1/3/23

By Jack Martin on Jan 03, 2023 at 02:30 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

Yesterday the rain really underperformed with only ¼ of an inch of rain. This will not be the case starting Wednesday.

Today is all about preparing for the rain starting Wednesday morning. It will be one of the biggest storms we have seen in many years.

To start the forecast today I wanted to talk about lake levels because the numbers are soon to change.

Lake Cachuma will hit 32% today, Gibraltar is at 57% and once it spills on Thursday all the water will flow into Lake Cachuma https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf  

Yes,  you heard me Gibraltar will spill.

This is great news for our lake levels and this storm will be the strongest since the Mudflows 4 years ago. Don’t worry It will not be a repeat of that.

The hills are stable, and we will not see as much rain as that event, but it will pour overnight Wednesday and the first half of Thursday.

…..I guess I have your attention now …..

Today will be a dry day, with no rain. High clouds will start to roll in this afternoon as the warm front arrives overnight Tuesday.

Rain will start up Wednesday morning with a good south flow, this means good steady rain, but the rates will not be more than 1/3 of an inch per hour.

We will still see good accumulations Wednesday with 1 to 2 inches falling on south-facing hills. Then Wednesday night the event really starts. Heavy rain will occur with rain rates of 1 inch per hour, the Santa Ynez mountains could see 1.5 inches per hour at the peak. Rain will continue into the first half of Thursday heavy at times.

When the rains start to back off, we will see 2 to 4 inches coastal, Montecito 5 inches, and the Santa Ynez mountains 6 to 8 inches. This spells great news for lake levels.

Thursday afternoon the rain begins to back off, with some showers possible. Rain showers will continue in the forecast on and off through the entire weekend.

Next week we are looking for 1 more system on the 10th, then we should see a break “Amen”

As I said today is about getting ready for this one. It will be a busy day at Action. If you need help, we will be there in force.

Have a great day, dry for 24 hours, then the fun begins.

Jack Martin

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Your crew and the entire staff of Action are great! Thanks so much for helping us out.
Gerry & Ann