Jack's Weather Report

Good Monday morning,

Let’s start with what a great weekend it was! Sunday was fantastic as everyone got into the 80s.

As you wake up this morning you can smell and feel the change. Onshore flow is back, and cooler temps are back.

Coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and inland in the 70s. This pretty much spells the weather the next 2 days.

All models are in good agreement the next 3 days, through Wednesday. Then the models differ.

Wednesday is now looking to start off dry, then rain will pick up from north to south Wednesday after 10am north and 4 pm south. Look for around ¼ of an inch for all by Wednesday evening.

Wednesday night through Friday rain, moderate to heavy at times. The timing is not clear at this point, because this is a cut off low sitting offshore and spinning with no movement.

https://zoom.earth/

Wednesday night the rain should pick up intensity and Thursday should be our wettest day.

Friday rain likely, time will really tell when this cut off low really moves through. Rain totals have been going back and forth, but 1 to 3 inches is still likely. Models today are trending on the lighter side of the 1 to 3 inches.

It still is not clear when the front or cut off low will move. As mentioned in the past, a cut off low is like a 2-year-old. Wondering when and where it wants.

Enjoy typical fall weather the next 2 days before the rain arrives sometime Wednesday. Starting out lighter than picking up overnight.

Flooding's really should not going be a problem, as the ground is quite dry. This will be a good storm for this time of year, but not a January or February storm.

This will mix with a weaker atmospheric river, but the heaviest moisture will remain to the south.

Enjoy the first rain of the year, we will be in storm mode for the first time this season.

Jack Martin

Good Saturday morning,

Where do we start? so much that will happen with out really knowing how much rain and exactly when it will rain. So let’s start with this weekend.

As the National weather service calls it “2 chamber of commerce days this weekend" This weekend will likely be the nicest weekend until 2024.

As it typically happens in November the overnight lows are quite chilly 36 in Santa Ynez, 44 in the foothills of SB, 52 along the coast and mark 38 at Regan's ranch.

After the sunrises the warmup will begin, and mercury will climb quickly. Highs today will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s as offshore flow is driving the heating and the cold nights.

Sunday, it only gets better. Temps will rise another 3 to 5 degrees. just another great day.

Next week, Monday starts out with a minimal change with onshore flow returning and cooler temps.

Tuesday the real changes begin to take effect, but the rain should hold off until Wednesday.

Wednesday through Friday rain chances increase. The only problem is we still do not have a good handle on how much or when it will rain.

It looks like the low will park offshore and spin moisture into us. As it moves closer to us the rain will develop. We are still tracking the amount of rain. Right now 1 to 3 inches.

The best way to describe this is as the national weather service did it with percentages:

"It will be dry through Tuesday. A significant weather pattern shift
will occur mid-to-late next week. Rain will develop at some point
between Tuesday night and Friday. Confidence is moderate in amounts
and low in timing. There is a 70 percent chance of a 1 to 3 inch
event, a 10 percent chance of a 3 to 6 inch event. Also, there is a
20 percent chance of a light event with 1 inch or less. Early
estimates show that the peak rainfall will occur sometime between
Thursday and early Friday (this too could change with time)."

Have a great weekend and we will figure it out next week, get ready for rain if you will be affected

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

A weak system is passing through which will give us cooler temps today and some high clouds. The day is starting out quite chilly with Santa Ynez at 36 degrees, Santa Barbara foothills 44 degrees and the beach areas 54 degrees.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=40.38,-129.13,5z/date=2023-11-10,00:20,-8

Todays highs are looking cooler at 71 degrees.

Saturday northeast winds a weaker Santa Ana wind event will warm up day time temps to upper 70s to mid 80s depending on your location. Great weather will be all weekend long.

Next week the first part of the week will be fair, but we start to transition to a wet pattern mid week. Right now it looks like dry Monday and most of Tuesday. The rain moves in north to south some time Tuesday afternoon to the north and late Tuesday for us in SB.

