2/2/24

By jack martin on Feb 02, 2024 at 06:00 PM

Good Friday morning, 

Where do I start today?
 
The first of 2 strong storm systems has passed through leaving us with impressive rain totals for a 24 hour period. Summarizing quickly, everyone saw 3 inches of rain. San Marcos pass 6.32 inches. The Santa Barbara area got hit the hardest.
Here are the local numbers.
https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

Today, we will see some north winds and a few passing showers. Really nothing to be cautious of, maybe a few mountain showers.

Looking ahead the big news is all about the next storm system. The grounds are saturated and the second system is right on the heels of yesterday’s system.
 
If you look closely at the forecast you will see that the timing of the rains start time has moved up by 12 to 24 hours. It does appear we will be mostly dry today and daylight hours on Saturday, but rain will move in Saturday night into the early morning of Sunday. This second system is looking very powerful and long lasting. Some models show showers into Wednesday or Thursday morning. The main event starts Sunday morning and lasts into Tuesday. There is a lot of subtropical moisture and a low pressure system that is predicted to stall over us and pump in the moisture for up to 2 days. With the saturated ground and rain rates of a steady 1/2 inch or more per hour it is going to make flooding in low-living areas likely. 

Updated rain totals have not come out today, but as of yesterday they were talking about 3 to 6 inches coastal and foothills. 6 to 12 inches in the mountains and a 30% to 50% chance that coastal areas of south facing hills (us) could see 8 inches of rain and mountains 15 inches. These number were from yesterday and I will wait for the updated numbers, but this system is looking to be the Holy grail of storms for the year. 

There will be significant flooding along some creeks and rivers. At this point there is a 25% chance that the Ventura and Santa Ynez rivers will reach flood stages. A  Significant rise in level will occur and don’t be stupid to try white water rafting. You laugh, but some folks will. 

Regarding Montecito and the heavy rains. I have received a number of calls at this point. It is still too early to know how much impact there will be, but small stream flooding is likely and everyone should keep an eye on the forecast Sunday though Monday. 

This is when the heaviest rain will fall. I will update on a regular basis Sunday and Monday. 

Get prepared because you have 2 daylight days before a lot of rain falls, especially if you live in low lying  areas.

More to come, we will be making the national news

Jack Martin

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