Jack's Weather Report

Good Saturday morning,

Not a lot of changes to our weather from the pattern we have been in in the past 4 weeks. I thought I would start the forecast today with an interesting fact.

As most of us are aware Santa Barbara has flooded this week, and it was pretty much through the lowest areas in Santa Barbara from the ocean and up Salsipuedes.

Do you know the Spanish meaning of this name in English?  It is “Leave if you can”

translated from Spanish as "leave if you can." Salsipuedes: Name was given to a marginal neighborhood, located on the outskirts of the municipality of Soledad, Department of Atlántico, Colombia. Do you know any other Meaning of salsipuedes?

www.wordmeaning.org/spanish/salsipuedes.htm

SALSIPUEDES - Spanish open dictionary

If you draw a line from the ocean up Salsipuedes that’s where all the flooding was this week.

Back to the weather today and for the next 3 days, it is all about on and off rain. With 2 systems that will roll through us and give good rain totals.

The good news is the rain will be moderate, but not crazy like we saw Monday. The best part of the rains is most lakes and reservoirs will top this weekend.

The rain right now is off to the north in the bay area https://zoom.earth/ the core of the low will drop south during the day today and rain will start up again.

Rain in SLO this morning and dropping into Santa Barbara late morning. Rain rates will be ½ per hour later in the day. (this is half of what Monday's storm was)

Rain totals today will be .75 to 1.5 inches coastal and 1.5 to 3 inches in the mountains. The rain tonight will end overnight, and we will be mostly dry on Sunday.

Sunday night the next storm rolls in. This is much colder and some local mountains in Santa Ynez will see snow.

Rain totals with Monday’s system will be lighter with another .5 to .75 inch coastal and .75 to 1.5 in the mountains.

The rain right now is moving into Paseo robles https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

Now the good news, it now looks like we see light at the end of the tunnel. Starting Tuesday and through the rest of the week we will see dry weather.

An inside slider Thursday, with just some wind, then Friday high pressure, and offshore winds Friday then a dry weekend. The first dry weekend since Christmas.

I might even get a day off after doing 30-plus days in a row. This will be a real treat for all. I don’t know about you, but I need a break from all this rain.

It is a Mission accomplished if we filled all the reservoirs and lakes.

For fun when do you think Lake Cachuma will top? it is at 87.4% right now. My guess is 2 am on Sunday.

Enjoy the last wet weekend, bring back the sun please.

Jack Martin

Happy Friday the 13th,

Did you know that Friday the 13th comes an average of every 212 days?

Did you know the myth of Friday the 13th goes back centuries https://www.cnn.com/style/article/why-friday-13-unlucky-explained/index.html

Now enough for trivia here is the forecast …

Today is transition day, rain will start to return later today. It does look like everyone will stay dry most of the day but light rain will fall late this afternoon into tonight ¼ of an inch.

Rain tonight will taper off and then Saturday we will see the second stronger impulse come in. It might even stay dry in the morning Saturday and then pick up as the day goes on.

Rain Saturday night into Sunday morning then a brief break. Rain rates will be ½ inch per hour, but it will move through much faster with 3 to 6 hours of rain.

Totals will be 1 to 1.5 coastal and around 3 inches in the mountains. This will not be like Monday’s system; it is a quick hitter.

Sunday will be dry most of the day, but chilly. Highs of only 60 degrees, Sunday night the next system comes in. This is a much colder system with lower snow levels.

Monday rain most of the day with snow levels around 3500 to 4500 feet. This will bring another inch of rain for most, and a bit higher in the hills.

Tuesday looks to be a fair day as the system exists, then we are looking at a dry period starting Wednesday, hopefully for an extended period

Some interesting facts about lakes in the Santa Barbara area

Lake Cachuma is currently at 86.2%.  It will spill with the rains from the upcoming event.

Monday’s storm broke some incredible records. It was very impressive.

San Marcos Pass, 24hr Rainfall = 13.24 (previous record = 10.55 (WY2005) – also record rainfall for 6hr, 8hr, and 12hr periods.

Gibraltar Dam, 24hr Rainfall = 11.15 (previous record = 10.90 (WY2011)

The USGS Santa Ynez River gauge site measuring the main inflow to Cachuma (~50k cfs, @Los Laureles), has reported only two higher river flows in the 75-year history of the gauge site, Water-Years 1969 (~67k cfs) and 1998 (~56k cfs).

