Jack's Weather Report

Good Friday morning,

It has been a rough March with so much more rain, but today March ends and we welcome April on Saturday.

Happy birthday to Terri and Andrea. March has been an amazing month after an amazing January. With all the rain and snow in our local mountains,

It has been the coldest winter in 50 years.

We will talk about this picture for decades to come, March the 30th 2023. The Santa Barbara Mission with the hills behind yesterday (great photo Mike)

Today we start with sunshine and warmer weather. The best news is rain is not in the extended forecast. The weekend will be full of sunshine, even if it is cooler than normal.

Just look at these crazy numbers for the season to date with the rain. Santa Barbara is 35 inches, San Marcos pass 75 inches. We have almost doubled rainfall for the entire year to date.

We are 214% of normal, The pass is 222% of normal to date. This is absolutely amazing https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

and of course, all our lakes are full.

High pressure will build in today with just some high clouds at times and highs in the mid-60s, still 10 degrees below normal https://zoom.earth/

Saturday will be a great day with highs in the upper 60s and lots of sunshine.

Sunday is a nice day, but maybe some marine layer then wind in the evening from the northwest.

next week, a few inside sliders which means some wind, and no rain. April always seems to be quite windy with sundowners from the Northwest.

This will likely be part of our forecast all month. In the meantime let’s begin to look forward to putting this rainy season behind us, and beginning to enjoy the spring and summer months.

Can you imagine that we might have to turn the heater off and switch to AC in the months to come? It has been a long time.

Have a great weekend, and don’t be fooled on Saturday, April 1st

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Last night the rain came down hard in spirits as the low dropped south. Results we better than expected and totals for last night and the entire storm were greater than originally predicted.

San Marcos pass added another 3 inches to the season's totals SB 1.5 inches. last night everyone was .70 to 1.5 inches of additional rainfall https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA The low is dropping south then moving east this afternoon. Rain will be showery this morning then stops this afternoon. Currently just off the Santa Barbara coast.

https://zoom.earth/ . Here is the current radar  https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard  

The good news is we will see dry weather after today. There should be no substantial storms through mid-April. “Yes, that’s what I said “ amen

This does not mean any rain, maybe a few weak systems, but no substantial ones. let spring arrive and start to dry us out and warm us up.

Today, is chilly, with showers and snow levels at 3500 feet. highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s . 10 to 15 degrees below normal .  

Friday zonal flow which means no rain and more sun, with a few degrees of warming

Saturday and Sunday are more of the same. warming each day, but temps will still be below normal.

Next week a weak system will bring showers to the interior but should keep us dry. cooler, but what’s new?

As I said we are then looking at an extended dry period. April brings spring flowers and warmer temps. I am hoping this holds true. it has been a long wet rainy season.

Have a great day, 2 days left in March.

Jack Martin

On another rainy day,

Good Wednesday morning, for more rain …. Where the rain has been on the lighter side, it is adding up quickly. In general, the forecast has been right on track, but some higher totals so far.

Basically ranging from .50 to 1.5 inches so far, but climbing. The pass has seen over 1.5 inches. Goleta 0.70, surprisingly Montecito is at 0.47 but climbing now. The big winner so far has been at Rocky Butte with 2.5 inches.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA  You can see on the satellite that we are just seeing the leading edge of the front which will move past us in the next few hours before we will get a break before the heart of the storm arrives https://zoom.earth/ 

The main low is in Nor Cal and will move south quickly this afternoon, however, we will get a break this morning into mid-afternoon. Where the first part of the storm has been steady with overall light to moderate rainfall. The second wave will be Interesting, with heavier rain likely at times due to cold air, thunderstorms, and south winds. This will arrive later in the afternoon and last into Thursday Morning. The rain will be heavy at times, the total might not be as great as the first wave. We are likely looking at another ½ of an inch, coastal, and another 1 inch in the hills, higher amounts during thunderstorms.

All in all, this storm will over-perform than originally thought. “ That’s the story of this rainy season”.

Snow levels will drop today and bring snow down to 3000 feet tonight. Expect some snow in the local mountains Thursday morning. The system clears out Thursday afternoon and we are looking for a nice weekend, warming each day.

