Jack's Weather Report

Good Wednesday morning,

A weak weather system is going to move in today, but the emphasis is on weak.

The low is in the Bay Area currently and beginning to kick some showers our way.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=32.698,-126.171,6z

Looking at the radar it looks like Lompoc might see some showers soon, however rain will be light. 1/4 inch or less. South of point conception (Santa Barbara) likely 1/10 of an inch. Where some light showers can occur thought the day, this will likely not impact our day to much.

Tonight the system clears out and Thursday will be a dry day, with some wind.

Friday another weak system, that really will just create some wind.
The weekend and into next week, some warming and Santa Ana conditions. Highs should be in the low 70s.

As far as rain goes, it is not looking to be more than some light showers today.

Areas to the north will see better rain totals, but 1/4 inch at best, here more like 1/10 of an inch. This being said it will be a normal work day at Action with plastic on hand if we get a stray shower here and there.

Enjoy the day, a little rain is about all we will see.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Changes are in the air, today will be dry, then rain chances arrive Wednesday.

Here is the system 750 miles offshore spinning https://zoom.earth/

This will open up tonight and begin to move onshore Wednesday. The rain is going to be focused on the central coast and Santa Ynez valley to Santa Barbra.

The greatest rainfall will be in SLO and drop off as it moves south. Looks like Santa Barbara will see ¼ inch or less Wednesday into Wednesday night.

There will also be a series of weak systems arriving Thursday night and Saturday. These will only bring some showers, not a lot of rain.

Bottom line we will see some rain, just not a lot. Today will be dry, Wednesday some rain. Just enough to turn off sprinklers.

Enjoy,
Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

Hope everyone had a nice holiday weekend, and everyone got home without too much trouble.

It is a cold morning for some, like the Santa Ynez valley, and a windy start to the day in Santa Ana county.

This week we will have a mix of weather as off shore flow is putting up a dome for the first 2 days of the work week. Windy in Ventura and south and warmer days through Tuesday. Highs should be in the 70s after a chilly start.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=56,-155,3.54z

Wednesday it changes as a cut-off low to the west will spin then open up. This will bring the central coast and Santa Barbara a good chance for some rain. This is predicted to be a weaker system with not a lot of rain Wednesday. Then another system Thursday into Friday. At this point this is more of an inside slider, which means less rain and more wind. Bottom line, it looks like a damp second half of the week, with not a lot of rain, but enough to give sunny California some obstacles.

Since Wednesday's system is one of those lovely cut off lows, we will see what happens, but off shore flow and a dry airmass is not looking to produce a lot of rain.

Enjoy 2 dry days then rain chances come into play sometime Wednesday into Friday.

28 days till Christmas

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning, 

Travel day for many drivers. My suggestion stay off the freeways. 

Today will be the last warmer day until next week. High pressure and offshore winds will turn onshore. As you can see a weak Pacific Northwest system is approaching California 
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=33,-113.4,4z

This will arrive on Thursday or Turkey Day. Really it will not do much other than high clouds and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. If I was a betting man, 47 other states in the country would rather have our weather. 

The cooling trend will continue into the weekend, with some clouds and cooler, but no rain in site. Next week looks like a warm-up as offshore returns. 

Have a great Thanksgiving with family and friends, I might need to dust off the bike and go for a ride.

Enjoy, gobble gobble 🦃 

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Thank goodness we are through that storm, or lack of. The entire hype and forecast for the last 10 days was a total bust. It was a rough period for the forecasters.

Here are the results from the past 24 hours, as you can see it was 1/4 inch for the most part, except for SLO where they received .60 to almost and inch.

https://cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipMaps.php?group=sv&hour=24&synoptic=0

Today and the next few days it will all be about the wind. All you need to do is look out the window and you can see the northwest winds blowing. Winds will continue through the day then pick up this evening. 20 miles to gusts of 50 miles an hour are likely.

Later tonight, winds shift to the northeast and Montecito hill will really begin to feel it.

Monday off shore winds and a Santa Ana event ramps up into Wednesday with warm conditions. 70s and 80s are likely. Typical Santa Ana windstorm the south Monday and Tuesday. Indian summer conditions through Wednesday.

Thanksgiving is looking to be dry, and a little cooler with highs around 70 for most. The rest of the holiday weekend will be nice, with no rain in site.

Thankfully we are off to a dry start to the season of rain.

Enjoy the windy Sunday, a short work week for some is right around the corner.

Jack Martin

Good Monday morning,

Chilly start to the day, and quite windy for some. Today is all about wind warnings, especially in the hills in Santa Ana world. https://www.weather.gov/lox/

This week will start with Santa Ana winds to the south and dry weather for all this week. Monday through Wednesday Santa Ana winds and 70s.

Thursday and Friday a dry inside slider, and slightly cooler. Dry will continue all the way through the week.

No rain this week, only wind for some

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

The cut off low is finally on the move towards us https://zoom.earth/

That means rain is on the way, but not during daylight hours most likely.