Reservoir capacities preceding the 1969 and 1998 peak inflows were at relatively high levels of 76% and 89%, respectively, versus the much lower ~36% capacity this year – resulting in a more significant reservoir volume increase..

Peak Cachuma Reservoir level rise was approximately 2ft per hour.

Happy Friday the 13th enjoy the fun day, no strikes today Maybe Monday.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Today will be the warmest and driest day in the next 7, but not a chamber of commerce day. The only reason this will be the best day is that wet weather is returning through Tuesday of next week with 2 more storms affecting us.

This will top all lakes and reservoirs from all counties around us. Cachuma 84.2%, Nacimiento 73% with all climbing. https://nrwmac.org/lake-levels/  Just look at this graphic. Countywide we have received 102% of annual rainfall and it is just early January. and 270% of normal rainfall for the year to date, yes doing math that is almost 3 times normal rainfall. This does not even include the next 2 upcoming storms.

https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf      …… just crazy numbers………

So what’s happening today and the rest of the week?

Today we have a weak ridge that has pushed the storm track to the North, we will still see some high clouds and no rain. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Friday the storm track begins to shift towards us again. It looks like a dry Friday, but Friday night and Saturday the rain is back. We are looking at 1 to 1.5 inches coastal and 3 inches in the mountains. We will see heavy rain, but not as hard as Monday for 3 to 6 hours ½ inch per hour. This system even has a lot of lightning with it, so it needs to be watched.

Sunday, we get a short break between the 2 storms with only some very light showers. Sunday night the next system rolls towards us. This is a cold system and snow levels will be much lower. This will likely give the Santa Ynez mountains some white caps, it will be a pretty view.

Tuesday will be cold, but the rain should be gone. Wednesday they are talking about a ridge building ….. this means the tap will be turned off and we will get back to some dry weather for a change. It has been an amazing (no historical) 4 weeks of rain. We will remember this year for a long time.

Let’s get ready for more rain and all lakes to top…. enjoy the ride, you can't stop it…

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Wow, I had to stop and think what day it is because I have worked so many days in a row, I forgot the day.

It has been absolutely amazing with all the rain the past 3 weeks, and we have 1 more week of weather to battle.

Good news for southern California, we will see 2 dry days before the rain comes back. high pressure and offshore flow have been built-in for 2 days.

This is pushing the storm track to the north, but northern California and Oregon are still getting hammered https://zoom.earth/#view=37.2,-127.6,4z/map=live

The only rain that may fall will be on the central coast, where they may still see some rain today and tonight. For us dry conditions, but high clouds.

Thursday mid to high clouds will continue to stream over us as the ridge begins to break down, however, we will remain dry.

Friday the storm track will begin to drop towards us again, rain will start up Friday morning to the north, then afternoon for all.

This system again has subtropical flow with the atmospheric river connection. Nothing like Monday's rain, but 1 inch coastal to 3 more inches of rain in the hills.

If that’s not enough, there is another system from Sunday night through Tuesday. This one is not clear on timing or intensity but is wetter.

All of this wild weather has been fantastic for lake levels. It is absolutely amazing that lake Cachuma has gone from 30% at Christmas to over 80% today (and rising)

It is at 81% right now Dashboard (cosbpw.net)  It is also expected to spill before the end of the next 2 storms.

ENJOY A FEW DRY DAYS, I KNOW I WILL.

Jack Martin

OMG, what a day yesterday. Just increasable rain totals, but look at this result Lake Cachuma is at 66.7% and filling fast Dashboard (cosbpw.net) which is just amazing!

Look at these amazing rain totals for 24 hours, yes, a 1-day period. Montecito 7.5 inches, Santa Barbara 6 inches, San Marcos pass 14.60. just crazy …..

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA  SB crushed the totals in SLO but still amazing totals https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSLO

The rain stopped last night so we could all get a few hours of sleep. Today we will see round 2 starts up. round 2 is the core of the low.

This will bring heavy rain, wind, thunder, lightning, and waterspouts or small tornados. This does not have the subtropical atmospheric river, which has shifted to the south. There will still be plenty of Action today with a few more inches of rain to fall, and more on south-facing mountains. As I type the rain is starting again right now.

The rain will end by tonight. then we will have 3 dry days to attempt to recover. more rain Saturday, then another system on Monday of next week.

when will it stop, well at this point not until lake Cachuma is overflowing, yes overflowing !!!. how many years has it been since the lake was full?

