low makes it difficult to predict the exact timing and the amount of rain so stay tuned.

More fun to come 

Jack Martin