Jack's Weather Report

A quick update from last night. 

Today all the wind is to the south as a Santa Ana event is beginning today. 

Winds have been slow to start, but they will build as the day goes on. It looks like Montecito will be spared from this event, only Ventura and the south. 

In SB just a cool start to the day with really no wind, it will warm to about 64 degrees.

Friday will be a great day for all this no wind south and warmer temps. It will be as good as it gets for this time of year.

Saturday a reversal of offshore to onshore winds.  And a much cooler day. 

Sunday looks to be ok, but clouds will increase as the day goes on.

Sunday night the rain chances begin, but in Santa Barbara, it looks more like Monday morning is the best chance for rain. Rain will be light with no more than 1/2 inch in total. Most areas will see less.

Tuesday we are back to sunshine and dry weather for at least a few days.

Have a great day, for me, every day that passes is getting a little better.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

This week is all about the wind. Last night the winds in the Montecito hills blew to 90 miles an hour. Everywhere else also felt the winds but more moderate Level from the northeast. We will still feel some wind this morning, but they will be less and the brunt of the winds are now in Ventura and LA. Their world will rock today.

After the winds pass today we are left with sunny skies with only a few high clouds 
https://zoom.earth/maps/daily/#view=30.4,-128.8,4.06z/date=2023-01-23,pm

Tonight it will be chilly but no wind. Valleys will see freezing temps and a lot of frosts on roofs Tuesday morning. Highs during the day will just be in the 60s.

Wednesday same as Tuesday but a few degrees of warming.

Thursday another wind event from the northeast, and the Montecito hills will rock again.

Friday we warm up through Saturday, with little to no wind.

Sunday the jury is still out with models differing. We will see how that plays out as the week progresses. One model is calling for some rain the other for some more wind.

We will see how it plays out.

Enjoy your day!

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning, 

Dry weather is the forecast for the week, but the wind will be an issue in Montecito this afternoon and tonight. Expect 30 to 40 miles an hour northeast winds with gusts to 55 miles an hour. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.60242509841919&lat=34.46071114125401#.Y81Rli-IafA

Later tonight winds move into the LA mountains with 70 to 80 miles an-hour gusts.

The good news is high pressure has built-in and we will see a ridge keeping all weather to the north.  https://zoom.earth/maps/daily/#view=42.2,-107.3,4z/date=2023-01-21,pm

Dry cooler conditions for all with freezing temps Monday night in the valleys and 40s in Santa Barbara. Highs will be in the 60s and climb to the mid to upper 60s as the week goes on. Next weekend the models are not in agreement but it looks like dry weather through Saturday. Then a chance of rain may come back, but it is way to early to call for rain.

Look at all the lake levels at 96%. Rainfall to date is 255% of normal to date. Total rain is now 112% of total rainfall for the year with still 8 months left in our season. Lake Naciemento at almost 88% https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=22189 this is all great news for water supplies and summer fun on the water.

Have a great Sunday, we will talk soon, maybe not every day because the weather is pretty stable this week.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Sorry about not reporting Wednesday morning, circumstances kept me from writing one.

Today we are looking at a very slight chance of rain likely 1/10 of an inch or less.

This system will only brush us and I do not think it will make it over the mountains. A little rain in Santa Ynez late morning. SLO earlier this morning. If the rain makes it to Santa Barbara it will not be until this afternoon.  

https://zoom.earth/maps/daily/#view=35.2,-105.9,4z/date=2023-01-18,pm

Friday we are looking at a weak Santa Ana event, this will be cold with light winds.

Some freezing temps Friday night in the valleys. 

Saturday and beyond not a lot of excitement. A few systems will brush the area but no rain is in the forecast just some wind at times, with cooler weather. 

Enjoy the first weekend with no rain since Christmas!

Jack Martin

Amen,

It looks like mostly dry weather for the next 2 weeks. That is music to my ears.

Let’s start with the results of all this rain we have had over the past 4 weeks. Nacimiento is at 87% , Cachuma 90%. Rainfall for the year to date is 275% of normal.

