11/10/23

Good Friday morning, 

A weak system is passing through which will give us cooler temps today and some high clouds. The day is starting out quite chilly with Santa Ynez at 36 degrees, Santa Barbara foothills 44 degrees and the beach areas 54 degrees. 

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=40.38,-129.13,5z/date=2023-11-10,00:20,-8

Todays highs are looking cooler at 71 degrees. 

Saturday northeast winds a weaker Santa Ana wind event will warm up day time temps to upper 70s to mid 80s depending on your location. Great weather will be all weekend long. 

Next week the first part of the week will be fair, but we start to transition to a wet pattern mid week. Right now it looks like dry Monday and most of Tuesday. The rain moves in north to south some time Tuesday afternoon to the north and late Tuesday for us in SB.
 
As mentioned yesterday, we will see rain Wednesday through Friday. However we still do not have a good handle on how much. The latest model runs have backed off on the amount of rain the last few forecast runs. What does this mean? As always predicting rain totals a week out is relied on computer models. These really can vary this far out. It will be Monday before we really have a good handle on this, when the short range models take over the predictions. 
Bottom line, we will see rain and excess of monthly averages for November. Previous model runs were calling for 3 times total monthly averages for November. Now we might see less, but still significant for any November storm. My preference is alway to start the season with a moderate rain to bring down the cobwebs, instead of wash them away. Unfortunately, I can not control the weather only report it. 

Anyway you look at it, we will see rain and we will have a great weekend.

Enjoy the weekend and we will know more by Monday

Jack Martin