Jack's Weather Report

Good Saturday wet morning,

The rains arrived overnight and the good news it is almost over.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

It was a quick hitter with around 8 hours of rain, and all while we were sleeping.

Good rain totals with 1/2 to an inch of rain locally and around 2 inches at some locations. Refugio had around 2 inches.

Today will be dry and cool the rest of today and most of Sunday, before another system Sunday night into Monday.
This will be very similar to last nights rain, but much less in total. No more the 20/100, Or less then 1/4 of an inch. Rain in LA area will likely roll into new years morning, but clear out for the game in Pasadena.

Next week we are now beginning to get a feel for the weather, which is looking to keep the storm door open all week. These do not look like big systems, but it looks like rain Tuesday night into Wednesday then another storm for the weekend. We will feel it out as we get closer to the 3rd storm.

Bottom line we will start off the new years with dampness, but not crazy wet.

After next week it looks like we are in for a great the week following if the long range models hold together.

Have a great weekend and New Year’s Eve, I am sure we will be typing away before the new year.

Jack Martin

It was a wild day if you were sightseeing at the beach yesterday with high tide and high surf at 10:30 in the morning and got quite exciting. I was reading that nine people went to the hospital in Ventura from that rogue wave that flooded everything out.

Today, high tide is at 12:30 and the wave heights will not be quite as high. Still, it will result in the same issues where parking lots will get flooded

Weatherwise, we have rain coming in this evening lasting overnight into Saturday morning. Looks like anywhere from half an inch to 2 inches is likely. Overnight tonight into Saturday morning you can take a look at Zoom Earth you’ll see high clouds over us now and the front will move in later in the afternoon, creating light to moderate rain. Rain rates will not exceed 1/2 inch per hour.

This will not be anything like the last storm, but the accumulations will be decent. Some southeast winds will enhance the rainfall on south-facing mountains to 2 inches. Winds can blow in the hills to 45 miles an hour from the southeast.
https://zoom.earth/

Looks like Saturday afternoon it will clear out. We’ll have a dry Saturday night and Sunday morning at least. Consensus on the next system is still not clear and may completely miss us and stay west and go south.

We have to see how that all plays out. Next week it looks like we’ll have two dry days, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then another system coming in Wednesday night and Thursday. This does not appear to be a strong system only light rain. 

Have a great day, if you're going to the beach watch the waves at all times and get ready to run 🤔🤣

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

With theses holidays, I have to pause for a moment and trying to think about what day it is.

Today, Wednesday, zoom earth shows us that all the storms and energy is north of our forecast area. Northern California and the Pacific Northwest is seeing all the action.
https://zoom.earth/

The system to the north will sag south later today, but it looks like any rain that squeezes out will remain over SLO and maybe western Santa Barbara county. Where rain occurs it will likely be 1/10 of an inch.
Here is SB it looks to remain dry.

Thursday a weak ridge builds in through mid day Friday. Then another stronger system arrives Friday night and Saturday morning. This one does appear to bring everyone some rain. Expect 1/2 to 1 inch of rain for most out of the system. SLO could see a little more and south facing mountains of SB up to 2 inches. Ventura and LA will get wet, but more of 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch.

Sunday looks to be dry, but beyond that the models are not in agreement. There is some chatter about rain New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day, but all models differ at this point. It does look like a ridge will build in next Tuesday bringing dry weather for the start of 2024. Looking into the extended forecast there does not appear to be any big systems on the forecast for the first full week of January 2024.

Enjoy your week

Good day after Christmas morning,

For some of you it is back to the jobs, otherwise you get to enjoy another day of celebrating the holidays. For me 4 AM wake up and get ready for work.

As far as the weather goes, looks like we’re gonna have mixed bag, the rest of the week with high-pressure today, starting to turn on shore later in the day, with a very slight chance of some rain tonight and Wednesday morning. Mainly to the north in Slo, and northern Santa Barbara County. With Less than a quarter of an inch.

