Jack's Weather Report

Good Monday morning and Presidents’ Day,

For some, you get to sleep in and celebrate another day off that is on the books for schools, government and banks. I am a president of Action Roofing, but no day off for me. It will be another busy day with around 3 inches of rain overnight and 5 inches on the pass. Rain in Ventura and LA is just starting up where LA has seen very little and Ventura 1/3 of what we have seen. The atmospheric river is shifting south over Ventura, Oxnard and LA this morning. Rain here will lighten up a bit late morning with only some showers the rest of the day and even Tuesday during the daytime.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.18,-136.78,5.13z

Rain total have been impressive with 3 plus inches over night, with more rain to follow earlier this morning. Heavy rains are shifting into LA this morning, but they will not see as much as we saw overnight. Showers will continue but on and off through Tuesday day. Tuesday night the low pressure system open up and drifts through our area. This will bring the heaviest rain of the storm with thunder, lighting and a few tornados possible.

Wednesday mid day we clear up through Friday, with another system slated for the weekend. This looks to be lighter with 1/2 to 1 inch of rain.

The way this month has gone 1/2 to an 1inch is like a drizzle or light rain.

In the meantime daylight is coming earlier now, starting in the first half of the 6am hour. We will be able to see what effect the rains have had on our properties and neighborhoods. Here are some rain totals for the storm https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Here is the radar currently, you can see the heavier rain shifting south and lightening up here https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVBX/standard

Stay tuned, it is not over yet. Tuesday night will get real interesting again.

Showers until then.

Jack Martin

Here I am watching the NBA All-Star game and waiting for the 7:30 update for the weather, but you can take a look at the Zoom Earth and see how active we are right now and will continue to be
Zoom Earth | Live Weather Map & Hurricane Tracker
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=37.4,-143.5,4.77z

But based on the last update, we’re looking at heavy rain overnight with a number of inches of rain, falling heavy at times.

The target area is Santa Barbara and Ventura. Los Angeles will stay relatively dry overnight until the early morning hours and then they will be the ones getting the atmospheric river on top of them.

Monday we will start to see a break or a pause because he got forever will be over Ventura and LA and they will see what we’re going to see overnight

Tomorrow for them will be quite crazy with heavy rain. Specially, during rush-hour traffic.

7:12 PM and I’m waiting for the update to come in in 20 minutes or so so I’ll finish this report at that point, but it does look like Santa Barbara will get the heaviest rain from 9 PM until tomorrow morning.

OK I give up I’ve been waiting for the 7:30 update is now 8 o’clock so I’m gonna give you the update. It’s gonna rain a lot.

Talk to you in the morning.

Jack Martin

Good Sunday morning,

Just take a look at this comma shaped system. This a a classic west coast low pressure system that is wound up spinning tropical moisture our way. This is California version of a hurricane. It is 300 mile away from the central coast right now. Getting ready to start the Action later this afternoon on the central coast, to around dawn in LA.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.8,-122.4,4z/date=2024-02-18,00:20,-8

Yesterday the rain started, but it gave everyone 1/4 to 1/3 on an inch, which was spot on the predictions.

Today we will see a pause into the rain until mid afternoon before the real Action starts. This will bring us heavy rain tonight into Monday and really through Monday. Expect wind of 20 to 30 miles an hour with mountains up to 50 miles an hour. Rain rates have been updated and up graded to 1/2 to 1 inch per hour at the peak of the storm, with the storm last from 12 to 24 hours with heavier rain.
Rain totals of 2 to 5 inches coastal 4 to 8 inches foothills and mountains with up to 10 inches on south facing mountains. Yes this is the real deal. Very similar to the last system that we saw, except the ground is even more saturated. All the normal problems with heavy rains will exist from down trees, mud and land slides, power outages to flooding of creek and streams. It will get interesting.

The low pressure system will move very slowly south and is expected to pause over Ventura and LA later Monday afternoon or night. This will just pump more rain over those location.

Flash flood warnings are in effect in the burn areas and along all the creeks and stream.

Evacuation warning have gone out to all the typical locations, basically the same as the last system. Creeks, streams and burn areas.

Tuesday a pause in the rain, before the low opens up and moves through with heavy rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday late morning, the rain should come to an end, with dry days Thursday and Friday. However Saturday into Sunday it looks like more rain with February going out with a bang. Let’s hope that March will be drier. We are tapped out with all the rain in the past month.

Ok you have a little more time to prepare for the strongest part of the system.

It will be a good one.

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning,

Are you ready? Here we go again, but not today or even Saturday daytime.

This is a very interesting article that was shared to me by Steven (Thanks Steven)

This is pretty interesting for two reasons

1. it’s been enough that we are in El Niño but a super El Niño !!!!