San Marcos pass 48.26 inches for the year to date, 30.71 inches this month alone. Rainfall for the year countywide 111% which goes through October of 2023.

Just crazy numbers!

https://nrwmac.org/lake-levels/ , https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

What’s to come for the rest of this week, we all felt the winds blow hard last night. The skies are going to be so clear today. High-definition views

Today, a chilly start with some wind at 40 degrees in Santa Barbara and 39 degrees in Santa Ynez. It will be a chilly day with highs only in the 50s. Otherwise a nice sunny day.

Wednesday will be a great cooler day, sunny but chilly. Wednesday night an inside slider comes down the coast bringing a chance for rain.

This is moisture-starved, but there is still a 30% chance for ¼ of an inch or less of rain. Mainly over the mountains.

Thursday the chance of rain continues, but this will not be much of a storm, If any.

Friday, is sunny and clear after the winds of the inside slider. Still temps below normal, but warming each day.

Saturday, A Santa Ana event is back, with offshore winds. It will be warming into the low 60s, but not beach weather.

Sunday is more of the same.

Monday into next week, models can’t decide yet, but it will be dry. There will be an inside slider or high-pressure building.

It does look like we will have an extended period of dry weather allowing all our yards to dry out. They are like a sponge right now; you just sink as you walk on them.

As the sun returns just watch those mountains turn green, it is going to be a perfect photo opportunity.

Enjoy the dryer weather, but remember still something Wednesday night into Thursday.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

The end of our rainy historical 4-week period is almost over, Just look at these results from lake Cachuma. There are tons of logs everywhere near the dam, but it is 89% full right now.

I don’t think anyone is fishing in that mucky water, but it is a beautiful site. It has been 12 years since it was full. That was a long time ago.

The storm yesterday rolled in a little faster than thought originally but has been a calm storm with only minimal rain. Results to this point are 1/2 to 2 inches.

Here are the rain totals for the past 48 hours, with another great result.

The Pass is over 4 inches, Montecito 3 inches.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

Today the core of the Low is in the bay area, with them getting Hammered again. This will move south and give some heavier showers later in the day. mainly in SLO

It has been an incredible run for all of California in the past 4 weeks https://zoom.earth/#view=35.22,-118.95,6z/map=live

We will see showers today, with some on-and-off rain. However, the 4-week rain event is at the end with sunny skies starting Tuesday morning.

Rain today will be light with showers into the evening.

Tonight the snow levels drop to 3500 feet and rain comes to an end.

Overnight we will get some North winds and cool temps.

Tuesday sunny skies and cooler. Temps all weeks will remain below normal but begin to warm.

Wednesday is an inside slider, which means some winds and a chance of north showers. We will remain dry.

Friday high pressure and offshore winds will make for the first sunny and dry weekend since Christmas, almost a month in normally sunny California.

As of yesterday look at these rain totals for the year. 273% of normal and 109% of rainfall county-wide and it is still mid-January https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport

Mike what is the wettest season in history, and how close are we? I will assume this has been the wettest first half of January.

One more day of wet, then we get to enjoy the sunshine again.

I know every parent of small kids will be celebrating the dry weather so they can get some of that energy out of their systems outdoors.

It was amazing to see how many people were walking in the rain yesterday.

Jack Martin

Wow, 

January 15th, 2023, and we are already at around 120% of average rainfall for the year, yes, I said the year. The more amazing part Is February is normally our wettest month and January is only half over. I have not counted the number of inches of rain that we have received in the first half of January, but I am willing to bet the farm it is an all-time record. 

Yesterday another 2 to 3 inches of rain fell for all. It was dumping once again, but at least only a 6-hour period. I remember the days when a 1-to-2-inch rain was a big deal, but not this year. It is a mild event. We must weather one more system tonight and Monday morning then we all get a break from the rain. 

I remember way back in the day when I moved to California in the early 80s and people told me they traveled to the Pacific Northwest to see rain. Well, that’s not the case this year, it came to us. I don’t know about you, but I am sick of it, and I need a break.