Saturday and Sunday we will warm into the upper 60s with lots of sunshine, and the second dry weekend in a row.

Next week, when the models are still not in agreement. There will be a weak system moving through early next week, but it is looking to be dry or at least weaker.

The good news is Saturday welcomes April, and we are hoping for spring weather and a warmer, drier month.

Enjoy the rain, it is adding up…   

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Today should be a nice day before more rain arrives tonight. Last night it was a great sunset, it is nice to see later sunsets once again.

Today you can see the spinning low over the Pacific Northwest which will start its move south today  https://zoom.earth/ The only effect this will have today is some high clouds will start to roll in. Rain will start up later tonight from 5 pm to 8 pm ahead of the front.

This will bring rain overnight with light rain only. Rain totals overnight will b around 1/2 inch for most. Wednesday morning the first wave will be through, and there will be some clearing into the afternoon before the stronger, colder part of the storm arrives. This will bring unstable air, and heavier rain at times into Thursday morning. This will bring us some south winds, with the hills in Montecito can see some enhanced rain. Nothing crazy will this system. another 1/2 inch for coastal areas with a total of around 1 inch. mountains and foothills 1 to 2 inches. Nothing crazy, but another wet 36 hours.

Thursday we still can see some showers, but the system will move out by the afternoon. It does not look like the daytime hours Wednesday or Thursday will be a washout. We will see some sun breaks during the day. Most of the construction world will still be able to work both days.

Looking into the weekend we will be cool with a warmup Saturday and dry through at least Sunday. Next week the jury is still out with a few weak systems moving through to the north.

It Is more likely these will stay to the north of the forecast area, but time will tell.

April is near, and hopefully, drier weather will start to prevail.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

Another chilly start to the day with 32 in Santa Ynez, 39 in Camarillo, and 41 in Santa Barbara.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.0698547363281&lat=34.61796626893967

Highs today will vary due to the winds. Camarillo will see the warmest weather with 73 degrees due to the Santa Ana winds. SB 65 and Santa Ynez 68, overall a nice day after the cold this morning.

Tuesday now looks to be dry during the day, before the next cold system arrives Tuesday evening. Right now you can see the low-pressure system spinning in the Pacific Northwest.

https://zoom.earth/ This will drop South Tuesday and bring us more rain, cold temps, and Mountain snow. Snow levels will start off higher Tuesday night at 5000 to 6000 feet then drop on Wednesday to 2500 to 3000 feet by Wednesday night. Rain will start up Tuesday night and last through Wednesday night, and possibly into Thursday morning. We are expecting ½ to 1 inch coastal and 1 to 2 inches in the foothills and mountains. Thursday night the Spring Northwest winds will come up as the system clears out. As we work our way through another week and into the weekend, we will start a slight warm-up and dry weather.

We are looking for an extended period of dry weather. let’s hope that April will bring us dry weather and warming.

Enjoy 2 days of dry, before we get a storm with 1 inch or so of rain.

Have a great week, March is almost over …

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Finally a break from the rain, Amen. Today will not be cloudless but it will be dry. More sun on Friday and no rain until Tuesday.

First, let’s start with rain totals for the year to date.

This chart goes back to march 1st, so you will need to look at the graph and chart it yourself. As of yesterday, 8 am Santa Barbara is at over 33 inches for the year ( this does not include rain from yesterday). With yesterday's rain, we are over 34 inches. Normal rainfall is 18.24 inches. We are almost double for the year we are way over double for the season. I really think it will be hard to beat the record year of 1998, of 46.97 inches.

likely we will get to #2 for this year that goes until October 1st, 2023. Personally, there is no way I want to break a record;” I have had enough of this rain”.
https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Historic%20Data/Rainfall/historical%20graphs/100yr%20Rainfall.pdf 

Here is where we are at as of Wednesday at 8 am: https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

As you can see we are getting really high on the chart. With this last system, we have received 1.5 inches to 5.25 inches of rain in our local area. San Marcos pass is getting close to 30 inches, in the past 30 days https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

Now the forecast for today and into the next week. You can see the North flow and the system moving out of our area. https://zoom.earth/

Today there will be some clouds and even some build-ups over the mountains. There is even a very slight chance for 1/10 of an inch of rain over the hills.

