1/13/23

By Jack Martin on Jan 13, 2023 at 03:44 PM

Happy Friday the 13th,

Did you know that Friday the 13th comes an average of every 212 days?

Did you know the myth of Friday the 13th goes back centuries https://www.cnn.com/style/article/why-friday-13-unlucky-explained/index.html

Now enough for trivia here is the forecast …

Today is transition day, rain will start to return later today. It does look like everyone will stay dry most of the day but light rain will fall late this afternoon into tonight ¼ of an inch.

Rain tonight will taper off and then Saturday we will see the second stronger impulse come in. It might even stay dry in the morning Saturday and then pick up as the day goes on.

Rain Saturday night into Sunday morning then a brief break. Rain rates will be ½ inch per hour, but it will move through much faster with 3 to 6 hours of rain.

Totals will be 1 to 1.5 coastal and around 3 inches in the mountains. This will not be like Monday’s system; it is a quick hitter.

Sunday will be dry most of the day, but chilly. Highs of only 60 degrees, Sunday night the next system comes in. This is a much colder system with lower snow levels.

Monday rain most of the day with snow levels around 3500 to 4500 feet. This will bring another inch of rain for most, and a bit higher in the hills.

Tuesday looks to be a fair day as the system exists, then we are looking at a dry period starting Wednesday, hopefully for an extended period

Some interesting facts about lakes in the Santa Barbara area

Lake Cachuma is currently at 86.2%.  It will spill with the rains from the upcoming event.

Monday’s storm broke some incredible records. It was very impressive.

San Marcos Pass, 24hr Rainfall = 13.24 (previous record = 10.55 (WY2005) – also record rainfall for 6hr, 8hr, and 12hr periods.

Gibraltar Dam, 24hr Rainfall = 11.15 (previous record = 10.90 (WY2011)

The USGS Santa Ynez River gauge site measuring the main inflow to Cachuma (~50k cfs, @Los Laureles), has reported only two higher river flows in the 75-year history of the gauge site, Water-Years 1969 (~67k cfs) and 1998 (~56k cfs).

Reservoir capacities preceding the 1969 and 1998 peak inflows were at relatively high levels of 76% and 89%, respectively, versus the much lower ~36% capacity this year – resulting in a more significant reservoir volume increase..

Peak Cachuma Reservoir level rise was approximately 2ft per hour.

Happy Friday the 13th enjoy the fun day, no strikes today Maybe Monday.

Jack Martin

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