Jack's Weather Report

12/15/23

By Jack Martin on Dec 15, 2023 at 06:01 PM

Good Friday morning,

If you take a look at the satellite, you’re gonna see that offshore flow, and the ridge is keeping all the clouds away and pushing them to the north. This condition will persist through Saturday and matter of fact, Saturday will be the warmest day of the next seven with the upper 70s and some low 80s But quite chilly at night.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.9,-129.3,4z/date=2023-12-15,03:00,-8

Sunday picture begins to change high pressure starts to go away and the first system starts to move in. It does look like this will be pushed more to the north and rain will be minimal and not starting until later Sunday afternoon. With this being said we should see anywhere from 1/4 to a half an inch in Santa Barbara. Add a bit more on the Central Coast.

Monday Looks to be showering with possibly a quarter of an inch of rain.

Transition day Tuesday before a cut-off low arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. This is the system to watch. At this point, it appears the low is just going to spin around off the coast and pull up moisture from the subtropical and will just pump the rain into the area affecting the south-facing mountains of Montecito and Santa Barbara with the heaviest rainfall. It does appear 1 to 3 inches of rain is likely, but the exact timing is still not clear.

Looks like the period Wednesday through Friday are the most likely days for the heavier rain. The cut-off low makes it difficult to predict the exact timing and the amount of rain so stay tuned.

More fun to come 

Jack Martin

12/14/23

By jack martin on Dec 14, 2023 at 09:33 PM

Are we counting the days? We now have 2 things to count...
3 days of dry weather before rain arrives... 11 days until Christmas.

For the weather, you can see on zoom earth high pressure is keeping all clouds away for the next 3 days. Then a series of systems will begin to affect us starting Sunday.

Then next week, a second larger system for the 20th to the 22nd.

The first system will arrive Sunday into Monday. Rain chances start on the central coast Sunday morning and drop south through the day. This is not going to be a big rain maker, but 1/2 to 1 inch between Sunday and Monday. It does look like some rain on Monday.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker:
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/

Tuesday looks to be the only day between systems that will be dry.

The door opens up Wednesday through Friday for the second bigger system. Exact details are still a little sketchy for timing and rain amounts so we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out, but this does have a potential for heavy rain and a large accumulation.

In the mean time, enjoy 3 days of warm dry weather. Sunny skies and above normal temps through Saturday. Expect highs in the 70s to upper 70s Friday and Saturday. As always stay tuned, more to come.

Jack Martin

12/13/23

By jack martin on Dec 13, 2023 at 06:19 PM

Good chilly Wednesday morning,

Winds are shifting once again to off shore. What this means is above normal temps during the day and colder nights. There will be temperature change, day to night of 40 degrees in some locations.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.04623413085939&lat=34.6196473597972

Dry weather is expected through Saturday, then major changes are expected most of next week, with our first chance of rain Sunday into Monday.

Let’s start with current weather. Off shore winds will start to warm us up. Expect Friday and Saturday to be the warmest days. Highs in the mid 70s to 80 degrees in the warmest locations, but colder nights.

Sunday look for the first storm system to arrive, chances of rain starts during the day, especially on the central coast. Rain fall is not clear yet, but 1/2 to 3/4 on the central coast 1/4 to 1/2 in the Santa Barbara area and 1/10 in LA. This first system does not have a lot of moisture to work with.

After that it gets very interesting. Models are still not really aligned but if it all comes together we could see a series of storms affection us in the 7 to 12 day forecast leading up to Christmas. Right now, as it stands, we could see subtropical moisture combined with low pressure later next week. Should this happen we will see heavy rain, and likely a series of systems from the 20th to at least the 25th.

Nothing is for sure right now, but we need to watch this closely as we get into the weekend. It does appear we will be getting into a wet pattern, just how wet is still to be determined.

Stay tuned, this is the time of year where Jack's forecast gets interesting.

Jack Martin

12/12/23

By jack martin on Dec 12, 2023 at 04:52 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

Another chilly start to the day in the Santa Ynez valley at 36 degrees and 50 in Santa Barbara. Highs today will be around 70s.

Starting Wednesday some cooling as a weak front passes through affecting temps only. Off shore flow starts to build back up Thursday with warm on Friday and Saturday.

Highs in some valleys might hit 80 degrees on Saturday.

Starting Sunday things begin to change. Models are suggesting rain is starting, but are not in agreement at this point on timing or quantity.

The first system Sunday into Monday should be fairly weak with lighter rain. The big question pops up with the next system Tuesday into Wednesday. As we turn later in the week the short term models will take over and any questions should be answered. If the long term models are correct we could be into a wet pattern the 19th of December into possibly the new year.

Time will tell, but don’t bet the house on it at this point.

Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker:
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=55.1,-139.5,4z

Talk soon,
Jack Martin

12/11/23

By Jack Martin on Dec 11, 2023 at 08:50 PM

Good Monday morning,

This week will pretty much be a carbon copy of last week. I you are enjoying the nice dry weather; you will like this forecast.

Today some high clouds streaming over us and a high is around 70 degrees along the coast and 75 in the valleys. Nights will be in the 50s coastal and 40s in the valleys.

Santa Ynez is a chilly 39 degrees and 53 in Santa Barbara. here is how it looks from the sky https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.05,-112.86,5z

All week through Saturday it looks to be the same results, with nice days and highs around 70 to mid-70s.

Looking towards the weekend Saturday looks to be cloudier and then the rain word creeps into the forecast on Sunday. we will have to see how this plays out but I guess it is time that we start to see some of that wet stuff.