Looks like Santa Barbara should remain dry with the first system.
Wednesday, Thursday and half of Friday also looks to be dry, but Friday night is when the next system arrives. This one looks to create some rain for everyone most likely 1/2 inch to 1 inch starting Friday night and most of Saturday.

Sunday, New Year’s Eve day, rain chances start all over again on Monday and Tuesday. We Have to watch and see how that all plays out.

We don’t expect any huge storms at this point but some rain is likely at times the rest of this week and mainly Friday night and Saturday.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas as always seems to go by so quickly five more days of 2023 then we bring in the new year.

Enjoy the rest of your week

Best,
Jack Martin

Wow, we made it through the storm, but not without a lot of excitement. All the hype came to be 100% accurate Rain intensity and totals broke numerous records, with Oxnard receiving all most 3 inches in 1 hour yesterday. Rain totals ranged from 4 to 16 inches, with rocky Butte the winner with over 16 inches in the 5 day total. The 154 got 10 inches, SB 7 inches and everyone else hovering right around the same on south faces.

It was so crazy that Santa Barbara made the national news last night with quite a long segment. Here are some numbers to view https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today the 22nd of December, the rain is coming to an end as the system is south and East of us. SB today will see 1/10th to no rain today. LA still with a chance of showers.

I do have good news in the forecast with no more rain through the 26th at least. There is a chance for rain the 27th, but models are backing off that for our area and it looks to be more of a north storm.

I think we all need a break, anyway. I know that this week has been intense for me.

We felt trapped yesterday as the waters filled the streets at my office. The only way out was to take the high roads. Everything was flooded to the south. It is amazing to me that people that see an area is flooded and they still drive through it and get trapped.

Here are some photos that I took from my travels and right out side my office door

Enjoy your holiday, merry Christmas and Box day to all.

Also the last bit of good news is every day forward the days get 1 to 2 minutes longer as we have passed winter solstice.

Have a great holiday with Family and friends!

There are some great football and basketball games on this weekend and Christmas Day.

Best,
Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Wow, with all the rain this week I really had to think about what day it was... I started to type Wednesday then I had to check.

The heaviest rain is now over Ventura and moving into LA. Early this morning Oxnard area and Silver Strand Beach got 3 inches of rain in 3 hours.

Looking at the zoom earth you can see the center of the low is just offshore of point conception https://zoom.earth/ ...just west of us.

This is going to bring us numerous showers and rain through out today. Expect rain heavy at times amounting to another 1 to 3 inches through Friday.

Wrap around moisture will occur late today into Friday with showers throughout the day, but Friday will be drier.

By Saturday, the low-pressure system will move East, and the rain will be over, here with only some stray showers in LA.

I would hate to be traveling by air or even car in LA today. There is going to be tons of delays and many accidents on the road.

Stay away from there if you can.

Sunday, Christmas Eve day, the rain will be all but a memory. We will have 3 days of great weather with high pressure building in through Tuesday the 26th.

Wednesday and Thursday of next week, long range models are hinting another storm. However that is a Christmas away.

Here are the numbers so far rainfall has been 3 to 8 inches for most this week so far https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Just look at rocky Butte in SLO with over 15 inches of rain so far this week https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSLO

Enjoy the rain, it will be showery more than steady rain the next two days.
4 days till Christmas

Jack Martin

Good morning,

The rain was very affective the past 2 days with good accumulation. Santa Barbara 1.75, Montecito 2.6 and KTYD tower over 5.58 inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

I would say that is a pretty good storm, but the real rain has not started yet. Here it is spinning tightly off the San Francisco coast https://zoom.earth/

This is moving into position to bring us heavy rain starting early this afternoon through most of Thursday. Winds will pick up from the south and blow in the mountains at 45 mile an hour. Here we will feel winds but nothing like the mountains. For today light to moderate rain this morning, then the tap opens up this afternoon and rain will be come heavy at times, for the next 24 to 36 hours. rain rates at .30 to .60 per hour. Rain totals will be 4 to 8 inches and 5 to 10 inches on south facing mountains of Santa Barbara and Santa Ynez

If and where thunderstorms occur rain rates may go more than 1 inch per hour. It is going to be a very wet period with some flooding likely. I will be watching the rain and radar as we get into the afternoon. Rain will continue through Thursday, then Friday we will see some showers, but the rain will begin to end. Still a chance for very light rain Saturday, but the system will likely be over until Wednesday of next week. We will be dry through the 26th of December (amen for Jack to visit with family)

Wednesday next week the forecast gets questionable with another system. Looking at the long-term models they are calling for more rain before the 2nd of January.

