3/10/2020

By Jack Martin on Mar 10, 2020 at 02:22 PM

Good Tuesday morning, 

Yes, the rain finally arrived. My rain alarm was walking into my office at 4am with Pearl being wet. So I knew the rain was starting.

What can we say about cut off lows. They are a forecaster pain in the ......

They tend to spin and move as they please. This one is 400 miles west of point conception now. It was forecast to be 350 miles west yesterday .50 mile makes a big difference. Regardless the rain event is now here. This of course is fueled by the subtropical moisture. This you can see with the yellow color on the satellite.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=09&length=12

It does now appear the wettest part of the atmospheric river is over the Baja. So we will not get as much rain as forecast the past few days.

All that being said, the rain will still fall. Just not as heavy. The rain peak will be noon today. Rain rates will be .25 to .50 an hour.

The rain looks also to be a little more showery then steady. Rain will fall through the night in a showery or on and off fashion.

Wednesday will still produce some light showers, but we will dry out.

By Thursday the low will be over Arizona and for the most part out of our area.....

…ok with all those words, how much rain will we get ... 

looks like Santa Barbara will still see the most due to our south facing mountains at 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Mountains can see an extra inch.

Rainfall rates will be manageable, except where a thunderstorm may occur. Thunderstorms are possible noon today into Wednesday.

Where these may hit, rates can jump to 1 inch per hour.

Friday and Saturday, there could be some light drizzle, but nothing much.

Sunday till Tuesday, another system from the north drops into the forecast area. 

Models are all over the board with this one. We will really need to wait and see where the low settles.

So we will call it a chance for rain Monday. 

Ok, that was a lot of words to say the rain is here, just not as heavy as we had hoped.

I should be a politician, and say a lot of things without really painting a clear picture.

Here is the current radar over our areas:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=radar_cr&list=VBX_7.png,VBX_6.png,VBX_5.png,VBX_4.png,VBX_3.png,VBX_2.png,VBX_1.png,VBX_0.png

…. Enjoy the rain ..... 

 

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Gerry & Ann