12/20/23

Good morning,

The rain was very affective the past 2 days with good accumulation. Santa Barbara 1.75, Montecito 2.6 and KTYD tower over 5.58  inches https://www.weather.gov/lox/LAXRRMSBA

I would say that is a pretty good storm, but the real rain has not started yet. Here it is spinning tightly off the San Francisco coast https://zoom.earth/

This is moving into position to bring us heavy rain starting early this afternoon through most of Thursday. Winds will pick up from the south and blow in the mountains at 45 mile an hour. Here we will feel winds but nothing like the mountains. For today light to moderate rain this morning, then the tap opens up this afternoon and rain will be come heavy at times, for the next 24 to 36 hours. rain rates at .30 to .60 per hour. Rain totals will be 4 to 8 inches and 5 to 10 inches on south facing mountains of Santa Barbara and Santa Ynez

If and where thunderstorms occur rain rates may go more than 1 inch per hour. It is going to be a very wet period with some flooding likely.  I will be watching the rain and radar as we get into the afternoon.  Rain will continue through Thursday, then Friday we will see some showers, but the rain will begin to end. Still a chance for very light rain Saturday, but the system will likely be over until Wednesday of next week. We will be dry through the 26th of December (amen for Jack to visit with family) 

Wednesday next week the forecast gets questionable with another system. Looking at the long-term models they are calling for more rain before the 2nd of January.

Enjoy the wild weather, and by the way 5 days till Christmas and Thursday is winter solstice with the shortest day of the year. With all the rain that might be a good thing

Just so you know Cachuma is at 88.9% and will likely fill the earliest we have seen in many years https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Jack Martin