12/31/22

By Jack Martin on Dec 31, 2022 at 08:02 PM

Good morning New Year's Eve day, 

Rain, what a wonderful 4 letter word for California to have. 

Looking back I can not remember the last time that we had 3 weeks of rain straight with just some short breaks.

Well, that’s what it is looking like, with rain all this next week and the week following. We will start out with the present and work from there. 

This morning 12/31/22 the prefrontal showers began last night. We have seen steady light rain all night amounting to .15 to .20 for most locations, however, the heavies rain is still 8 hours away. Here is zoom earth to show you from the sky https://zoom.earth/

The heavy rain is just north of the Bay Area right now, for us Today we will see the light rain continue this morning, then gradually pick up as we get into the afternoon. this is a cool graphic showing the heavy rain moving down the coast of California https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EOM980NrNw4

The bulk of this storm will arrive around 5 pm to midnight for Santa Barbara, with a few hours earlier to the north and later for the south. This has good south winds and good subtropical moisture support, which all spell a heavy rain event. Rainfall rates will be .50 to .75 inches per hour at their peak. Rainfall will be 1 to 3 inches coastal with 3 inches in Montecito and up to 4 inches in the hills. All in all just what the doctor ordered to help our drought. Winds in the mountains will be 40 to 60 miles an hour on south faces which will enhance rainfall. 

Sunday and New Year’s Day, the sun will shine. It will be quite chilly but a nice day to welcome 2023. 

Sunday night will be quite chilly with the 30s and 40s for all. 

Monday if you are attending the Rose parade, dress warm because it will be in the 30s to start the parade.

The good news is it should be dry, as that tradition continues. 

On a side note :

Do you know how many people have moved to California after attending a rose bowl game? I really don't know the numbers, but I was one of those back in 1981 when it was 89 degrees on Jan 1st. “That was a life-changing call for me “

Now back to the weather. 

Monday for us will start out fine, but more rain will arrive in the afternoon. This is not a big system, but it will keep us all wet. 

Tuesday is another dry day then look out for Wednesday. If the midrange models are correct this will be the biggest system of all. At this point 2 to 4 inches and double that in the mountains. We could go on with the extended forecast, but it is controlled by computer models at this point so we will save that for another forecast . Just a hint, if the models are right, we still have another week of rain into the 10th of January. 

In the meantime, Happy New Year in 17 hours and enjoy the rain. 

Jack Martin

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