11/16/23

Good Thursday morning,

Look at Adams photo of the clouds yesterday, they looked like waves in the sky. A number of folks were asking me what type of clouds these were, so I had to go to the top and ask my friend at the national weather service. Mike’s comments “We've gotten a ton of calls and even my son called me from school wondering what they were. They are officially called Undulatus Asperatus. Basically they are a sign of unstable air aloft” 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asperitas_(cloud)

Thank you Mike.

Moving on, with the forecast.

Yes, that cutoff low is still making all weathermen scratch their heads. 

As discussed for the past week, it is just spinning out in the Pacific with little to no movement.

On Wednesday, the counterclockwise rotation did pull up some warm moist subtropical air which did give us brief rain showers and got everyone wet at times, but it really did not add up to much.

Also the winds at times really messed with the outdoor activities.

Now here we are one day forward and the cut off low is still spinning out in the pacific and pushing the rain out another 12 hours, until later Friday at this point 
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=29.68,-114.56,5z

As mentioned yesterday, today looks to me relatively dry with only the Santa Ynez mountains seeing the most rain.

Here at lower elevations 1/10 of an inch or less today and tonight. Highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Friday is now looking to be dryer again though most of the day, but Friday around 4pm the low finally starts to move eastward towards us and the real rain will finally arrive.

It now looks like Friday night will be the wettest period with rain rates of .25 to .50 per hour. Rain will likely fall into most of Saturday with rain totals of 1 to 2 inches through Saturday. 

Saturday night the system clears out and and Sunday will be dry and breezy. 

Next week,(Thanksgiving week) is shaping up to be quite nice with high pressure building in and above normal temps.

Expect some areas to have highs in the 80s and chilly nights. Thanksgiving day is also looking quite nice. 

In the meantime rain will happen, it just delayed a little longer.

Remember last week when we started talking about the never rain arrive Tuesday night, into Wednesday,  now it looks like Friday later afternoon. 

Don’t put away the rain gear and umbrellas, it is coming. 

Enjoy the dryer day, we will pick this conversation up on Friday morning.

Have a great day, time to get ready for my day job.

Jack Martin