It has been a good run of dry weather allowing me to get caught up from all the rain earlier in the year. enjoy the dry weather this week, there might be changes upcoming.

I know the big question you have is what happened to El Nino? well, it is still in the picture and out there. El Nino typically hits us January through March and it is still likely to bring us an above normal rainfall for the weather year.

Our weather year goes from October 1st, 2023, to September 30th, 2024. don’t think it is off the table because we have been dry for the past few months.

The holiday season might be starting later in the mountains, but it is still more than likely to happen. Here is the latest of the possibilities.  https://www.newsweek.com/noaa-maps-el-nino-rain-snow-winter-1850730

Have a great week, you will likely need to look back in a month to remember the dry weather before Christmas.

Jack Martin

12/7/23

By jack martin on Dec 07, 2023 at 05:57 PM

If you live in the Pacific Northwest you've been experiencing an atmospheric river this week, flooding and lots of rain.

Quite a different story back in Southern California where the only real weather Action will be wind.

Today the tail end of the Pacific Northwest low will past through. No rain here, but this afternoon and tonight lots of wind. Especially the Montecito hills where 70 mile an hour gusts are possible.

As far as temps go highs will be in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, today and the next week.

It is pretty easy to sum up our forecast for the next 7 days, with the only real excitement is some wind at times.

Southern California will be perfect with highs around 70 degrees and lows in the valleys with 40s and coastal 50s. I think most of the country would Settle for our lows as highs. We will need a sweatshirt at best.

Enjoy the pre holiday great shopping weather. No excuses for the weather. Just don’t use those credit cards, unless you pay them off ever month because the interest will hurt.

Enjoy the weekend, likely no reason for a report Friday

Bring rain gear if your going to the Pacific Northwest

Jack Martin

12/6/23

By jack martin on Dec 06, 2023 at 07:42 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

How about that weather in Tuesday, SB hit 79 degrees, Santa Ynez 82 degrees

A storm system in the pacific northwest is now working its way towards California https://zoom.earth/

This has been dropping buckets of rain in the northwest and California will get the tail end of this.

Rain possibilities will be as far south as Santa Ynez, but 1/10th of an inch or less this afternoon - tonight.

For us, SB south. no rain only wind, that is pretty much the story for the next week.

Today offshore turns on shore this afternoon, it will be a cooler day with a high of around 70 degrees.

Tonight Northwest winds blow though, winds will pick up tonight then tail off Thursday morning.

Later Thursday the winds shift to the Montecito hills then Friday further south to Santa Ana county.

This pattern will remain though the next week, with onshore, offshore and winds. No rain in site through next week

Have a great day, here comes daylight at 6:19am. December 21st is coming and days will start to get longer once again.

Jack Martin

12/4/23

By jack martin on Dec 05, 2023 at 04:55 PM

Happy Monday the 4th of December. 21 days till Christmas.

A lack of weather reports the last few days, because there is really nothing to report.

The only excitement on the west coast is in the Pacific northwest where they are getting buckets of rain right now. https://zoom.earth/

Here in paradise, it is winter and cooler, but hot for many in areas outside of California.

Tuesday some wind of 40 miles an hour in Santa Ana country. Here in SB calm and warm

It looks like we will be dry for the next 2 weeks will on and off, offshore winds and temps the next 2 days well above normal.

Highs in the mid-70s to low 80s in some locations. Lows at night are quite warm for this time of year. 40s in the valleys and 50s coastal.

Wednesday, we switch to on shore and a slight chance for rain in SLO county, but non here. Maybe some winds

Cooler days through Friday then another round of offshore and Santa Ana winds. It now looks like the same pattern continues through next week.

Dry conditions for the next 2 weeks, snow in mountains will not be like it has been the past 2 years.

We are starting out with less excitement and weather so far. All good in my eyes, no rain is a good thing and we have plenty of water in those lakes.

Jack Martin

11/29/23

By jack martin on Nov 29, 2023 at 05:44 PM

Good Wednesday morning,

A weak weather system is going to move in today, but the emphasis is on weak.

The low is in the Bay Area currently and beginning to kick some showers our way.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=32.698,-126.171,6z

Looking at the radar it looks like Lompoc might see some showers soon, however rain will be light. 1/4 inch or less. South of point conception (Santa Barbara) likely 1/10 of an inch. Where some light showers can occur thought the day, this will likely not impact our day to much.

Tonight the system clears out and Thursday will be a dry day, with some wind.

Friday another weak system, that really will just create some wind.
The weekend and into next week, some warming and Santa Ana conditions. Highs should be in the low 70s.

As far as rain goes, it is not looking to be more than some light showers today.

Areas to the north will see better rain totals, but 1/4 inch at best, here more like 1/10 of an inch. This being said it will be a normal work day at Action with plastic on hand if we get a stray shower here and there.

Enjoy the day, a little rain is about all we will see.

Jack Martin

11/28/23

By jack martin on Nov 28, 2023 at 04:50 PM

Good Tuesday morning,

Changes are in the air, today will be dry, then rain chances arrive Wednesday.

Here is the system 750 miles offshore spinning https://zoom.earth/

This will open up tonight and begin to move onshore Wednesday. The rain is going to be focused on the central coast and Santa Ynez valley to Santa Barbra.

The greatest rainfall will be in SLO and drop off as it moves south. Looks like Santa Barbara will see ¼ inch or less Wednesday into Wednesday night.

There will also be a series of weak systems arriving Thursday night and Saturday. These will only bring some showers, not a lot of rain.

Bottom line we will see some rain, just not a lot. Today will be dry, Wednesday some rain. Just enough to turn off sprinklers.

Enjoy,
Jack Martin