11/13/23

Good Monday morning,

Let’s start with what a great weekend it was! Sunday was fantastic as everyone got into the 80s.

As you wake up this morning you can smell and feel the change. Onshore flow is back, and cooler temps are back.

Coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and inland in the 70s. This pretty much spells the weather the next 2 days.

All models are in good agreement the next 3 days, through Wednesday. Then the models differ.

Wednesday is now looking to start off dry,  then rain will pick up from north to south Wednesday after 10am north and 4 pm south. Look for around ¼ of an inch for all by Wednesday evening.

Wednesday night through Friday rain, moderate to heavy at times. The timing is not clear at this point, because this is a cut off low sitting offshore and spinning with no movement.

https://zoom.earth/   

Wednesday night the rain should pick up intensity and Thursday should be our wettest day.

Friday rain likely, time will really tell when this cut off low really moves through. Rain totals have been going back and forth, but 1 to 3 inches is still likely. Models today are trending on the lighter side of the 1 to 3 inches.

It still is not clear when the front or cut off low will move. As mentioned in the past, a cut off low is like a 2-year-old. Wondering when and where it wants.

Enjoy typical fall weather the next 2 days before the rain arrives sometime Wednesday. Starting out lighter than picking up overnight.

Flooding's really should not going be a problem, as the ground is quite dry. This will be a good storm for this time of year, but not a January or February storm.

This will mix with a weaker atmospheric river, but the heaviest moisture will remain to the south.

Enjoy the first rain of the year, we will be in storm mode for the first time this season.

Jack Martin