Holy Moly this has been historical, even the 1998 El Nino year was not this crazy!

Hwy 154 will remain closed for some time. Be careful out there.

Action Trucks will be filling the streets soon, trying to stop leaky roofs, windows, walls, and decks.

It is dumping at my house again right now 5:10 am

Stay dry.

Jack Martin

Good, rainy Monday morning, 

It seems like the rain just will not stop. It was a wet Sunday with only a short break before the rain returned Sunday night.

The rain will continue to fall at a steady rate of 1/4 inch per hour until late afternoon when the skies really open up.

Most areas have already seen 2 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and there is a lot more to follow. 

The heaviest rain will show up in 2 waves, for us at 4 pm today and Tuesday morning when rates will be 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour.

yes, I said per hour ….. there will be a lull overnight then heavy rain returns Tuesday morning. Looking at the satellite you can see the atmospheric river stretched across the Pacific Ocean. This will be the supply and the low to the north will join then boom the heavy rain arrives later today,
https://zoom.earth/#view=33.8,-143.7,3.75z/map=live

Ironically today is the 5-year anniversary of the mud flow in Montecito.

This event will not reoccur today but flooding of areas is likely. The ground is saturated, and the only way out is our creeks and rivers.

It would be a great river rafting trip, but I don’t advise trying that. Creeks and rivers will likely have some flooding in the heaviest rain. 

All in all this storm is going to be the biggest storm of the season to date. Expect 3 to 5 inches in SB, 4 to 8 in the mountains, and up to 10 inches of favorable south slopes. 

The winds are from the south and will pick up as the day goes on. Expect 30 to 40-mile-an-hour winds in the coastal and foothills and 60 miles an hour in the mountains.

Rain will back off Tuesday night. With a ridge building in for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday should also be mostly dry, but another system rolls in for Saturday. This will not be as big, but a good 6 hours of heavy rain is looking likely. This on top of everything we have seen in the past 3 weeks is going to really affect the lake and reservoir levels for the right reasons. All lakes will be well about the 50% levels. It will be amazing to have this much water back.

As always enjoy the ride. It will be wet for at least the next week.

Stay dry

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Waking up this morning you will see the rain is back. Today we have a weaker system rolling through that will cause rain for the first half of the day.

Radar shows the rain falling currently  https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

We are expecting around ½ of an inch out of this system, with a few areas in northern SLO mountains seeing 1 to 2.5 inches at locations like rocky butte. This will fall apart as it reaches LA, meaning just some rain will occur there, ¼ inch or less.

A slight break this afternoon, then here we go again tonight. The opening act will begin to play into the weather. This will start out with lighter rain tonight and most of Monday . by the time Monday night comes the headline act starts, and it will blow us up. then the encore for Tuesday.

 “All in fun showing this as a concert “ Monday night and Tuesday is the heart of the storm.

This will be a great system with lots of heavy rain. Rain rates will be ½ inch to 1 inch PER HOUR. the heaviest rain comes in 2 punches Monday night and Tuesday.

Rain total will be 2 to 4 inches coastal, 3 to 5 inches south facing areas “like us in SB and Montecito”. 4 to 8 inches in the mountains, and up to 10 inches in some hills in SLO . “wow”

With the grounds being saturated with all the rains, this is going to make creeks and rivers flow fast. some flooding is likely in some areas.

Rain clears out on Tuesday night, then a ridge builds in for 2 days with dry weather Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday, yes, another system rolls in. If that’s not enough they are calling for another big system next weekend and are still on the storm track for another week after that.

We are in the middle of the wettest period in a long time. it is amazing to me, but I love it. let’s fill those lakes!

Amazing changes to the lake levels. Nacimiento is now 40% full https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=22189 Cachuma 36.5 and climbing Dashboard (cosbpw.net)

I was in the Santa Ynez valley yesterday and the hills are all green and so pretty, with water running into lake Cachuma. It is a beautiful site.

Ok, that's all for today, from weather😊

 Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

One more dry day, before we are back into the rainy pattern. It is just crazy to think about how long we have been in a wet pattern.

The first storm started after Christmas on Tuesday the 27th of December, and it is now the 7th of January, so we are going on for 2 weeks now.