2. In the same paragraph, they talk about us getting into La Niña by the end of summer.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/super-el-nino-arrives-rapid-collapse-la-nina-watch

Rare ‘Super’ El Nino arrives but rapid collapse beginning as La Nina Watch issued

A strong El Niño winter season has become a rare "super" El Niño season. But it's quickly losing steam as the ocean undergoes a rapid reversal, likely heading to an opposite La Niña pattern by summer.

As far as our weather goes, we are just a little more than half way through a historical February for rainfall and more is on the way.

Today and Saturday we’re looking at dry weather with some clouds, highs in the 60s to 70° in warmest valleys

Saturday it looks like the next storm system approaches but will only clip SLO.

Saturday night into Sunday rain returns for all. This will start out minimal with 1/4 to 1/2 inch 1 inch on southwest faces.

Sunday some on and off rain, but not anything crazy.

Sunday night into Monday morning it is game on and really all the way though Monday.

Tuesday more rain into the evening.

Wednesday the encore performance like last week. The core of the low will pass and bring heavy rain at times, possible thunder and more. 1 inch per hour rains at times.

All in all, 2 to 4 inches coastal, and 4 to 6 in the foothills and up to 8 more in the mountains and south facing.

Yes it will be another soaker in February. 13 days left, I can’t wait for March….

Ok back to Action, 5 hours of sleep, here we go again

Jack Martin

Good Friday morning, 

Are you ready, here we go again, but not today or even on Saturday daytime.

This is a very interesting article that was shared with me by Steven (Thanks Steven )

This is pretty interesting for two reasons:

It’s been enough that we are in El Niño but a super El Niño!!!! 
In the same paragraph talk about us getting into La Niña by the end of summer

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/super-el-nino-arrives-rapid-collapse-la-nina-watch

Rare ‘Super’ El Nino arrives but rapid collapse beginning as La Nina Watch issued

A strong El Niño winter season has become a rare "super" El Niño season. But it's quickly losing steam as the ocean undergoes a rapid reversal, likely heading to an opposite La Niña pattern by summer.

www.foxweather.com

As far as our weather goes we are just a little more than halfway through a historical February for rainfall and more is on the way.

Today and Saturday we’re looking at dry weather with some clouds and highs in the 60s to 70° in the warmest valleys.

Saturday and looks like the next storm system approaches but that only clips SLO.

Saturday night into Sunday rain returns for all. This will start out minimal with 1/4 to 1/2 inch 1 inch on southwest faces.

Sunday some on-and-off rain, but not anything crazy.

Sunday night into Monday morning it is game on and really all the way through Monday.

Tuesday more rain into the evening.

Wednesday the encore performance like last week. The core of the low will pass and bring heavy rain at times, possible thunder and more. 1 inch per hour rains at times.

All in all 2 to 4 inches coastal and, 4 to 6 in the foothills, and up to 8 more in the mountains and south facing. 

Yes, there will be another soaker in February. 13 days left, and I can’t wait for March …. 

Ok back to Action 5 hours of sleep, here we go again.

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning and happy Valentine’s Day.

A low pressure system is approaching and some are waking up to fog.

Today after the fog clears, an overall nice day, but tonight we will see a 30% chance of rain coming through.

Thursday we will likely see a marine layer, drizzle and some light rain possible, so prepare as needed.

Thursday night into Friday after the weak system rolls through, we have a great day with some highs close to 70 degrees.

Saturday will be transition day before rain starts Saturday night. Beyond Saturday night and Sunday morning, the models are not really clear on exactly when the real rain event will start, but will arrive Sunday night into Monday or later.

Monday is still in question. I’m sure that everything will come together as we get closer as far as Rain goes, we are still on track to see 2 to 5 inches coastal and 5 to 8 inches in foothills and mountains.

Like the last system it will be very windy with winds 40 to 50 miles an hour. Also this system will bring lower snow levels. They will be more like 4500 feet. Needless say we will get into another very wet and windy pattern likely through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday of next week.

Get prepared, this will cause flooding in areas due to the saturated soils and the heavier rains.

Here is a little geography lesson. I did not know the surrounding countries to costa Rica. Today is my last full day, before a travel day Thursday. See you back home late Thursday. Have a great Valentine’s Day, guys don’t forget or you will be in the dog house.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

Dry weather will continue through the weekend with a few slight twists.

Today will be sunny for the most part, with some locations waking up to fog.

After the fog clears mostly sunny with a high of 60.

Tonight fog and some drizzle possible for all as a weak system passes to the north
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=38.82,-126.99,5z

The rest of the work week basically brings us dry conditions with some fog again Wednesday overnight into Thursday.

A weak ridge builds in Thursday and hangs in place through Friday.

Friday night into Saturday a low pressure system pushes into the area and will bring back rain and a wet few systems.

It appears Saturday will be mostly dry, then the first system comes in Saturday night into Sunday. The first system will not bring that much rain, but Sunday night into Monday is when the heavy rain returns into Tuesday.

It does look like the crazy rain total for February will keep adding up with total Sunday till Wednesday of 2 to 4 or more inches coastal and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains.

