9/20/24

Good Friday morning and 9/20/24,
 
Lots of fun with the weather and weather report today. 

We will talk about the low pressure system to the east, La Niña for the winter season and fun at the One805 event at Kevin Costner's later today. 

We will start with the current weather.
 
It has been very interesting watching this low pressure system rotate counter clockwise in the middle of the state the last few days. If you look closely right over Bakersfield you will see the rotation of the system https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=31.78,-117.9,5.87z/date=2024-09-20,00:00,-7

Now it has been very interesting to watch, but coastal we have not seen any rain but to the East over the interior they have seen some heavy rain. This system has been moving very slowly down the coast for days now. It will move further East and South as the day goes on. In reality, along the coast, we really will not likely see any Action for a few reasons.

1. The system centers pretty far to the east and rain clouds are not making this far west 
2. Due to the Eastern location and counter clockwise motion the north - south coastal mountain will keep the rain on the East side. This really means we will be in the “rain shadow.“ Now if this low was over the pacific ocean it would be a big rain event for us, but it is too far east.

Rain chances through the morning on paper is 30% for 1/10th or less here. That’s not much rain and 7 out of 10 areas will see no rain.

Highs today lower 70s. Tonight pressure gradients takes over and we will have a change in pressure as low pressure depart and high pressure starts to build in which means we get wind. We will see some wind later tonight up to 40 miles an hour, not crazy, but enough to take note.

Saturday high pressure builds in and we turn to summer conditions through Wednesday of next week. Highs will start in 70s, then 80s, followed by 90s in the local valleys with the hottest day being Monday. High pressure remains till Wednesday then a very weak low will do nothing more than increase the marine layer and cool us off. 
      
Did I mention this was going to be a long weather report?

Now the second part of our forecast is about the El Nina - La Niña chances this winter this is where it gets interesting, and the link below is great, because you can listen to the rundown and look at graphics. If you don’t want to watch I will give you the cliff notes, but I encourage watch if you a weather buff. 
Cliff notes …. 
We are looking at a weak La Niña, which means dryer then normal in southern half of California, then wetter and colder in the Pacific Northwest and average in Nor Cal.

Weak La Niña mean an average of 83% of normal rainfall here for the winter, last year we had over 150% of normal and some areas 180% of normal.
Now watch and read this, it is very informative:
https://www.abc10.com/article/weather/california-la-nina-winter-wet-dry-conditions-rain-update/103-b00dc542-a681-40c0-998d-439e356a2de4

Now to the last item … the One805 event today. It should be a great event as it has been. A great out door event with a line up of great musicians who for the most part live locally, hosted by  Kevin Costner to support the first responders of California and Santa Barbara https://one805.org/events/one805live-fall-2024/. There will be lots of celebrities there last year we got to see Oprah, Harry and Megan and others.

Just check out this line up, pretty cool that we live where we do and we have all these people living near us. Pink, Kenny logan’s, Alan Parsons, Kevin’s band, Al steward, Rich Marx and many more names.
 
The weather should be good with low 70s to start the show and cooling into the 60s at night. (Bring a light jacket) hopefully the wind will stay somewhat calm.
 
See you there, it will be a blast with my 5 hour energy keeping me awake till 9 or 10 pm. “Since my day typically starts at 2am when some close the bars ( not me ) … “

Have a great weekend and I hope I did not bore you 😃
….  See you at the 805 if you are there … 

Jack Martin