11/14/23

By jack martin on Nov 14, 2023 at 05:34 PM

Good Tuesday morning, 

It looks like we have 1 more day of dry weather before the rain arrives. 

Looking at zoom earth you can see the low pressure system developing  well to the west in the Pacific. This will really start to sharpen and take shape over the next 24 hours.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=27.94,-123.74,5z

As mentioned, this system is a cut off low that typically has a mind of its own and it makes forecasting timing difficult. Which brings us to Tuesday at 5:30 am the 14th on November.

"what am I saying?" Well rain is on track to start on Wednesday, but it now looks like the heaviest rain is not going to occur until Friday and into Saturday. 

This is all thanks to low pressure remaining spinning off shore until it begins to move closer. So here is how it looks as of today...

Wednesday, rain will start up after 10 am and will begin light to moderate 1/4 to 1/2 inch Wednesday and Wednesday night. 

Thursday some showers, but some sun also. It appears the low will not move and just spin out in the pacific until Friday. 

Friday is now the day with the heaviest rain. Yes, back to the 1 to 3 inches part. As this low tracks closer the rain will pick up and a mild tap into subtropical moisture and bring southeast winds.

Depending on how quickly the system moves East will determine how long the rain will hang around. Right now it looks like it will continue into Saturday and end Sunday. 

This is a moving target, as the models have not really been great with timing. Time will tell us lots more. In the mean time, dry today, light rain Wednesday, lull in the action Thursday and heavy rain Friday. 

As I always said, cut off lows are like a 2 year old at the beach. You must keep one eye on them at all times, because you never know where they will wonder. 

Stay tuned, more update to come. 

Jack Martin

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