1/4/23

Good Wednesday morning, 

Before I get into the weather forecast, I want to let everyone know that my forecast is on my website daily. If you miss or want to read past forecasts for fun reading. just go to https://www.aroofing.com/  then on the top center there is a tab Jack’s weather report. Click on that and you will see the current and past reports.

Now for the report........

Today’s date is 1234 but not in that order. We are starting out quite warm out there at 57 degrees. Today is also the start of the next storm system and this will be one we will remember for some time. All the ingredients are in place. Strong pacific closed low, south winds, and subtropical moisture.

here is how it looks right now. https://zoom.earth/#view=37.4,-126.4,4.87z/map=live

All of these elements are present that spell a very strong system that will affect us for the next 26 to 30 hours. Light rain is starting up right now across the area, this is on the light side and will continue to be light to moderate though out the day. This will be a steady rain from the warm air across the area. This will last for a good 12 hours, and accumulations will be anywhere from 1/4 to 3/4 coastal, but because of the south winds in Santa Barbara and especially the southern mountains of SB. SLO and Ventura will see 1 to 2 inches of rain ahead of the real Action.

Tonight the strong low moves over us, this will bring 60 to 70-mile-an-hour south winds to the mountain ahead of the big rains. This evening the heavier rain will begin to ramp up, as the closed low gets closer. By 10 pm we should see this event really begin. Rain rates will get to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour coastal. On south-facing mountains, they could see 1 inch plus per hour at times. Rain will fall for a 30-hour period from now to noon Thursday. Rainfall will be 2 to 4 inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains.

Thursday at noon the system leaves and we will have a dry Friday to recover from this system.

For the weekend, the wet pattern continues. A weaker low arrives Saturday and will affect SLO county and possibly Santa Barbara county.

Monday a stronger system affects us all with early rain totals of 1 to 3 inches. 

Later in the week, there is even one more system that will affect us.

Needless to say, we will be seeing a lot of rain over the next 10 days, with today’s system being the biggest. 

Enjoy the craziness, we really need the rain to capture in our dry lakes, all creeks will really be flowing by the end of the day. The good news is no creeks are predicted to overflow. We will be testing the new debris basins. 

Jack Martin