February has really performed to El Niño 2024 with just crazy rain totals and we are not done yet. With the ground saturated from all the rains earlier in the month, it will not take much to get creeks and stream humming again, some flooding is likely.

Enjoy the rest of the work week which will be dry, with only some fog and drizzle possible over night Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

I return Thursday afternoon, just in time to get ready for the next round of rains. Oh Joy for me !!!

Have a good week, don’t forget Valentine day is Wednesday.

Jack Martin

Good Thursday morning,

Well, last night was just like an encore to a performance.

Whether it’s good or bad news, the rains are over for right now.

It looks like we will have dry weather through at least next Wednesday.

Today the wind is going to blow quite hard as it’s doing so right now at 2:53 AM.

Chilly out there this morning with the snow levels to our local mountain heights last night. We received anywhere from half an inch to 1 1/2 inches of additional rainfall in a very short period of time last night. It actually came down harder than I’ve seen during any of the other storms this year, but it didn’t last for a long period of time.

It looks like we’re in for dry weather and cool temperatures, highs might be in the 50s and then by the Weekend, into the 60s. The good news is that the rains are over and we have had record rains the past 10 days where we are well above normal by almost double. We have more rainfall for the year to date than we typically get for the entire year and our weather season goes from October 1, 2023 to October 1, 2024. As you can see we still have eight months left in our season. Needless to say this year will exceed normal rainfalls totals by far.

I’m sure we’re all ready for a break. We will have to see what the future brings, but looks like the next chance of rain will be late next week.

Enjoy El Niño. What do you like it or not?

Jack Martin

Good Wednesday morning,

It is Wednesday right?? I have lost track of the days because I have worked every day for the last 12.

The rain has been just nuts for the past 10 days and it is not over yet. check this out.

This is done really well and shows how LA area really got hammered but came out of the rains with minimal problems. (you need a spare 10 minutes)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efbLZC55rQE

Take a look at the rain percentages for the year, season to date and the lake levels.

Santa Barbara is now 101% for the entire year of rainfall. 183% year to date.

Lakes are full … and they are opening the dams

https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

What’s happening today? When will the rain be back?

Today, like most of this week so far, it will be mostly dry with just a few showers possible during the day.

It is chilly out there with snow levels at 4000 feet and some snow on the grape vine today.

Tonight another system will bring us more rain. Rain will start up late in the afternoon in SLO then come through our area overnight. Rain totals of another ½ inch

This will move fast and will be mostly over by Thursday sunrise, some showers are possible into Friday morning.

Here it is approaching the bay area now https://zoom.earth/

The weekend and into next week we will get a break, through Tuesday at this point. Models show another system later in the week next.

El Nino continues and this has been a special February, so far with crazy rain totals.

One interesting news story I heard today while typing this report... This weekend is the 60th anniversary of the Beatles first shows on Ed Sullivan in 1964, 60 years ago.

71 million people tuned in to watch them play that night.

If you don’t know Ed Sullivan, he had the best variety show in the 60s and 70s. Everyone tuned in back in the day to watch him on Sunday nights.

I remember watching this all the time when I was a kid. Not that I wanted to at the time. I had no choice because all the adults watch the black and white 25-inch console TV Sunday nights.

It was Lawrence Welk then Ed Sullivan as I remember it .. (25-inch TV was huge at that time)

Am I dating myself? 😊 oh well …. That’s fine …

https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&ei=UTF-8&p=ed+sullivan+show+beatles+first+appearance&type=E211US739G0#id=1&vid=b339b8832b46867dfb18d9723c56e5bf&action=click

Have a great day as always, hope I brighten your day a little, with my humor.

Jack Martin

Good Tuesday morning,

The crazy rain totals just keep climbing as we are now entering into day 8 since the rains began. It is not like the 40 days and 40 nights when Noah’s arch was stated, but it is beginning to feel like it.

Santa Barbara areas in the last 12 hours has received over another inch of additional rain 24 hours almost 2 inches. San Marcos pass 2.45in. Just crazy rain total for this storm, and it is not over yet. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Los angles and San Diego have been getting hammered over the last 24 hours with 10 inches and 15 inches in 48 hours in some locations. https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMLOS

The only good news is the heavy steady rain is now moving out and it will just turn to showers.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=22.9,-109,4z

Today rain continues, but on the lighter side with just showers.

Showers will slow as the day goes on, but Wednesday more light rain as 1 more system brings around 1/4 inch of light rain, posing no real threat but more light rain. In fact there is a slight chance for showers into Friday.

The weekend looks to finally put the rain behind us with dry weather and 60s Saturday and Sunday. Then most likely into Monday also.

Current radar still shows rain in the LA area https://radar.weather.gov/station/KVTX/standard

This has been just nuts with all the rain in the past 8 days.
El Niño lives in California. When it rains it pours here.

Hang in there, we are on the back side now. I would say see you in the trenches, but they are filled with water right now.

Stay dry.

Jack Martin