2/3/24

By Jack Martin on Feb 06, 2024 at 06:12 PM

Good Saturday morning, 

Ok here we go. You know it is going to be interesting when the schools have already Announced they will be closed on Monday. This reminds me of when I lived in Phila as a kid and we would hover by the radio in the morning and listen to see if the snow closed the schools for the day. It is funny to hear the same thing all these years later in California for Rain 🤔😂 before it even happens 

As everyone is aware my now, we are going to see 2 more, back to back low pressure systems affect us though Tuesday of next week. These 2 events on top of the rains that we have had this week which has saturated the soils. Heavy run off is expected.

Now let’s try to spell out the forecast. 

We have really 2 low pressure systems that will create rain late today, one which is a warmer front coming more westerly today, then Monday and Tuesday coming from the north. 

Both of these will bring us heavy rain with a very large accumulation. 

Here is how it looks from the sky right now https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34,-113.2,4z

Today will be mostly dry, then rain chances start up after 4pm. The heaviest rain will be Sunday into Tuesday 

Tonight rain will fall heavy after midnight all the way through Sunday night with subtropical moisture feeding it.

On Monday, system 2. a colder one drops down and stalls over us pumping in subtropical moisture bring us more heavy rain through Tuesday. 

You can see this from the graphic below when the heaviest rain will fall. 

How much rain will fall and how it will affect us? Let’s talk about the rain … 

3 to 6 inches coastal through Monday 6 to 12 inches in the mountains. 

South facing mountains (us) much more. It is possible we could see 8 inches along the coast and foothills and 15 inches on south facing mountains. 

It will be quite windy, winds last night blew hard from the north west, today later this afternoon they will shift to the southeast setting up our Pineapple Express, or atmospheric river or what ever you want to call it. winds tonight in the mountains will be 60 mils and hour from the southeast.

Rain heavy overnight and all the way through Sunday, with plenty of wind 

Snow levels drop on Monday and lots of snow will fall in resort areas. 

Rains will end Tuesday night, with another weaker storm possible late next week.

Regarding flooding and Evacuations. 

The only area with evacuations in process is the burn areas near Gaviota. 

Here nothing at this point, but I was at Westmont College yesterday and the creeks were running hard with no rain. You can only imagine what a few days of heavy rain will do to creeks, streams and rivers. It will get interesting.

They are comparing this event to Jan 9th 2023. That was wild because I was in the heart of montecito trying to cover roofs. Creeks were roaring. Hotsprings and Olivemill rd the water was running over its banks onto Olivemill rd.

All creeks will be tested to their maximum. If i lived next to a creek Saturday and Sunday night in Montecito especially I would be staying elsewhere. 

The hills are more stable since the shrubs and grasses have grown back. Montecito will learn why you have boulders in your yards. Just look at the mountains above, you can see them quite well, some will come down. 

My best advice, stay tuned. I will up date as I can. 

There will be likely power outages.

I am glad to say I have solar and back up batteries to power my homes when the electricity goes out. Enjoy the ride, that’s it for now more to follow.

Jack Martin

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Gerry & Ann