As mentioned yesterday, we will see rain Wednesday through Friday. However we still do not have a good handle on how much. The latest model runs have backed off on the amount of rain the last few forecast runs. What does this mean? As always predicting rain totals a week out is relied on computer models. These really can vary this far out. It will be Monday before we really have a good handle on this, when the short range models take over the predictions.
Bottom line, we will see rain and excess of monthly averages for November. Previous model runs were calling for 3 times total monthly averages for November. Now we might see less, but still significant for any November storm. My preference is alway to start the season with a moderate rain to bring down the cobwebs, instead of wash them away. Unfortunately, I can not control the weather only report it.

Anyway you look at it, we will see rain and we will have a great weekend.

Enjoy the weekend and we will know more by Monday

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Another week flying by. So will the winds in Santa Ana country.

Wednesday the winds came up and gusts were 50 miles an hour to the south of SB. Today the winds will calm some for a day, highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. A weak system will roll through Friday. This will do nothing more then cool us down a few degrees. Highs will drop into the low 70s on Friday.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=40.38,-129.13,5z/date=2023-11-09,02:30,-8

Saturday and Sunday we warm up again with another off shore wind event. Highs will be in the low 80s with chilly nights, especially in the valleys where upper 30s are likely.

Next week is where the change starts. Nothing too exciting to start the week. Monday and Tuesday we will see cooling, but that’s the only real change. Wednesday is the day that rain will arrive. Thursday is now slated to be the day of the greatest rainfall.

This next system is building to be a good one as models are in agreement that we will see wet weather Wednesday through Friday. This system looks to be a strong early season storm with a subtropical connection. As we have talked about many times in the past, when warm moist air interacts with cool air from the north it spells higher rain fall. This is not typical for November, but at this point we are trending toward very wet.

How wet? well 2 to 5 inches wet. The higher end numbers are more in the mountains but expect a good 2 day period of rain and heavy at times. The heaviest rain is more likely to be Thursday.

This system is still 7 days away, so we do not have rain totals nailed down.

Time will tell on exactly how much rain we will see, but it should be a significant storm for this early in our season.
Just so you understand, The rain year starts October 1 and goes to September 30th... Don’t ask me why, because I really don’t know. “Mike?”

My guess is typically our rainy season does not start until October.

Anyway enjoy the great weather for the weekend, then next week we will be thinking about the rain.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Last night it was all about the winds. They blew pretty hard all night at my house from the northwest. This was all from a storm system to the north that only brushed us with the winds.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=192&y=117&site=lox&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=192&map_y=117

Today it is all about the shift of the winds to the northeast as another Santa Ana event begins late this morning and runs though Thursday.

Expect high fire danger and wind of 50 miles an hour. Temps each day will be on the rise, but in wind sheltered areas like Santa Ynez expect freezing temps at night, the next 2.

Friday brief onshore flow then another off shore event for the weekend making Saturday and Sunday fantastic warm days with 80s for highs.

Next week, the great weather shifts to a rainy and wet week. Monday is transition day where onshore and cooling will begin.

Tuesday mid to high clouds will roll in, rain possible Tuesday evening on the central coast.

Wednesday though Friday, it is not about if it will rain, it is about how much and when.

All areas will see some rain likely starting Wednesday. How much is still in question, but models are beginning to agree that we will see the first significant rain of the season. Right now 2 to 4 inches is the bench mark. At this point it is still too far out to know if this will be the amount of rainfall, but it will rain.

The good news is we have a week to prepare, however you need to.

Enjoy the great weekend and weather the rest of this week, change is coming.

Jack Martin

Afternoon forecast today,

Nothing has really changed in our forecast since Sunday’s report. A low pressure system is passing through the central coast.

https://zoom.earth/

This will bring some light rain maybe to the central coast, and wind everywhere else. The next few days is really about northwest winds followed by northeast winds Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some really chilly nights those days also.

Nothing exciting all week long, just highs in the low 70s and chilly nights.

Looking into the 10-day forecast next Tuesday through Friday. It does appear we might see our first real rain for the season. (FYI the rain season started oct 1st to sept 30th)

It looks like the target day is going to be Wednesday, but lots can happen in the 7 to 9 days .

As always stay tuned. 😊

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Chilly start to the day, and daylight started earlier with the time change.

