Jack's Weather Report

I thought I would give a quick update. The rain has started delayed slightly but it will hang around longer.

The latest update now shows up to 10 inches falling in the mountains with rain rates at 1 ¼ inch per hour later tonight. Rain will really start to come down hard around 10 pm and last into the Thursday morning hours.

All systems go for our storm system, with minimal changes. Rain amounts and intensity forecast remain unchanged, with the caveat of mentioning isolated totals to 10 inches and rates to 1.25 inches per hour. The storm will peak in intensity tonight over SLO and Santa Barbara Counties and over Ventura and LA Counties Thursday morning. The storm looks to move very slowly over Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, which is why they will likely see the highest amounts.

This is a lot of water and the threat of flooding is a real concern. Expect a lot of roadway flooding, including a few freeway closures.

The Thursday morning commute will be bad. Several small streams will likely flood and spill over. Stay out of and away from any creeks and drainages as these could become dangerous quickly.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning, 

Before I get into the weather forecast, I want to let everyone know that my forecast is on my website daily. If you miss or want to read past forecasts for fun reading. just go to https://www.aroofing.com/  then on the top center there is a tab Jack’s weather report. Click on that and you will see the current and past reports.

Now for the report........

Today’s date is 1234 but not in that order. We are starting out quite warm out there at 57 degrees. Today is also the start of the next storm system and this will be one we will remember for some time. All the ingredients are in place. Strong pacific closed low, south winds, and subtropical moisture.

here is how it looks right now. https://zoom.earth/#view=37.4,-126.4,4.87z/map=live

All of these elements are present that spell a very strong system that will affect us for the next 26 to 30 hours. Light rain is starting up right now across the area, this is on the light side and will continue to be light to moderate though out the day. This will be a steady rain from the warm air across the area. This will last for a good 12 hours, and accumulations will be anywhere from 1/4 to 3/4 coastal, but because of the south winds in Santa Barbara and especially the southern mountains of SB. SLO and Ventura will see 1 to 2 inches of rain ahead of the real Action.

Tonight the strong low moves over us, this will bring 60 to 70-mile-an-hour south winds to the mountain ahead of the big rains. This evening the heavier rain will begin to ramp up, as the closed low gets closer. By 10 pm we should see this event really begin. Rain rates will get to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour coastal. On south-facing mountains, they could see 1 inch plus per hour at times. Rain will fall for a 30-hour period from now to noon Thursday. Rainfall will be 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains.

Thursday at noon the system leaves and we will have a dry Friday to recover from this system.

For the weekend, the wet pattern continues. A weaker low arrives Saturday and will affect SLO county and possibly Santa Barbara county.

Monday a stronger system affects us all with early rain totals of 1 to 3 inches. 

Later in the week, there is even one more system that will affect us.

Needless to say, we will be seeing a lot of rain over the next 10 days, with today’s system being the biggest. 

Enjoy the craziness, we really need the rain to capture in our dry lakes, all creeks will really be flowing by the end of the day. The good news is no creeks are predicted to overflow. We will be testing the new debris basins. 

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Yesterday the rain really underperformed with only ¼ of an inch of rain. This will not be the case starting Wednesday.

Today is all about preparing for the rain starting Wednesday morning. It will be one of the biggest storms we have seen in many years.

To start the forecast today I wanted to talk about lake levels because the numbers are soon to change.

Lake Cachuma will hit 32% today, Gibraltar is at 57% and once it spills on Thursday all the water will flow into Lake Cachuma https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf  

Yes,  you heard me Gibraltar will spill.

This is great news for our lake levels and this storm will be the strongest since the Mudflows 4 years ago. Don’t worry It will not be a repeat of that.

The hills are stable, and we will not see as much rain as that event, but it will pour overnight Wednesday and the first half of Thursday.

…..I guess I have your attention now …..

Today will be a dry day, with no rain. High clouds will start to roll in this afternoon as the warm front arrives overnight Tuesday.

Rain will start up Wednesday morning with a good south flow, this means good steady rain, but the rates will not be more than 1/3 of an inch per hour.

