1/9/23

Good, rainy Monday morning, 

It seems like the rain just will not stop. It was a wet Sunday with only a short break before the rain returned Sunday night.

The rain will continue to fall at a steady rate of 1/4 inch per hour until late afternoon when the skies really open up.

Most areas have already seen 2 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and there is a lot more to follow. 

The heaviest rain will show up in 2 waves, for us at 4 pm today and Tuesday morning when rates will be 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour.

yes, I said per hour ….. there will be a lull overnight then heavy rain returns Tuesday morning. Looking at the satellite you can see the atmospheric river stretched across the Pacific Ocean. This will be the supply and the low to the north will join then boom the heavy rain arrives later today,
https://zoom.earth/#view=33.8,-143.7,3.75z/map=live

Ironically today is the 5-year anniversary of the mud flow in Montecito.

This event will not reoccur today but flooding of areas is likely. The ground is saturated, and the only way out is our creeks and rivers.

It would be a great river rafting trip, but I don’t advise trying that. Creeks and rivers will likely have some flooding in the heaviest rain. 

All in all this storm is going to be the biggest storm of the season to date. Expect 3 to 5 inches in SB, 4 to 8 in the mountains, and up to 10 inches of favorable south slopes. 

The winds are from the south and will pick up as the day goes on. Expect 30 to 40-mile-an-hour winds in the coastal and foothills and 60 miles an hour in the mountains.

Rain will back off Tuesday night. With a ridge building in for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday should also be mostly dry, but another system rolls in for Saturday. This will not be as big, but a good 6 hours of heavy rain is looking likely. This on top of everything we have seen in the past 3 weeks is going to really affect the lake and reservoir levels for the right reasons. All lakes will be well about the 50% levels. It will be amazing to have this much water back.

As always enjoy the ride. It will be wet for at least the next week.

Stay dry

Jack Martin