Today we will have a cloudy day with some sun peaks, don’t forget your sweatshirt because highs will only be in the 50s. A few showers on north-facing mountains, but dry for us. The next system is hot on the heels of yesterday's. As a matter of fact, it is moving in quicker than thought. It looks like rain will start up in SLO later this afternoon and arrive here in SB tonight.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/getlocal.php?prod=LAXRRMSBA

This is a colder system with less rain. Snow levels will still be high at 5500 feet till Monday night. Then lower to 3500 to 4000 feet. The storm system will have passed by us before the level really drop.

Tonight rain starts up. Look for another 1-inch coastal and 1 to 2 inches in the mountains. As of late south-facing mountains like Montecito and Santa Barbara will see the most rain. Showers Monday with rain ending Monday afternoon.

Tuesday, amen we start a dry period with no rain for a week or so. This is great news because we all need a break. It will be quite cold however with temps remaining below normal for the week. We will creep up the Mercury a few degrees each day, but Tuesday will be quite cold with only low 50s for highs. Tuesday night is chilly with frost in lots of areas. We will not detail day by day next week at this point because I have typed too much of late.

We will call it dry, chilly, but rain free. More to come later.

Lake Cachuma is at 86.5 % still, because they have been releasing water since Saturday. When they do stop it will fill, but not until we are in the clear of rain. It has been 12 years since Cachuma has topped, and in 2023 the lake filled from its lowest level at 30% 

That’s just amazing, enjoy your somewhat dry Sunday. More rain tonight.

Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

Not a lot of changes to our weather from the pattern we have been in in the past 4 weeks. I thought I would start the forecast today with an interesting fact.

As most of us are aware Santa Barbara has flooded this week, and it was pretty much through the lowest areas in Santa Barbara from the ocean and up Salsipuedes.

Do you know the Spanish meaning of this name in English?  It is “Leave if you can”

translated from Spanish as "leave if you can." Salsipuedes: Name was given to a marginal neighborhood, located on the outskirts of the municipality of Soledad, Department of Atlántico, Colombia. Do you know any other Meaning of salsipuedes?

www.wordmeaning.org/spanish/salsipuedes.htm

SALSIPUEDES - Spanish open dictionary

If you draw a line from the ocean up Salsipuedes that’s where all the flooding was this week.

Back to the weather today and for the next 3 days, it is all about on and off rain. With 2 systems that will roll through us and give good rain totals.

The good news is the rain will be moderate, but not crazy like we saw Monday. The best part of the rains is most lakes and reservoirs will top this weekend.

The rain right now is off to the north in the bay area https://zoom.earth/ the core of the low will drop south during the day today and rain will start up again.

Rain in SLO this morning and dropping into Santa Barbara late morning. Rain rates will be ½ per hour later in the day. (this is half of what Monday's storm was)

Rain totals today will be .75 to 1.5 inches coastal and 1.5 to 3 inches in the mountains. The rain tonight will end overnight, and we will be mostly dry on Sunday.

Sunday night the next storm rolls in. This is much colder and some local mountains in Santa Ynez will see snow.

Rain totals with Monday’s system will be lighter with another .5 to .75 inch coastal and .75 to 1.5 in the mountains.

The rain right now is moving into Paseo robles https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

Now the good news, it now looks like we see light at the end of the tunnel. Starting Tuesday and through the rest of the week we will see dry weather.

An inside slider Thursday, with just some wind, then Friday high pressure, and offshore winds Friday then a dry weekend. The first dry weekend since Christmas.

I might even get a day off after doing 30-plus days in a row. This will be a real treat for all. I don’t know about you, but I need a break from all this rain.

It is a Mission accomplished if we filled all the reservoirs and lakes.

For fun when do you think Lake Cachuma will top? it is at 87.4% right now. My guess is 2 am on Sunday.

Enjoy the last wet weekend, bring back the sun please.

