Jack's Weather Report

Good Tuesday morning,

It was an interesting weekend, which lasted into Monday with tropical weather.

Now it is back to normal. It was crazy for some locations with rain totals that were incredible from San Diego to Ventura. Just look at these numbers for any, and especially in August!
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMLOS

Now compare it to just west in Santa Barbara area. We received 1/3 of an inch. The big winner in SB county was Figueroa mountain with 2.10, and in contrast Santa Ynez barely got a trace. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

It was incredible to see the difference in the rain totals that was in the pathway, verses just outside.

There were lots of pretty rainbows in the area. Thanks for all that sent photos.

Now we will get back to work and what’s in the forecast moving forward.

The overall pattern shifts to non eventful. Which means typical weather pattern for summer in California. Normal low clouds and fog along the coast and highs in the mid 70s to sunny and warming in the valleys with highs in the upper 80s. Just calm summer weather. Not too hot and not rainy for the rest of the week.

Enjoy the back to normal, and have a great week

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

The first word I can think of for today is impressive. Just look at these rain totals for the LA area. They received anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain yesterday https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMLOS. In contrast here in Santa Barbara we had only a light tropical rain adding up to .25 to .50 of an inch in total.

Ventura -Oxnard and Ventura County meet in the middle with 1 to 3 inches of rain for the storm. Santa Ynez got basically nothing.

It does amaze me to watch the flow of this tropical system and how the path of rain traveled in a narrow ban. https://zoom.earth/ Hilary is now on her way out of the area.

We will still see some light showers this morning through late morning, but the rain is pretty much over. It was a fun fire drill for us here in SB, but no fire drill in the LA and Palm Springs area.

This morning, it still feels tropical out there, but the system is now to the north. We will return to more normal weather.

Tuesday may be some low fog from the wet ground. Temps will get back to normal with the 70s along the coast and 80s in the valleys as everyone will warm up as the week goes on.

California made its part for national news coverage yesterday as we had a tropical storm and an earthquake in Ojai at 5.1. Did you feel it? I did it was a little rumble upward, but not much.

There is still a little rain out there, but mainly to the south https://radar.weather.gov/station/kvtx/standard

Now the National news shifts to the East Coast as the tropical storms are ramping up in the Caribbean, just look at all those storms out there. I would not want to be on a cruise ship this week in the Caribbean https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/   and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2  To the west still action to the south, but not affecting our weather anytime soon.

I want to give a shout-out to all my employees that worked on the weekend helping us prepare for the pending storm, they rocked!

Enjoy the week, it is back to normal summer weather.

Sunset rain and sunshine from my backyard last night were “Very Tropical”

-Jack Martin 

Good Friday morning,

As the weekend approaches, so does the storm system to the south named Hillary. 

She is currently spinning at hurricane status west of Cabo San Lucas and will work our way up towards Southern California for the weekend.

We will begin to feel the effects of the humidity sometime on Saturday then with rain chances starting Saturday night in LA and moving into our area most likely Sunday afternoon through Monday.

It does still look like the greatest chance of rain is going to be from Sunday afternoon through Monday for the Santa Barbara area. Depending on how this tracks, the greatest rains likely going to be in LA and Ventura mountains. However, if the system will track a little bit more west, Santa Barbra get hit harder.

Regardless, everyone will see rain thundershowers from the system. How much is still in question, but in the range of 1 inch is likely at this point there’s a flash flood warning for areas south of us for their local mountains because of thunder showers. 

Any way you look at it, this is quite unusual for a tropical storm to impact us this hard along the coast. Although, this has been one of those years. Didn’t think I’d be preparing for rain in August.

Below is the local forecast. You can see the icons with thunderstorms and the percentages, so you’ll be able to get an idea of what is to come.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=193&y=120&site=lox&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=193&map_y=120

Looks like some marine layer to start the day. Then the marine layer will start to go away as the warmer air gets closer. Humidity increases it gets somebody out there. It will feel tropical.

Here is a cool graphic to see the winds and system spinning https://earth.nullschool.net/

Have a great day. Looks like we have two days before the rain arrives.

Stay tuned!

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning, I think !!!! 

I woke up very early this morning thinking about what is to come. 

Waiting for the normal 3:35 am forecast discussions update that did not arrive until almost 5am. 

