8/17/23

By Jack Martin on Aug 17, 2023 at 04:58 PM

Good Thursday morning, I think !!!! 

I woke up very early this morning thinking about what is to come. 

Waiting for the normal 3:35 am forecast discussions update that did not arrive until almost 5am. 

I was not sleeping in, but there is so much to talk about what is coming. The top forecasters at the national weather service took longer to send their updates. 

The bottom line here is Zoom Earth shows you what’s happening or more so what is going to happen 
https://zoom.earth/storms/hilary-2023/

Short-term, who really cares? It is all about what’s coming starting Sunday.

Hilary is now a hurricane and looks to strengthen over the next 24 hours. 

This is well to the south, but moving north quickly. High surf, heavy rain, winds, thunderstorms, flash floods. All crazy stuff like that MIGHT affect us Sunday through Tuesday. 

The bottom line, all models are pointing towards a 100% rain chance starting Sunday.

Rain can be heavy if the track stays the same, we are looking at 1 to 2 inches between Sunday and Tuesday. 

Coastal flooding, and winds 20 to 35 miles an hour. 

This system is going to move north as we get into the weekend and looks to hug the coast. Where it turns in is still in question, but right now point conception looks like a bullseye Monday. We will be watching this through the rest of the week and weekend because we typically do not see systems like this affect us. The last one that really hit us like this was the 1970s. I will be watching this closely, but winds, heavy rain, and surf is going to make it very interesting. 

Lots more to come. You have been warned. 

Get ready for a system that comes every 50 years.

Enjoy the fog, it is 800 feet thick, nice, and cool to start at 59 degrees. Humidity arrives Saturday, and rain Sunday and Monday. 

Jack Martin

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