11/16/19
Good Saturday morning,
The light of day has arrived and it will be a nice weekend in SB, with lots of Action in the forecast next week.
Lets start with the weekend.
High pressure has built in and off shore flow will warm us up through Monday.
Santa Ana winds will blow to the south, bringing high fire danger back and hot temps. Record highs are likely Sunday in LA.
For Santa Barbara, we Just get warm weather with no wind.
Highs in the low 80s for the next 3 days. To the south, upper 80s and 90s is likely from the winds compressing.
Winds will be 30 to 50 miles an hour in the hills, Sunday will be the warmest and windiest day.
Monday is transition day.
High pressure moves out and onshore flow comes back. To the North, a cold storm system over the gulf of Alaska will work it's way south.
This has very cold air with it, but is moisture starved until it reaches Point conception, then it meets the marine layer and ocean.
This will increase the chance of rain for Gaviota and south into LA. We are near the start of this, but will likely be affected.
Rain should start up overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain totals are .25 to .75 in the LA area, with a sharp contrast of .01 to .05 north of point conception.
This is also very cold, so areas to the south can see some thunder storms. We are in the middle with rainfall somewhere in the middle.
Thursday, we clear up and a warming trend moves in for the weekend.
Also very interesting is south in Mexico. Tropical storm Raymond is going to sweep through Cabo as a tropical depression bringing rain.
You can see the storm in the gulf of Alaska and below Cabo on the satellite.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html
Here is the track of Raymond the next 5 days.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?start#contents
Our weather is starting to get interesting again. I am sure we will have lots of Newbe’s wanting to join us.
Tomorrow, I will look at El Nino updates.
Have a great weekend, it will be fantastic in SB and Santa Ynez.
Enjoy!
Just for the record, this is part of what I read and put it into my words, a lot of times with Jack’s spelling.
'Tuesday will be the transition day as the air mass switches to
onshore flow ahead of a developing cold trough of low pressure.
A shortwave trough over the western Pacific Ocean this morning
will lift out into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday night, then dig
south into the region through Tuesday. The trough will bring much
colder aloft in with the trough. While lacking in moisture, the
trough will make up for in colder air aloft. The trough will
likely carve out near Point Conception late Tuesday night and
pickup some Pacific maritime moisture. A cool and showery weather
pattern will develop between late Tuesday and Wednesday and
continue into Thursday and early Friday.
With 500 mb temperatures approaching -25 degrees Celsius,
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with the system. Brief
heavy downpours are possible with this system. ECMWF and GFS
ensembles would place storm total QPF values from near 0.1 to 0.5
inch north of Point Conception to near 0.25 to 0.75 inch south of
Point Conception. Rainfall totals with this trough will vary
widely and there is a wide spread of values in the ensemble
solutions. While confidence is low in the actual rainfall amounts
and rainfall rates, there is an outside chance that rainfall rates
could reach to near the thresholds set by USGS for debris flows
from the recent burn areas in southern California. Residents
living near the recently burned area in southern California should
monitor the latest forecasts."
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