I was not sleeping in, but there is so much to talk about what is coming. The top forecasters at the national weather service took longer to send their updates. 

The bottom line here is Zoom Earth shows you what’s happening or more so what is going to happen 
https://zoom.earth/storms/hilary-2023/

Short-term, who really cares? It is all about what’s coming starting Sunday.

Hilary is now a hurricane and looks to strengthen over the next 24 hours. 

This is well to the south, but moving north quickly. High surf, heavy rain, winds, thunderstorms, flash floods. All crazy stuff like that MIGHT affect us Sunday through Tuesday. 

The bottom line, all models are pointing towards a 100% rain chance starting Sunday.

Rain can be heavy if the track stays the same, we are looking at 1 to 2 inches between Sunday and Tuesday. 

Coastal flooding, and winds 20 to 35 miles an hour. 

This system is going to move north as we get into the weekend and looks to hug the coast. Where it turns in is still in question, but right now point conception looks like a bullseye Monday. We will be watching this through the rest of the week and weekend because we typically do not see systems like this affect us. The last one that really hit us like this was the 1970s. I will be watching this closely, but winds, heavy rain, and surf is going to make it very interesting. 

Lots more to come. You have been warned. 

Get ready for a system that comes every 50 years.

Enjoy the fog, it is 800 feet thick, nice, and cool to start at 59 degrees. Humidity arrives Saturday, and rain Sunday and Monday. 

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Another week flying by.

Today will be the last really hot day for the interior and valleys.

Highs in woodland hill and those valleys will be over 100 with 108 possible.

In contrast it is foggy along the coast with highs in the low 80s.
Starting out a nice 57 degrees, love that cold Pacific Ocean. Actually the sea temp was 68 degrees yesterday, which is extremely warm for our area.

Some subtropical moisture is drifting up from the south, this is affecting only LA and southern deserts. 20% chance for today
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.9,-116.9,5.94z

Thursday and Friday, the south flow is blocked and cooling in the interiors is expected.

Not much excitement through Saturday.

Then it becomes interesting 🤔, All eyes turn to Hilary which will become a tropical storm today. This is well south of the area near Acapulco now, but will move north into the Baja for the weekend. This will allow the monsoonal south flow to reestablish and bring rain threat to California Sunday into Tuesday. It is even possible we could see heavy rain with this.

Now as always tropical systems to the south are very hard to forecast, we really need to watch as we get closer to the weekend.

Sunday I think if there is any rain, it will be to the south of out forecast area.

Monday and Monday night will bring the best chance for us. Possible heavy. I will be watching this closely as we get towards the start of the work week.

In the mean time, stay tuned.

Enjoy the rest of the work week. More to follow!

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

A warm up the rest of the work week is on tap. Expect warmer temps through Thursday, before high pressure moves east. Each day temps will climb a few degrees especially in the valleys and interior. Coastal we still have fog and this will keep the temps down into the low 80s.

Expect 90s to 100 in the valleys and hot 🥵 in the interior like Bakersfield.

For the weekend good news, as it cools off some
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite-hd/#view=25.5,-129.1,3.92z/date=2023-08-01,am

Next week, another tropical system Hilary might brush the coast of California. We will need to watch this, but early forecast shows 40% chance for rain Monday.

Way too early to call at this point, but be aware.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

It is straight up mid august, with typical hot monsoonal moisture out there.

If you look over the Bay Area you can see the monsoonal moisture moving east to west.

We don’t typically see this, but it looks like areas in Nor Cal will see some rain.

For us, nothing from this, only warmer weather this week through Wednesday
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=8,-115.7,4.21z/date=2023-08-13,23:30,-7

Look down into the Mexican waters. The tropical action is getting interesting, as a series of disturbances will be setting up for tropical storms over the next 10 day. Where these will drift is really not clear at this point, but if you are in the southwest monsoonal rains this time of year is reality.

It is interesting, because there has not been much Action on the East coast and Caribbean to date. I am sure this will happen in the next month or so.

Coming back west, this week will be non eventful for southern California coastal areas. Interiors will be hot, but coastal areas will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s. Valleys 90s and interior 100 +.

As we approach the weekend the models are not in agreement. They can not decide if some monsoonal moisture could affect LA or Ventura, but that to far out to care.

