3/9/23

Good Thursday morning,

Today you all have graduated from weather school 1.0. We will now call the Atmospheric river AR ( this is way easier for Jack to type)

It is a chilly start to the day with Santa Ynez at 37 degrees, SB at 44 degrees, and Ventura at 47 degrees. Highs today will low 60s.

Just look at zoom earth, the satellite is setting us up for the next storm and the atmospheric river that comes with it.

Look at that strong low-pressure system spinning over Oregon and pulling the AR up into the pathway, aimed at the central coast. https://zoom.earth/#view=37.7,-122.1,4z/map=live

The event will start later in the day over the central coast then as always move south.

Today we will see dry during the day, then rain chances increase for us to 30% after 4 pm. The rain will start out on the lighter side this evening, then pick up as we go overnight.

Rain will start up in Ventura tonight, then in LA around midnight.

Friday we will have Game On,  as this will be the day that the AR mixes with the low and create the heavy rain. The central coast will be hit the hardest, as the AR is aimed right at SLO and Monterey counties. Rain totals in those locations are likely to be 5 to 8 inches. As the AR drops south Santa Barbara county is set up for a good rain also with 2 to 4 inches.

Rain will be heavy all day Friday then the AR will begin to break up Friday night.

Saturday is partly cloudy with light showers possible. Sunday dries, with the storm track switching to the north. The storm track should stay to the North through Monday when the next system drops over us. Confidence in how much more rain is still not clear, but 1 to 3 inches is predicted Tuesday into Wednesday.

The snow levels will be high for Friday’s system at 9000 to 10,000 feet. Snow melt and flooding is possible. Tuesday’s system the snow level drops to 7000 feet, still pretty warm.

Friday will be the day with the heaviest rain for all with 2 to 4 inches and rain rates of ½ inch to 1 inch per hour. Some flooding is possible, as the ground is still saturated.

Enjoy the dry Thursday then look out for a crazy Friday!

Jack Martin