The crazy part is we still have storm after storm on tap until at least the 15th of January. That is almost a 4-week period of rain with only short breaks. Don’t think that I am complaining, we need the water supply. however, I don’t remember the last time we had this much rain in a 4-week period. Maybe 2005 or 1998. All good let’s get this over with and fill the lakes and reservoirs

Today, we will see a nice dry day. A little cooler than Friday, but overall a nice day.

Tonight, the rain will start up overnight. This system will stay more to the North and will bring us a lighter rain at ½ to 1 inch.

(it is funny to talk about a lighter rain at ½ to 1 inch ) rain will fall off, as it gets towards LA with 1/3 of an inch at best.

Sunday some morning rain, then we will see some peaks of the sun in the afternoon.

Sunday night the big system starts to affect our weather. This will be bigger than Wednesday’s storm, but it will act the same way. Subtropical winds will bring light to moderate rain all day Monday.

Monday night and Tuesday are game on, this will bring us heavy rain and some flooding. The ground is saturated, and water is going to flow strongly in the creeks. They are even talking about flooding in the Ventura river that wipes out the campground and homeless camps. We will see good south flow and winds. Coastal winds are 30 miles an hour from the south and mountains are 60 miles an hour. Rainfall is 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains. Just crazy amounts of rain we have not seen in many years.

Wednesday a few showers, but the storm will pretty much be over. It looks like Thursday and part of Friday will be dry.

Saturday another storm might be strong again. As a matter of fact the national weather service is calling for rain to continue, on and off through the 15th of January. Lake Cachuma has now hit 36%, with 50% looking quite good by Thursday of next week if not more. Dashboard (cosbpw.net) . Check out the full moon that Adam sent photos of, they are great shots

enjoy the day then lots more rain to follow

Jack Martin

Wow, what an amazing result from all the rain. Take a look at the Pictures of the Santa Ynez river yesterday later in the afternoon.

That dry river is flowing strongly.

Today is all about the high surf, the weather will be nice as we should see 2 dry days, before more rain Saturday night.

Right now I am listening to the local news, they should get my weather report because they are reporting lake levels with little change.

Let me give you the real facts.

The storm Wednesday was less than thought because the system blew through faster than expected because of the winds, But the results for the rain were fantastic for lakes and reservoir levels.

Gibraltar reservoir is overflowing since 11 am yesterday, with all the rain in the hills flowing into lake Cachuma.

Lake Cachuma is now at 35.1 % up over 3% in one day. With Gibraltar full, the lake will rise much faster. Click here Dashboard (cosbpw.net)

With more rain this weekend and next week, I am betting we can get to at least 50% at Cachuma by Wednesday next week.

Disclosure!! this is just me thinking about what is coming “not scientific “😊

So what’s to come, is lots more rain. Starting Saturday night 1/2 to 1 inch overnight.

We will get a break Sunday, then more rain starting Monday ahead of the Main front Monday night.

Yes, another atmospheric river is to hit Monday night. This system will be stronger or equal to Wednesday’s system. Adding another 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains: ”wow”

Even more rain into late next week and hints of another system early the week following.

For a La Nina year, I think we are doing pretty well with rainfall 😊

I love the rain, even if it makes my world crazy at work!

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

The good news for flooding, the system moved through faster and has underperformed.

https://zoom.earth/#view=38.4,-108.5,4z/map=live

The heaviest rain is now in the LA area, with showers for us for the rest of the day. There should be another wave that will hit us late morning with heavier rain.

Rain totals have been less with around 2 inches in the past 24 hours coastal and around 4 inches in the mountains. still good rain in total, but filling the lakes is the goal.

Today showers all day, but this afternoon we should see some peaks of the sun. Everything clears out tonight, and Friday will be a dry day. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA current rain totals

Friday will be a dry day, and Saturday during the day, but more rain Saturday night. This is a weaker system with 1/2 inch coastal and 1 inch in the mountains.

The great news is we are on the storm track for the next 10 days through next weekend. More rain Monday night and this might be another strong system.

Looking deeper into the extended forecast there is another storm later in the week. Needless to say, all the rain of late is keeping the ground saturated and creeks flowing.

This is great news for the lake levels, it will just take a little longer to fill them, but with continued rain, it is good news.

On a side note, Northern California has been getting hammered. Snowpack is 171% of normal for this time of year.

This is great news for runoff later in the season and water supplies.

Enjoy the rain!

Jack Martin