Jack Martin

Happy Friday the 13th,

Did you know that Friday the 13th comes an average of every 212 days?

Did you know the myth of Friday the 13th goes back centuries https://www.cnn.com/style/article/why-friday-13-unlucky-explained/index.html

Now enough for trivia here is the forecast …

Today is transition day, rain will start to return later today. It does look like everyone will stay dry most of the day but light rain will fall late this afternoon into tonight ¼ of an inch.

Rain tonight will taper off and then Saturday we will see the second stronger impulse come in. It might even stay dry in the morning Saturday and then pick up as the day goes on.

Rain Saturday night into Sunday morning then a brief break. Rain rates will be ½ inch per hour, but it will move through much faster with 3 to 6 hours of rain.

Totals will be 1 to 1.5 coastal and around 3 inches in the mountains. This will not be like Monday’s system; it is a quick hitter.

Sunday will be dry most of the day, but chilly. Highs of only 60 degrees, Sunday night the next system comes in. This is a much colder system with lower snow levels.

Monday rain most of the day with snow levels around 3500 to 4500 feet. This will bring another inch of rain for most, and a bit higher in the hills.

Tuesday looks to be a fair day as the system exists, then we are looking at a dry period starting Wednesday, hopefully for an extended period

Some interesting facts about lakes in the Santa Barbara area

Lake Cachuma is currently at 86.2%.  It will spill with the rains from the upcoming event.

Monday’s storm broke some incredible records. It was very impressive.

San Marcos Pass, 24hr Rainfall = 13.24 (previous record = 10.55 (WY2005) – also record rainfall for 6hr, 8hr, and 12hr periods.

Gibraltar Dam, 24hr Rainfall = 11.15 (previous record = 10.90 (WY2011)

The USGS Santa Ynez River gauge site measuring the main inflow to Cachuma (~50k cfs, @Los Laureles), has reported only two higher river flows in the 75-year history of the gauge site, Water-Years 1969 (~67k cfs) and 1998 (~56k cfs).

Reservoir capacities preceding the 1969 and 1998 peak inflows were at relatively high levels of 76% and 89%, respectively, versus the much lower ~36% capacity this year – resulting in a more significant reservoir volume increase..

Peak Cachuma Reservoir level rise was approximately 2ft per hour.

Happy Friday the 13th enjoy the fun day, no strikes today Maybe Monday.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Today will be the warmest and driest day in the next 7, but not a chamber of commerce day. The only reason this will be the best day is that wet weather is returning through Tuesday of next week with 2 more storms affecting us.

This will top all lakes and reservoirs from all counties around us. Cachuma 84.2%, Nacimiento 73% with all climbing. https://nrwmac.org/lake-levels/  Just look at this graphic. Countywide we have received 102% of annual rainfall and it is just early January. and 270% of normal rainfall for the year to date, yes doing math that is almost 3 times normal rainfall. This does not even include the next 2 upcoming storms.

https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf      …… just crazy numbers………

So what’s happening today and the rest of the week?

Today we have a weak ridge that has pushed the storm track to the North, we will still see some high clouds and no rain. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Friday the storm track begins to shift towards us again. It looks like a dry Friday, but Friday night and Saturday the rain is back. We are looking at 1 to 1.5 inches coastal and 3 inches in the mountains. We will see heavy rain, but not as hard as Monday for 3 to 6 hours ½ inch per hour. This system even has a lot of lightning with it, so it needs to be watched.

Sunday, we get a short break between the 2 storms with only some very light showers. Sunday night the next system rolls towards us. This is a cold system and snow levels will be much lower. This will likely give the Santa Ynez mountains some white caps, it will be a pretty view.

Tuesday will be cold, but the rain should be gone. Wednesday they are talking about a ridge building ….. this means the tap will be turned off and we will get back to some dry weather for a change. It has been an amazing (no historical) 4 weeks of rain. We will remember this year for a long time.

Let’s get ready for more rain and all lakes to top…. enjoy the ride, you can't stop it…

Jack Martin