We will still see good accumulations Wednesday with 1 to 2 inches falling on south-facing hills. Then Wednesday night the event really starts. Heavy rain will occur with rain rates of 1 inch per hour, the Santa Ynez mountains could see 1.5 inches per hour at the peak. Rain will continue into the first half of Thursday heavy at times.

When the rains start to back off, we will see 2 to 4 inches coastal, Montecito 5 inches, and the Santa Ynez mountains 6 to 8 inches. This spells great news for lake levels.

Thursday afternoon the rain begins to back off, with some showers possible. Rain showers will continue in the forecast on and off through the entire weekend.

Next week we are looking for 1 more system on the 10th, then we should see a break “Amen”

As I said today is about getting ready for this one. It will be a busy day at Action. If you need help, we will be there in force.

Have a great day, dry for 24 hours, then the fun begins.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning 2023,

I hope everyone had a nice New Year. Banks, government, schools, and banks are all closed today, but not roofers.

We will be preparing for a busy work week, with lots of rain to come. Today is a break until tonight, then welcome back rain.

https://zoom.earth/ 

As the morning progresses, we will see high clouds start to stream in. This will not bring any rain until tonight.

Monday night into Tuesday we will see more rain, likely ½ to 1 inch with 1 more inch in the mountains. It is amazing because San Marcos Pass has received over 21 inches of rain since Sept 1st and 65% of the annual rainfall, and that does not include this week’s rain totals.

Countywide we are at around 50% of annual rainfall.

and 169% of the average for this time of year. needless to say, we are on the right track for above-normal rainfall for the season. Lake levels have not been updated because of the holiday. Nacimento 27% Cachuma 31.7% but all levels totals are growing and will continue to increase. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Tuesday will be dry, with a small pop-up ridge. This will bring a warmer day with a high in the mid-60s. However, this will be short-lived.

Wednesday the rain starts, this will be like Saturday’s storm, but stronger. Rain will start up Wednesday morning just like Saturday’s system. This is the prefrontal rain and will be on the lighter side bringing another inch of rain. Look out Wednesday night as the Main front arrives. This will be the event, south flow, atmospheric river, and heavy rain. This will bring lots of rain. Coastal 2.5 inches, foothills (Montecito) 4 inches, and the mountains of Santa Ynez over 6 inches of rain.” It will be wild. “

Rain will fall through Thursday then we dry out Friday, for the weekend the storm track continues, but it looks to shift to the north. The rain will be around, but we might see only smaller amounts. The bay area will continue to see lots of rain. Looking into the crystal ball more rain the week of the 9th through Wednesday, but after that, it looks like we might see a break

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/santa-barbara/ext

In the short term, we will see lots of additional rain this week, with flooding possible Wednesday night and Thursday. I will be watching the lake levels all week.

Enjoy one more dry day and the Rose Bowl parade and game today. We will be back Tuesday with the next update

Jack Martin

Good New Year’s day, don’t forget to put a 23 at the end of the date now.

How sweet was that rain yesterday, the forecast models performed perfectly, and the system overperformed.

We saw great rain totals for all. Just in the past 24 hours, San Marcos Pass 4.5 inches, Montecito 3 inches, and Santa Barbara 2.5 inches.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA That’s just a great way to end 2022!

If you were bold enough to go out last night, this is what you saw (movie above) “Thanks Polly “

Today, it is a warm start at 50 degrees, but the mercury will only rise 9 degrees to 59 degrees with wind out there.

With the rain and the wind the views today should be fantastic, the islands looking close enough to touch.

Monday we will have a chilly start to the day, but dry for most of the day. More rain will arrive late afternoon and in LA later Monday night.

This system will be weaker with only ½ to 1 inch. Still decent but we are spoiled right now with the heavy rainfall totals of late.

Tuesday the rain ends, and we dry out for 2 days, but look out Wednesday night. If the models are right this is going to be a repeat of last night and might even be better. Rain will continue through most of Thursday heavy at times and totals 2 to 4 inches and much more in the mountains. This system will be over a 12-hour period, which means it will pour at times. I can’t wait to see how this week’s rains affect the lake totals ( more to come).

Friday and Saturday are dry with more rain arriving Sunday and the week following.

Always great news to report lots of rain to come.

Happy New Year 2023!