Enjoy the wild weather, and by the way 5 days till Christmas and Thursday is winter solstice with the shortest day of the year. With all the rain that might be a good thing

Just so you know Cachuma is at 88.9% and will likely fill the earliest we have seen in many years https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

We are looking at steady light rain this morning https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

As you can see on zoom earth satellite, storm #2 is in the picture now https://zoom.earth/

Don’t be confused with yesterday’s storm that went to the north and east, this one slide into place and is now rolling down the coast.

Today we should see light rain and accumulations of ½ to 1 inch of rain. Rain rates will be light at 1/10 to ¼ per hour.

There will be some breaks, but more steady light rain is likely today.

Tonight and through Thursday the second storm stalls over point conception and pumps in sub-tropical moisture

Yes, as advertised this one will be a doozie. 2 to 4 inches for all, but south facing Santa Barbara mountain 4 to 7 inches.

Rain will be heavy for 24 to 36 hours Wednesday into mid Thursday. South flow and subtropical moisture make a classic winter storm in California

Expect some flooding in areas especially as the rains ramp up Wednesday

Friday it looks like it will move east with a few showers possible and by Saturday it all clears out.

It does look like we have high pressure building in through Tuesday and dry weather for Christmas.

Enjoy the rain, it will get wild within the next 24 hours.

Good Monday morning,

Not much Action out there at this point, but there are a few interesting things going on.

It is quite warm this morning, crazy warm, 59 in Santa Ynez and 66 along the coast in Santa Barbara.
The rain really has been light to non-existent at this point.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=39.49,-130.75,5z

The upper low is too far offshore and rising to the Northeast, keeping the rain to the north.

Don’t fear it will still arrive, just giving us a little more time to get ready for it. Rain will arrive later this morning or afternoon, but this first storm will be much lighter.

Rain today and Tuesday will be around ½ an inch to 1.5 inch in higher elevations. Rain will start out light then pick up tonight and most of Tuesday.

The second storm is what it will be all about. This system promises to be a strong storm. This starts up Tuesday night into Thursday, but rain will occur into Friday.

This system will wobble down the coast, and park, pumping in moisture from the subtropical jet. Yes, we are still on track for a lot of rain.

How much? Well models are still saying 2 to 5 inches, with 4 to 7 inches possible on south facing mountains.

Saturday it looks like we clear up for Christmas.

Enjoy the fun, it will get much more interesting!

Jack Martin

Good Sunday evening almost 7 PM and look at me doing the weather report. What the heck! It was a fantastic weekend and ending Sunday night with great sunsets, but changes are happening fast.

I think I have said this a couple times but as the models get closer to the event, it looks like it is going to be a bigger event. I’m gonna have to monitor it as we get closer but rain will start up tonight. Won’t be super heavy Rain both on Monday and Tuesday with the first system accumulation 1 inch with the first.

The next system will arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday. We’re gonna see first wave of the system bring us another inch and a half.

Thursday and Friday is the wildcard but the wildcard is probably worth playing because it is looking like it’s gonna produce a bunch more rain. Computer models tonight are talking about 4 1/2 inches of rain and that may be pushing it a little bit but it’s gonna be a wet week. The good news and the silver lining looks like the rain will go away on Saturday and we should have decent weather for Christmas.

Of course, more to come, enjoy your evening bring an umbrella.

Stay tuned, rates go up this time of year 😂

Jack Martin