It was great timing for the clocks to be rolled back because I was out until after 11pm last night at the Kenny Loggins. What a great show he put on, the bowl was packed and Michael McDonald played with him. So much fun last night, glad for the time change.

Weather wise another chilly start to the day. We will see cooler weather into next week with a series of systems to the north affecting the weather. The only chances of rain will be in SLO. Just winds here.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=192&y=117&site=lox&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=192&map_y=117

Temps will be in the low 70s and chilly 50s coastal and cooler in the valleys of the upper 30s and 40s overnight.

Looking into next weekend, models are still not in alignment as a system may brush us.

Stay tuned, and enjoy your Sunday. Time to fix those clocks.

Good dark Saturday morning,

6:19 am today it is dark, Sunday morning w will have daylight. Don’t forget turn back your clocks tonight 1 hour.

If you have tech, it will do it for you (the worst part is ½ my clocks do this, and the other half do not, So what time is it ?)

Today, there is a neutral flow , meaning onshore and offshore is the same. Onshore will take over today.

If you are in LA you will see dense fog at LAX and some coastal areas, thanks to fog in the Catalina area.

The next week is all about weather systems passing through to the north of our forecast areas. These systems are causing rain in the pacific northwest.

And the systems will sag south to die at the central coast. Rain to the bay area but nothing here but wind. There is a slight possibility of some light rain on the central coast Tuesday.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=41.2,-114.2,4z This next week really shows that systems are running through to the north, but the season for rain here has not arrived “Yet”

For us, today is a nice warm day after the sun rises. Chilly this morning, pack a sweatshirt. Nice overall with a high in SB of 79 and mid 80s in the valleys.

Gaviota to Refugio, plan on winds to come up this evening. Sundowner winds are likely almost any evening this next week. Sun downer wind might even make it to SB Tuesday evening.

Rain chance is not out there, damp mornings and cooler “yes“. Highs will drop into the upper 60s on Tuesday-Wednesday.

Later in the week, slight offshore flow Wednesday into Thursday then onshore again. The news stations are trying to get your attention advertising rain next Friday. I would not bet the house on that at all.

Have a great Saturday, it will be extremely nice today for November. Kenny Loggins is at the Bowl tonight, bring a light jacket or sweatshirt for after sunset. It should be a great show at the Bowl.

Have a great weekend.

Don’t forget turn back the clocks tonight, and you get an extra hour of sleep.

Good Friday morning,

Another crazy work week nearing the end. The weekend is upon us and we have a time change this weekend. We will lose an hour of daylight in the evening, but gain it in the mornings. This will help the kids that go to school earlier since daylight is not till after 7am right now. As My 3 year old grand daughter says “The sky is not blue yet so it is not time to wake up” Well it will be blue Sunday morning when she opens her eyes ... Kids say the funniest things 😂

With our weather, we are enjoying just fantastic summer like daytime temps, but chilly overnight temps, especially in the valleys.

It looks like today will be the last day of off shore winds and Saturday we should see some morning dampness return and onshore flow.
The storm track is well to the north in the Pacific Northwest but will sag some into early next week.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33.8,-112.4,4z

The only result of this will mean pressure gradience and north to northwest winds for us Sunday and into next week.

Temps will easy back some with mid to upper 70s coastal and low 80s in the valleys.

Chilly nights to continue for many moons ahead.

Later next week, it looks like another Santa Ana event and off shore winds again.
“It is that time of year" No rain in site...

Enjoy the weekend, Saturday night you get an extra 1 hour of sleep, and you might wake to blue skies instead of darkness.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

What a week it has been for hot weather. The Santa Ana and off shore winds has kept everyone hot and dry all this week. We have one more day of dry weather and hot before we begin to get a break.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=193&y=117&site=lox&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=193&map_y=117

It looks like Friday we will shift to neutral and onshore flow will begin.

This will cool us down some and coastal will start to see some morning dampness with onshore flow. The valleys should stay warm.

This weekend will be fair, with some cooler temps but still above normal.

Next week looks like a series of lows will pass to the north with Seattle getting quite wet. Rain however will not make it this far south. Central coast at best, but not likely.

A series of systems will roll through to the north next week bringing us wind at best and some onshore flow.

Bottom line no rain is in site.

Jack Martin