Jack Martin

Good morning New Year's Eve day, 

Rain, what a wonderful 4 letter word for California to have. 

Looking back I can not remember the last time that we had 3 weeks of rain straight with just some short breaks.

Well, that’s what it is looking like, with rain all this next week and the week following. We will start out with the present and work from there. 

This morning 12/31/22 the prefrontal showers began last night. We have seen steady light rain all night amounting to .15 to .20 for most locations, however, the heavies rain is still 8 hours away. Here is zoom earth to show you from the sky https://zoom.earth/

The heavy rain is just north of the Bay Area right now, for us Today we will see the light rain continue this morning, then gradually pick up as we get into the afternoon. this is a cool graphic showing the heavy rain moving down the coast of California https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EOM980NrNw4

The bulk of this storm will arrive around 5 pm to midnight for Santa Barbara, with a few hours earlier to the north and later for the south. This has good south winds and good subtropical moisture support, which all spell a heavy rain event. Rainfall rates will be .50 to .75 inches per hour at their peak. Rainfall will be 1 to 3 inches coastal with 3 inches in Montecito and up to 4 inches in the hills. All in all just what the doctor ordered to help our drought. Winds in the mountains will be 40 to 60 miles an hour on south faces which will enhance rainfall. 

Sunday and New Year’s Day, the sun will shine. It will be quite chilly but a nice day to welcome 2023. 

Sunday night will be quite chilly with the 30s and 40s for all. 

Monday if you are attending the Rose parade, dress warm because it will be in the 30s to start the parade.

The good news is it should be dry, as that tradition continues. 

On a side note :

Do you know how many people have moved to California after attending a rose bowl game? I really don't know the numbers, but I was one of those back in 1981 when it was 89 degrees on Jan 1st. “That was a life-changing call for me “

Now back to the weather. 

Monday for us will start out fine, but more rain will arrive in the afternoon. This is not a big system, but it will keep us all wet. 

Tuesday is another dry day then look out for Wednesday. If the midrange models are correct this will be the biggest system of all. At this point 2 to 4 inches and double that in the mountains. We could go on with the extended forecast, but it is controlled by computer models at this point so we will save that for another forecast . Just a hint, if the models are right, we still have another week of rain into the 10th of January. 

In the meantime, Happy New Year in 17 hours and enjoy the rain. 

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

2022 is almost behind us and more rain is on its way. I thought I would start with lake levels.

They are on the rise ever so slowly but look out next week as all the rain starts to flow into our lakes.

Here are the current numbers as of 8 am yesterday https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

We are at 146% county-wide for the rain of normal to this time of year. we have received around 40% rainfall for the year.

This is all a good start, but the real fun is still to come as we have a series of rain systems coming in the next 2 weeks.

Now let’s talk about the current forecast.

Today, not many action clouds will lead to less rain than we had Thursday, which really did not amount to anything.

It was a Seattle-like day, just damp and cloudy. Today will be one more of these, but even less rain or dampness today.

https://zoom.earth/ 

Tonight the low to the North will move in. We will see some lighter rain prefrontal through Saturday morning.

Saturday afternoon the real rain moves in and lasts through midnight. It will be a good storm for Santa Barbara with more rain here and good rain everywhere.

This will bring heavier rain rates of .50 to .75 per hour. all in all 1 to 2 inches coastal 3 inches south foothills in Montecito and 4 inches in the mountains.

New year’s day, is chilly and sunny. Highs will be in the 50s. Overnight Sunday into Monday 30s in the valleys and 40s coastal (cold)

Next week will be very interesting, Monday night we are looking at some more rain, but there will be an extremely strong system Wednesday into Friday.

if all plays out according to the models next week it will be wild with lots of rainfall, and the better news we have another week of rain after that.

Wet through the 10th of January with storm after storm and the atmospheric river combining with all the systems.

This is going to be a great start to 2023!

Enjoy :)

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday Morning,

I hope everyone had a great holiday, If you are at home in Santa Barbara, we are looking at rain today. If you are at an airport, you have a different storm of your own. Southwest is a huge mess with 71% of its flights canceled. I am more than happy to be in my house typing on my computer.

