3/13/23

Good Monday morning,

It was great to see the Sun on Sunday, even if it was just for a short time. The best was the longer daylight into the evening.

I even found myself out on the deck with the heaters glowing, the extended daylight felt like spring would be coming soon.

Where we are all hoping for spring, the weather gods feel differently. Today we will see relatively dry weather through the day.

This will give us time to get ready for a significant storm that has a formula for heavy rain. This one has better dynamics than the system Friday.

We have off the coast the AR (atmospheric river), good south flow, and strong rotation with this next front. This means Santa Barbara mountains will get hammered.

Are you ready for the forecast !!! As the saying goes a picture tells 1000 words, just look at the satellite move the picture to the right and you will see the AR coming in from Hawaii.

This is the fuel. look to the North as the low starts to drop  https://zoom.earth/#view=40.3,-127.9,4z/map=live with the 3 ingredients coming together look out.

Like I said earlier today is going to be dry, with only some fog or drizzle in a few locations. SLO will likely stay foggy most of the day. Highs will be in the low to mid-60s.

This morning we are starting out quite warm with most areas in the 50s, because of the marine layer, blanketing over us. We have today to get ready for the event.

As we get into tonight the low moves closer and the event will begin, It will start out with light rain overnight before the real event begins. Then from 7 am to late Tuesday night, the heavy rain arrives. It will be a wild day with rain rates of ½ inch to 1 inch per hour. With the saturated ground, the creeks will have a heavy flow. On top of that the south-facing mountains will see the greatest rain, with 7 inches possible. The coastal and foothills in Santa Barbara and Montecito will see 2 to 4 inches locally. The good news, if any is the rain will be shorter than the last system.

The bad news is rain totals will be greater. We will be in a flash flood watch ( this means flooding is possible) If it turns into a warning that means it will happen (we are not there now ) So don’t worry. It looks like the rain will taper Tuesday night and Wednesday we will begin to dry out with only some showers possible.

Thursday dry. Then Friday a weak system will come toward the central coast, hopefully, any rain will stay to the north. Time will tell us, then late in the weekend one more weak system. We are not even going to pay attention to them at this point.

If you believe the 30-day forecast we should start into a dryer period (  I do not ) Just look at what they say about tomorrow the 14^th https://www.30dayweather.com/en/d/united-states/california/santa-barbara/  obviously this has not been updated. As always, the only forecast you can begin to believe is a 7 to 10-day forecast.

If it means anything, I am hoping for 70s 😊

Get ready for hopefully the last wild event of the year.

We will send out a new update Tuesday morning or later today if it warrants.

Jack Martin