11/9/23

Good Thursday morning, 

Another week flying by. So will the winds in Santa Ana country. 

Wednesday the winds came up and gusts were 50 miles an hour to the south of SB. Today the winds will calm some for a day, highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. A weak system will roll through Friday. This will do nothing more then cool us down a few degrees. Highs will drop into the low 70s on Friday. 
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=40.38,-129.13,5z/date=2023-11-09,02:30,-8

Saturday and Sunday we warm up again with another off shore wind event. Highs will be in the low 80s with chilly nights, especially in the valleys where upper 30s are likely. 

Next week is where the change starts. Nothing too exciting to start the week. Monday and Tuesday we will see cooling, but that’s the only real change. Wednesday is the day that rain will arrive. Thursday is now slated to be the day of the greatest rainfall. 

This next system is building to be a good one as models are in agreement that we will see wet weather Wednesday through Friday. This system looks to be a strong early season storm with a subtropical connection. As we have talked about many times in the past, when warm moist air interacts with cool air from the north it spells higher rain fall. This is not typical for November, but at this point we are trending toward very wet.
 
How wet? well 2 to 5 inches wet. The higher end numbers are more in the mountains but expect a good 2 day period of rain and heavy at times. The heaviest rain is more likely to be Thursday. 

This system is still 7 days away, so we do not have rain totals nailed down. 

Time will tell on exactly how much rain we will see, but it should be a significant storm for this early in our season. 
Just so you understand, The rain year starts October 1 and goes to September 30th... Don’t ask me why, because I really don’t know. “Mike?” 

My guess is typically our rainy season does not start until October. 

Anyway enjoy the great weather for the weekend, then next week we will be thinking about the rain. 

Jack Martin