Rain tonight and Saturday. heaviest rain is looking to be overnight into Saturday 10am. Then turn to showers ending late Saturday.

Rain total we are looking at ½ to 1 ½ inch overall for coastal areas and 1 to 2 inches in the foothills and mountains. It can be heavy at times

Sunday wind, Montecito hills 20 to 30 miles an hour and 50 mile an hour gusts

Next week, offshore Santa Ana event will warm us up onto the 70s and 80s Monday through Wednesday.

Thursday (Thanksgiving ) an inside dry slider will only cool us off a little with highs in the low 70s.

Enjoy the rain, it will finally arrive after we have talked about this for 10 days now.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Look at Adams photo of the clouds yesterday, they looked like waves in the sky. A number of folks were asking me what type of clouds these were, so I had to go to the top and ask my friend at the national weather service. Mike’s comments “We've gotten a ton of calls and even my son called me from school wondering what they were. They are officially called Undulatus Asperatus. Basically they are a sign of unstable air aloft”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asperitas_(cloud)

Thank you Mike.

Moving on, with the forecast.

Yes, that cutoff low is still making all weathermen scratch their heads.

As discussed for the past week, it is just spinning out in the Pacific with little to no movement.

On Wednesday, the counterclockwise rotation did pull up some warm moist subtropical air which did give us brief rain showers and got everyone wet at times, but it really did not add up to much.

Also the winds at times really messed with the outdoor activities.

Now here we are one day forward and the cut off low is still spinning out in the pacific and pushing the rain out another 12 hours, until later Friday at this point
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=29.68,-114.56,5z

As mentioned yesterday, today looks to me relatively dry with only the Santa Ynez mountains seeing the most rain.

Here at lower elevations 1/10 of an inch or less today and tonight. Highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Friday is now looking to be dryer again though most of the day, but Friday around 4pm the low finally starts to move eastward towards us and the real rain will finally arrive.

It now looks like Friday night will be the wettest period with rain rates of .25 to .50 per hour. Rain will likely fall into most of Saturday with rain totals of 1 to 2 inches through Saturday.

Saturday night the system clears out and and Sunday will be dry and breezy.

Next week,(Thanksgiving week) is shaping up to be quite nice with high pressure building in and above normal temps.

Expect some areas to have highs in the 80s and chilly nights. Thanksgiving day is also looking quite nice.

In the meantime rain will happen, it just delayed a little longer.

Remember last week when we started talking about the never rain arrive Tuesday night, into Wednesday, now it looks like Friday later afternoon.

Don’t put away the rain gear and umbrellas, it is coming.

Enjoy the dryer day, we will pick this conversation up on Friday morning.

Have a great day, time to get ready for my day job.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

Some light rain is working it way into the area right now https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

This is subtropical from the south with not a lot of dynamics, so rain will be light today and tonight.

Here is how it looks from the sky right now https://zoom.earth/ southeast flow will block a lot of the rain in Santa Ynez today, because of the mountains in Santa Barbara.

Rain amounts in the valley will be lower today. Santa Barbara we are looking at ¼ to ½ inch through tonight.

The rain will come in 2 waves, today much lighter, and Thursday is looking to be dry most of the day as the low just spins out over the ocean.

Friday the low moves over us and the heaviest rain will occur Friday into Saturday. it looks like 1 to 1 ½ could fall during that period.

Sunday the storm goes away, and we should have good weather all thanksgiving week. Yes, Thanksgiving is almost here.

Have a great day, light showers today, nothing crazy

Good Tuesday morning,

It looks like we have 1 more day of dry weather before the rain arrives.

Looking at zoom earth you can see the low pressure system developing well to the west in the Pacific. This will really start to sharpen and take shape over the next 24 hours.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=27.94,-123.74,5z

As mentioned, this system is a cut off low that typically has a mind of its own and it makes forecasting timing difficult. Which brings us to Tuesday at 5:30 am the 14th on November.

"what am I saying?" Well rain is on track to start on Wednesday, but it now looks like the heaviest rain is not going to occur until Friday and into Saturday.

This is all thanks to low pressure remaining spinning off shore until it begins to move closer. So here is how it looks as of today...

Wednesday, rain will start up after 10 am and will begin light to moderate 1/4 to 1/2 inch Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday some showers, but some sun also. It appears the low will not move and just spin out in the pacific until Friday.

Friday is now the day with the heaviest rain. Yes, back to the 1 to 3 inches part. As this low tracks closer the rain will pick up and a mild tap into subtropical moisture and bring southeast winds.

Depending on how quickly the system moves East will determine how long the rain will hang around. Right now it looks like it will continue into Saturday and end Sunday.

This is a moving target, as the models have not really been great with timing. Time will tell us lots more. In the mean time, dry today, light rain Wednesday, lull in the action Thursday and heavy rain Friday.

As I always said, cut off lows are like a 2 year old at the beach. You must keep one eye on them at all times, because you never know where they will wonder.

Stay tuned, more update to come.

Jack Martin