Jack's Weather Report

Good Thursday morning,

Today you all have graduated from weather school 1.0. We will now call the Atmospheric river AR ( this is way easier for Jack to type)

It is a chilly start to the day with Santa Ynez at 37 degrees, SB at 44 degrees, and Ventura at 47 degrees. Highs today will low 60s.

Just look at zoom earth, the satellite is setting us up for the next storm and the atmospheric river that comes with it.

Look at that strong low-pressure system spinning over Oregon and pulling the AR up into the pathway, aimed at the central coast. https://zoom.earth/#view=37.7,-122.1,4z/map=live

The event will start later in the day over the central coast then as always move south.

Today we will see dry during the day, then rain chances increase for us to 30% after 4 pm. The rain will start out on the lighter side this evening, then pick up as we go overnight.

Rain will start up in Ventura tonight, then in LA around midnight.

Friday we will have Game On,  as this will be the day that the AR mixes with the low and create the heavy rain. The central coast will be hit the hardest, as the AR is aimed right at SLO and Monterey counties. Rain totals in those locations are likely to be 5 to 8 inches. As the AR drops south Santa Barbara county is set up for a good rain also with 2 to 4 inches.

Rain will be heavy all day Friday then the AR will begin to break up Friday night.

Saturday is partly cloudy with light showers possible. Sunday dries, with the storm track switching to the north. The storm track should stay to the North through Monday when the next system drops over us. Confidence in how much more rain is still not clear, but 1 to 3 inches is predicted Tuesday into Wednesday.

The snow levels will be high for Friday’s system at 9000 to 10,000 feet. Snow melt and flooding is possible. Tuesday’s system the snow level drops to 7000 feet, still pretty warm.

Friday will be the day with the heaviest rain for all with 2 to 4 inches and rain rates of ½ inch to 1 inch per hour. Some flooding is possible, as the ground is still saturated.

Enjoy the dry Thursday then look out for a crazy Friday!

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

The calm before the storm, Today we will see dry weather with cooler temps. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. This is about 8 to 12 degrees below normal.

Did you know this has been the coldest winter in 50 years?

Thursday will be relatively dry with the rain chances not showing up here until Thursday night. Here is how it looks from the sky. https://zoom.earth/

On Thursday morning you will really start to see the development of this system. It will be crazy when the atmospheric river affects the areas.

This will be more to the north than to the south. Areas Morro Bay and north with see 4 to 8 inches of rain “yes that’s what the weather service is saying, coastal and foothills.”

Rain In SB will start up Thursday night lighter to moderate to start. Friday will be a washout in the words of the National weather service. Rain will be heavy in all locations point conception and to the north. Expect 2 to 4 inches in the Santa Barbara area, and possibly more in Santa Ynez. The AR river will move through Friday evening and then turn to showers.

It looks like a little rain Saturday, but the event will be over through Monday.

Tuesday the next system, models agree this will bring more rain and likely another 1 to 2 inches.

Wow, are we getting tired of the rain “ I am” . If you do believe the extended forecast, then we will see dry weather after the second system goes through.

Batten down the hatches once again, some flooding is possible. The snow level will be 10,000 feet, but the good news is the least rain will fall in the snow areas.

LA will see the least rain from the next system with ½ to 1 ½ inches.  Enjoy the fun or whatever we call it …..

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

We will have another extremely interesting weather pattern late this week, however, for the short term we will see dry weather with maybe some marine layer Wednesday.

The short-term forecast is easy https://zoom.earth/ dry conditions for the next 3 days. Each day will warm slightly into Thursday day, with highs in the low to mid-60s.

Then the real excitement begins Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure to the north will work its way south and rain will start up.

It also looks like the rain will hook into the atmospheric river in the Pacific. Right now this is aimed at Northern California, and this will be a very warm system with snow levels at 10,000 feet.

This is not good, because the melting snow combined with heavy rain will create flooding in NorCal and the central valley. This system is looking to drop a lot of rain. 2 to 7 inches in NorCal.

How will this system affect us? SLO will see lots of rain, if you want Nacimiento and San Antonio lake to be at 100%, this storm is for you. Here in Santa Barbara county, we are also looking at good rain of 2 to 4 inches. This will fall Friday early morning into Saturday. The AR (atmospheric river ) has a narrow ban so LA will only see ½ to 1 inch.

It looks like we will see clearing Saturday afternoon through Monday. Then long-range models are calling for another strong system on Tuesday.

My goodness, this has just been a crazy season that just does not want to end.  If you believe the 30-day forecast we will start to see sunny weather and even 70s the rest of March with rain on April 2nd, Just before Dina’s Birthday https://www.30dayweather.com/en/d/united-states/california/santa-barbara/

Enjoy the dry weather for the next 3 days, then look out for Friday, it will get very interesting.