We will watch it for now, and have more to say the second half of the week.

In the mean time enjoy the mid summer weather. We are the lucky ones on the coast with the Pacific Ocean keeping temps manageable. A/C is not needed along the coast, nice lower 60s at night and 80 by day. A fan and an open door is your friend over night.

Have a great week and more to come,

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

It is straight up mid august, with typical hot monsoonal moisture out there.

If you look over the Bay Area you can see the monsoonal moisture moving east to west.

We don’t typically see this, but it looks like areas in Nor Cal will see some rain.

For us, nothing from this, only warmer weather this week through Wednesday
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=8,-115.7,4.21z/date=2023-08-13,23:30,-7

Look down into the Mexican waters. The tropical action is getting interesting, as a series of disturbances will be setting up for tropical storms over the next 10 day. Where these will drift is really not clear at this point, but if you are in the southwest monsoonal rains this time of year is reality.

It is interesting, because there has not been much Action on the East coast and Caribbean to date. I am sure this will happen in the next month or so.

Coming back west, this week will be non eventful for southern California coastal areas. Interiors will be hot, but coastal areas will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s. Valleys 90s and interior 100 +.

As we approach the weekend the models are not in agreement. They can not decide if some monsoonal moisture could affect LA or Ventura, but that to far out to care.

We will watch it for now, and have more to say the second half of the week.

In the mean time enjoy the mid summer weather. We are the lucky ones on the coast with the Pacific Ocean keeping temps manageable. A/C is not needed along the coast, nice lower 60s at night and 80 by day. A fan and an open door is your friend over night.

Have a great week and more to come,

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

It is straight up mid august, with typical hot monsoonal moisture out there.

If you look over the Bay Area you can see the monsoonal moisture moving east to west.

We don’t typically see this, but it looks like areas in Nor Cal will see some rain.

For us, nothing from this, only warmer weather this week through Wednesday
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=8,-115.7,4.21z/date=2023-08-13,23:30,-7

Look down into the Mexican waters. The tropical action is getting interesting, as a series of disturbances will be setting up for tropical storms over the next 10 day. Where these will drift is really not clear at this point, but if you are in the southwest monsoonal rains this time of year is reality.

It is interesting, because there has not been much Action on the East coast and Caribbean to date. I am sure this will happen in the next month or so.

Coming back west, this week will be non eventful for southern California coastal areas. Interiors will be hot, but coastal areas will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s. Valleys 90s and interior 100 +.

As we approach the weekend the models are not in agreement. They can not decide if some monsoonal moisture could affect LA or Ventura, but that to far out to care.

We will watch it for now, and have more to say the second half of the week.

In the mean time enjoy the mid summer weather. We are the lucky ones on the coast with the Pacific Ocean keeping temps manageable. A/C is not needed along the coast, nice lower 60s at night and 80 by day. A fan and an open door is your friend over night.

Have a great week and more to come,

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

I hope everyone is having a great weekend.

I thought I would start off the forecast with ocean temps. As typical as we get into the next few months ocean temps are on the rise in SB. It looks like we will see 67 degrees locally this week, with one stating 69 degrees.

To our south, lots of tropical action with plenty of disturbances moving to the west toward Hawaii. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/
These really are not affecting our weather.

This all segways into our upcoming El Niño season. As we get into fall the El Niño for this coming season strengthens and the odds of a very wet winter increases. With our lakes and reservoirs remaining almost full, it will not take much this year to put them over the top.
We still have 2 1/2 months before we typically see out first rain event, around Halloween. El Niño really starts to affect us in January and February, still 5 months away.

El Niño typically spells a very wet winter, so get prepared. Here is more casual reading for your Sunday
https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/climate/news/2023-07-13-el-nino-july-forecast-update-winter-noaa

For the upcoming week, not much excitement in the forecast. Cooler fog along the coast. Fog this morning is at 900 feet.

Temps will be mid 70s coastal to mid to upper 80s in the valleys.
As the work week arrives so does warmer temps especially in the valleys where the Mercury will climb into the upper 90s. Coastal a nice 80.
Lastly, since it is Sunday. Look to the skies tonight as meteor showers are most prevalent in the skies.

Have a great Sunday
Jack Martin