Monday was a tropical day with a high of 75 with high clouds. The views from the pass looking out over the ocean were fantastic. Today we are looking at a storm system bringing rain to us around noon. You can see it on zoom earth with some subtropical support, which will bring us good rain, starting around noon in SB and it will be over by midnight  https://zoom.earth/ .

Rain is starting in far north SLO right now and will drop south arriving in Santa Ynez around 10 am. This will bring 1 to 2 inches for us, and 3 inches in the mountain. Rain rates will be 1/4 to 1/2 inch. light to moderate event.

Wednesday morning will bring in the cold air, with lots of clouds over the hills that may spill some showers into the area. For the most part, it will be mostly dry.

Thursday will bring another plume of moisture with rain chances increasing again. Friday looks to be dry, but we will see another stronger system on new year's eve (Saturday). This one will drop another 1 to 3 inches with better south winds, so the mountains are looking at better rainfall.

Rain Sunday and it looks like the pattern of wetness will continue into the first week of 2023 with another system Tuesday. This is still too far out to call, but we will be in a wet pattern for the next week. which is great news to me, because the rain needs to fill our lakes. 

Enjoy the rain, I know I will!

Jack Martin

What an amazing Christmas day, I spent most of my day in Santa Ynez and went for a bike ride.

The unofficial high was 85 to 89 degrees in my truck. Regardless it was an Epic warm day on December 25th

Driving back to SB early this morning it was still 64 on the pass, but 52 in SB. https://zoom.earth/

Today will be overall nice, with high clouds starting the stream ahead of the storm system that will arrive Tuesday.

Today’s highs will be in the low 70s, cooling off from Christmas day. Tonight some cooling but no rain until Tuesday

Tuesday rain will start up North to south. It now looks like the rain will be delayed until later in the afternoon for Santa Barbara.

Rain will start up in SLO Monday morning, then work its way into Santa Ynez Tuesday afternoon, then to SB late afternoon.

This system has a weak atmospheric river with it, but more of a west–north flow. what does this mean?

More rain to the north in SLO and to Santa Ynez, and less rain as it goes around point conception. Don’t be discouraged it will still be a pretty good storm

SLO and northern Santa Barbara county will see 1 to 3 inches of rain. west-facing mountains up to 5 inches. SB will see 1 to 2 inches and up to 3 inches in the mountains

LA .5 to 1.5 inches overnight Tuesday. Wednesday maybe some showers, but for the most part dry. Thursday and Friday the pattern continues for a chance of rain.

it will be showery with some sun at the time. looking into the weekend it looks like a stronger system will move down the coast, bringing us another good system.

The bottom line we are moving into a wet pattern with on-and-off rain all week, turn off the sprinklers and enjoy the wet.

Enjoy the 70s today, they go away for a while.

 

Jack Martin

From Santa village good Saturday morning, 

If you are one of the lucky ones to be waking up in Southern California, break out your bathing suits and suntan lotion. It is going to be the finest next 3 days that the rest of the country wishes they had. This will be one of those weekends that reminds us that we truly live in paradise.

Highs through Monday will be in the 70s, with 80s sprinkled in on Saturday and Christmas 🤶  Day. 

It is absolutely freezing in the rest of the country. C
https://zoom.earth/#view=26.4,-126,3.45z/map=live

Simple weather summary 

Today: the 70s 

Christmas Day: 70s and 80s 

Monday: 70s 

Tuesday: rain 

Yes, let’s back up to the Tuesday part. First, the good part, is we have great weather though the holiday. 

Tuesday a storm system rolls in and rain is in the forecast. This system is shaping up to bring us good rain. Mainly SLO and Santa Barbara county, but we are in the bullseye.

Rain is looking better with totals of 1.5 inches to 2.5 inches and up to 4 inches in the mountains. 

Rain will linger into Wednesday with another shot of rain at the end of the week. 

Yes, we do need the rain, and a post-Christmas present will be loved.

Check out my view of Santa Workshop village below my house or at least the lights make it look like it is.

I love a California Christmas, it took 21 years to figure it out, but I am never leaving. 

Enjoy the holiday, California style, Merry Christmas, and Happy Hanukkah to some of my good friends.