Stay tuned 😊

One last item that I want to bring up to anyone that thinks they are interested in adding solar to their homes or businesses.

On April 14th SCE and PGE will change to NEM3 ( Net metering ) what this means is we are currently in NEM2 until April 13th. You must file an application to qualify for NEM2 before April 13th and really you need to do this in the next 10 days, or you will miss out. NEM 3 WILL REDUCE BY 75% WHAT THE ELECTRIC COMPANY PAYS YOU FOR PRODUCING ELECTRICITY FROM SOLAR.

If you submit your application before April 13th you will get the NEM 2 rates and be grandfathered into NEM rates for 20 years. Also, the good news is you have 3 years to complete your solar system. If you are thinking of solar you better jump on this right now. Think of this as a 75% off sale which will end in early April. If you are interested email me and we will fill you in.

Your time is very limited because the application takes time, and you must have the paperwork done by the middle of March, and we are very busy on the solar side.

Just in case you did not know, one of my other companies is Action Energy.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

Weather will calm this week with Mainly chilly temps, it is going to be another interesting week.

Today that low-pressure system that brought us rain Saturday night and Sunday morning is moving east with showers as far south as Santa Ynez. https://zoom.earth/ The rain total from our system over the weekend was 1/4 inch locally. The winner was lake Cachuma with .55 of an inch.

Today we get a break likely through Thursday. We will see dry cool weather in Santa Barbara with highs today in the upper 50s then warming through Thursday to the low 60s.

Now it brings us to Friday and into the weekend, sadly it looks like more rain will arrive Friday. The models are even talking about a chance that the next system could hook into an atmospheric river.

Now don't get your blood pressure up yet, this is just the long-range models so we will need to watch this. It does look like more rain; The worst part of this next storm is the snow level will rise to 8000 feet.

If heavy rain comes this will melt snow and create flooding below the snow locations. We will see how this all plays out later in the week.

Hopefully, the rain will be lighter " I am tired of the rain."

and I never thought I would say that.

On the lighter side

This morning that a look to the west and look at the Moonset. (attached photos)

Also Pat sent some great photos from Truckee with all the snow yesterday, it is just crazy how much they received this weekend.   (attached Photos)

(thanks Pat!!)

Enjoy the dry cool weather this week, and as always stay tuned for updates for the end of the week.

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

I hope everyone got a good night’s sleep. I slept in till after 6 am today. Look out there as I fed Pearl this morning the deck is wet.

Most locations last night saw a little rain 1/10 or less, Cachuma was the big winner at .43 of an inch overnight.

Today light showers today and cool weather as a weak system moves through. the snow level is at 2500 to 3000 feet with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible in higher elevations.

We will not see much more rain today, as mentioned yesterday we are expecting a total of ¼ of an inch. Just light rain and drizzle is expected. https://zoom.earth/

The good news, one week from today we turn the clocks ahead and we will see one more hour of daylight in the evenings. Hopefully, that means Spring is near.

Monday through likely Friday we are looking at dry weather and a warmup to a whopping 60 degrees, but at least it will be dry.

The jury is still out on next weekend, as one long-range model calls for cool and wet, and the other says dry. They will figure it out.

I am ready for a dry weekend it has been 3 weeks now with rain.

Enjoy the damp Sunday, just cool and damp, with not a lot of rain highs today at 55 degrees, and lows at 42 degrees in Santa Barbara, 53 in Santa Ynez. and 36 tonight (chilly )

We will be back with good news on Monday with sunshine in the forecast.

It was a pretty Saturday with clouds and a little bit of sun. ( attached photo from my house )

Sorry for the late forecast, yes, I slept in 😊

Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,
The sunny skies of the last few days will change to cloudy, and the marine layer moving in today. https://zoom.earth/

Looking out there you can see the clouds moving in as a weak cold front will affect us for the next 2 days.

Today is interesting to start the day, because Santa Barbara is 44 degrees to start the day, and Santa Ynez is 48 degrees. That is not typical.

Highs today will only increase slightly to 54 degrees. It will be a cool day with not much sunshine.

Tonight the rain chance starts to increase, then on Sunday the same. This is not a big storm, only 1/10th to ¼ of an inch.

The snow level will drop to 3000 feet with traces of snow in the hills and the grapevine with 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Next week we are looking at better weather through Thursday. Dry and warmer each day.

Friday is still not clear, and the models still don’t agree, but models are faring dryer.

Lastly, The weather we had earlier in the week has reached the East coast and is making the national news today. Snow is everywhere back there, and that’s the big story on the news.

Now let’s have some fun.

Yesterday there was a launch of a rocket at Vandenburg, Wes got some great pictures that I had to share.

With all the rain of the season, I was wondering how this season compares to other record years. I figured we were way up there in the wettest years, but this is not a fact. This year was very wet, but nowhere near the record years, we are around the 6th wettest year recorded. here’s the data.

https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Good Friday morning,

Another Friday after another wet week. It has just been incredible how many wet weeks we have had this year.