Tonight, north winds take over and we will see 20 to 25-mile-an-hour winds to the north with gusts of 35 miles an hour. We will see how the trees hold up.

Friday winds switch to the Northeast. Temps will only warm slightly, with frost in some valleys Friday night.

The weekend will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Sunny and dry through Monday day.

Monday night into Tuesday the next system shows up. another cold system with .75 inches of rain to 1.5 inches. Also cold with 4000-foot snow levels.

We are hoping this will be the last system for a while, enjoy the dry days for the next 5 days.

ok, that’s my weather for the day, now off to my day Job.

Enjoy the dry weather.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning, 

It seems I always start the weather report with a good morning. Today as I thought about this being the 12th atmospheric river of this season. I almost put otherwise in the heading. 

Today we will see another very colorful map from the national weather service with warnings and watches for all,  and high surf, coastal flooding, and winter storm warnings and watches. We have it All.

https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Last night did everyone get the warning on the TV, cell phone, and radio of a tornado watch in Ventura? Here is a short video from yesterday from Ventura where a tornado did land.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/HWcTAtvm9rhobnUR9  (thanks Peter)

Besides this, I don’t know how many trees tumbled for the day, but I knew of at least three by 10 am. Regarding rain Tuesday the main front went through a little faster than originally thought, so the skies started to clear around 11 am then turned to showers. 

Then crazy rains, thunder showers, and hail in the afternoon, and last night made the afternoon exciting. Rains have resulted in 2 inches in Montecito, 3 inches on the Pass, and 1.5 in most other locations.

This is not over yet. We will still see another 1/2 to 3/4 and possibly more in the mountains today. The low-pressure system fueling all this cold air and activity is still spinning over the Bay Area.

https://zoom.earth/

This is throwing some minimal shower activity over us, but as the day progresses the front will open and move south. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

This will create more rain for all. The more frequent showers look to be in the afternoon before it all moves East tonight.

Snow levels are dropping to 3500 to 4000 today, snow is likely in the higher elevations and the Grapevine today. 

Thursday through Monday looks to be rainless, still some clouds at Times and very cool weather. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with temps 15 degrees below normal.

Thursday night strong north winds will come up and likely topple more trees 🌲 No I don’t own a tree company, but keep those trees trimmed. 

Friday and into the weekend some minimal warming, but at least no rain.

Monday also looks to be dry at this point, but another system will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, the strength does not look as strong as this one, but the way this season has gone it might pick up strength over the next few days. Right now that’s in the future, we need to get through the rains for today.

For Thursday's report, the excitement will be the rain total for the season to date. 

Jack Martin

Here we go again, but today we will see a little of everything with strong south winds, heavy rain followed by cold temps tonight, and lots of snow in the mountains.

The low-pressure system started to bring rain last night and will pick up steam as the day progresses. The parent low is further South than typical, so due to pressure, gradience winds will be strong from the south. https://zoom.earth/

Winds today will be 15 to 30 miles an hour coastal, 30 to 60 in the foothills, and 60 to 75 miles in the mountains. This will lead to numerous trees dropping throughout the area. If you are listening to the news, you know that a tree dropped on the southbound Carrillo st south on the ramp that is now closed.

It is likely many of those fast-growing eucalyptus trees will fall today. The tree trimmer will be quite busy today, along with roofing contractors …..

It seems this has been an endless rainy season, with the heavy rain just starting up now. This will continue until noon then tapper off some. We have seen around ½ to 1 inch so far, but the real rain will fall in the next 6 hours. Coastal we will see 1.5 inches of rain and double that in the mountains. We are expecting 2 to 3 inches coastal, 3 to 6 in the mountains, and possibly more on south-facing mountains.

As far as snow goes snow level will start out at 5000 feet and then drop to 3500 feet tonight. Mountains will see high winds, multiple feet of snow above 5000 feet, and 2 to 10 inches at 3500 feet above tonight. needless to say, being outside in the mountains is not the place to be.

It does look to be a wild day with all the tarps on roofs whipping around. Rain will fall on Wednesday but be more showery on Wednesday.

The bulk of the rain will fall today through noon, afternoon the rain will tapper some.

