11/11/23

By jack martin on Nov 13, 2023 at 05:38 PM

Good Saturday morning,

Where do we start? so much that will happen with out really knowing how much rain and exactly when it will rain. So let’s start with this weekend.

As the National weather service calls it “2 chamber of commerce days this weekend" This weekend will likely be the nicest weekend until 2024.

As it typically happens in November the overnight lows are quite chilly 36 in Santa Ynez, 44 in the foothills of SB, 52 along the coast and mark 38 at Regan's ranch.

After the sunrises the warmup will begin, and mercury will climb quickly. Highs today will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s as offshore flow is driving the heating and the cold nights.

Sunday, it only gets better. Temps will rise another 3 to 5 degrees.  just another great day.

Next week, Monday starts out with a minimal change with onshore flow returning and cooler temps.

Tuesday the real changes begin to take effect, but the rain should hold off until Wednesday.

Wednesday through Friday rain chances increase. The only problem is we still do not have a good handle on how much or when it will rain.

It looks like the low will park offshore and spin moisture into us. As it moves closer to us the rain will develop.  We are still tracking the amount of rain. Right now 1 to 3 inches.

The best way to describe this is as the national weather service did it with percentages:

"It will be dry through Tuesday. A significant weather pattern shift 
will occur mid-to-late next week. Rain will develop at some point 
between Tuesday night and Friday. Confidence is moderate in amounts 
and low in timing. There is a 70 percent chance of a 1 to 3 inch 
event, a 10 percent chance of a 3 to 6 inch event. Also, there is a 
20 percent chance of a light event with 1 inch or less. Early 
estimates show that the peak rainfall will occur sometime between 
Thursday and early Friday (this too could change with time)."

Have a great weekend and we will figure it out next week, get ready for rain if you will be affected

Jack Martin

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