I can not remember any year since I moved here in 1982 with more rain, even the 1998 El Nino year.

Finally, the drought control folks have realized that we are not out of the drought in California.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/losangeles/news/california-drought-update-winter-storm-lifts-regions-out-of-drought/

The good news is we will see a few days of dry weather, through Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday we will see a chance of rain, they are at 40% for us now, but it will be ¼ of an inch or less.

This will be a very cold storm again with snow levels around 3000 feet. https://zoom.earth/

Sunday it will be cloudy and cool.

Monday through Wednesday will be dry, with offshore winds and some warming. The warming that occurs will still be below normal temps in the low 60s.

Thursday the Jury is still out on the change in the weather. The models are not in agreement, one is wet and the other is not sure.

We will watch how it goes into next week.

At this point, it looks like Saturday night we can see a little rain-snow at 3000 feet, ¼ inch or less. Next week dry until Thursday then a big question Mark.

Stay tuned and enjoy a few days of good weather.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Amen, we get a break from the rain. All the rain has created lots of problems, but the good is the outcome of all our lakes have water.

I know I keep going back to this report that is updated daily, but these numbers are just crazy. 206% of normal for this time of year countywide. 151 % of rainfall for the entire year from October first to October first and we still have 7 months to go for the season https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Now for the forecast. Today is cool but sunny. Highs will make it to a whopping 61 degrees. Nights in the 40s. Winds will be a reasonable 5 to 10 miles an hour.

Dry weather will remain for likely the next week with no big systems out there. There will be a slight chance for rain Sunday night and Tuesday, but these systems look to stay to the north, not affecting our area with rain, maybe some clouds.

Highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s . with lows in the 40s in coastal areas and 30s in the valleys. All in all, we will get a chance to dry out and get a few more tarps off roofs.

Enjoy the dry period, check out the photos of June lake with a wall of snow. (thanks Peter)

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Welcome to March. The cold front is really marching in with force this morning.

The winds are whipping this morning with 40-mile-an-hour gusts at my house.

Last night we said goodbye to February with some interesting rain, wind thunder lighting, and another .75 to 2 inches of rain, just crazy as the rain totals for the season keep adding up. 

Today we will see chilly temps, wind, showers, and snow in the local mountain as the low pushes south out of our area.

It looks like the showers should last till around noon and the wind will hang around all day. 

Tonight, is really cold weather, especially in the mountains and valleys. Expect freezing temps.

Thursday we will be dry and sunny through Saturday and part of Sunday. Temps will rise into the low 60s warming us up slightly. 

Sunday and into next week the jury is still out on whether we will see more rain.

A weaker system will affect the central coast Sunday night into Monday, but the models still are not sure how far south the rain will go.

Midweek is another weaker system with the same question mark. We will have to decide how that plays out as we get into the weekend.

In the meantime, the core of the low is pushing through now and will be with us till noon, with showers, https://zoom.earth/

LA is getting the bulk of the rain now. 

Enjoy the Fun, calmer days will prevail on Thursday. 

Jack Martin 

Good Tuesday morning and the last day of February,

Although this is not a leap year. 2024 is, so I will get it right next year 😊

We will have a relatively dry Tuesday before more rain returns late afternoon and tonight.

It makes me laugh when the National weather service writes in the forecast that the storm system has overachieved expectations.

I think pretty much this entire rainy season has overachieved expectations, as we are more than 200% of normal rainfall for the season today. Can you believe San Marcos pass has received 58 inches of rain this season, so far?

Here is the next round of weather heading our way https://zoom.earth/#view=33,-117.8,4z/map=live .

This is north to south right now, but it will be cut off later in the day.

creating south winds and good rainfall late this afternoon and tonight. snow levels will start out today at 3000 to 4000 feet, then overnight drop to 1500 to 2500 feet.

This will bring back lots of pretty pictures of our mountains and plenty of snow. Closer to sea level more rain. ½ to 1 ½ inches with 1 to 3 inches in the hills and at the best exposure another 4 inches. Snow will be in the feet above 5000 feet, 4 to 8 inches below and snow down to 1500 feet by Wednesday morning. The rain/snow will end Wednesday during the day then the chill returns Wednesday night with freezing temps overnight. (stay off the 154 Thursday morning, we don’t need another 6-car crash from ice)

Thursday through Saturday day we are looking for dry weather, and a slight warm-up. Highs will get into the low 60s, which is better than the 50s.

Sunday and into next week, it just will not break. it looks like we will be remaining in the wet pattern with more rain and cool weather.

This pattern really must break soon since we are getting into March and typically the end of the rainy season. Let’s hope for some 70s after next week.

In the meantime enjoy the wet, cool weather another week. You don’t have a choice unless you get on a plane.

Jack Martin