The good news is after the rain stops on Wednesday; We will see dry weather through Monday. Chilly with only highs in the low 60s. Then Tuesday is another chance of rain. Will this ever stop, well it does not look like the rain will stop in March, The good thing April is right around the corner.

Have a great day in the rain, we will be getting wet on roofs again, please let this stop…soon ….

Here is the radar right now https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

 

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning, 

The National weather service was perfect with Sunday's forecast. Most of the Santa Barbara area received 1/10 of an inch or less. With SLO in the 1/4-inch range. 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

Today the calm before a much stronger storm arrives tonight. You can see the parent low spinning to the north and the subtropical clouds north of the forecast areas. 

https://zoom.earth/#view=31.9,-135,4.72z/map=live

This will allow us to have a dry day here, but as the spinning low drops south, so does the AR (atmospheric river). Rain will start off lighter overnight then the real Action begins on Tuesday morning. The National weather service has now moved up the heavy rain to Tuesday morning now. This system is going to be different from the last but offers the same result with lots of rain heavy at times. The main difference is the good southerly flow and wind. It will become quite a wind from the south starting Tuesday morning with strong winds along with a period of 3 to 6 hours of heavier rain, likely mid-morning.

Rain rates will be .5 to as much as 1 inch per hour. This will result in 1.5 to 3 inches of rain coastal. 2 to 4 inches in the mountains and 5 inches on the south faces of Montecito. Just look at this colorful map, with lots of watches to come https://www.weather.gov/lox/

This is also a colder storm with snow levels varying from 3500 to 6000 feet. Snow levels will start at 4000 feet climb to 6000 Tuesday and drop to 3500 feet on Tuesday night. How much snow? above 6000 feet is looking at 2 to 4 feet of snow. above 5000 10 to 20 inches, and 4000 2 to 10 inches. 

Wednesday we will see lots of showers due to the colder air. This Wednesday will be wet compared to the last Wednesday due to the cold air and showers. 

Thursday, we dry out again. The good news is we are looking at the first dry weekend in the past 6. Don’t get too excited because chatter is about another storm possible early next week. Don’t count the chickens before they are hatched, the 7-day forecast is still a way out. We trust a 7-day forecast as much as a 2-year-old not getting into trouble. We will focus on the current rainy weather which will only boost our season's rain totals getting us closer to the top of the wettest rain season on record. There is no way we will top the 1998 El Niño year, but #2 is still possible and we are likely to double the normal rainfall for the year. 

Enjoy the rain, you don’t have a choice.

Have a good dry day Monday, lots more rain to start tonight.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning, 

Well, the rain is almost over for now. The Santa Barbara area was the target of this storm, with light rain still falling at 4 am. Yes, poor Pearl got wet again this morning. The storm totals were very impressive for our area as the south-facing area had the greatest rainfall. In Santa Barbara and Montecito, almost 4 inches of rain fell. The Pass had around 6 inches 

Looking to the north and south the numbers dropped quite a bit to around 1.5 inches. It is quite the contrast from us. This was thanks to the south flow and our lovely mountains.

Here are the results:  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA We just had another day of 24 hours of steady rain. Please let this STOP. 

Now we are off to hump day, the good news is the rain is almost out of the picture as the last of the showers roll through this morning. Thank goodness we will see a break and sunshine. https://zoom.earth/#view=28.7,-112.7,4z/date=2023-03-15,03:00,-7/map=live

It looks like Thursday and Friday will be dry, but another weak system for the weekend, yes I think this will be 4 weekends in a row. This system is much weaker, and could actually miss us, but the models really can not make up their minds at this point. Rain in SLO for sure, then we will see how far south this goes. 

Looking into early next week, Monday will be dry. Then Tuesday another storm and another atmospheric river. This will bring us another round of moderate to heavy rain, of which I don’t want.

We will see the predicted rain totals as they start to come into the picture over the next few days. 

In the meantime enjoy cooler temps, sunshine, and dry weather for at least a few days.  

Tomorrow, I will give you the season's rain total for the year as we continue to climb toward one of the top 5 wettest years recorded. 

Smile, the 🌞 is near us for a few days. 

Jack Martin