11/16/19

By Jack Martin on Nov 18, 2019 at 04:19 PM

Good Saturday morning,

The light of day has arrived and it will be a nice weekend in SB, with lots of Action in the forecast next week.

Lets start with the weekend.

High pressure has built in and off shore flow will warm us up through Monday.

Santa Ana winds will blow to the south, bringing high fire danger back and hot temps. Record highs are likely Sunday in LA.

For Santa Barbara, we Just get warm weather with no wind.

Highs in the low 80s for the next 3 days. To the south, upper 80s and 90s is likely from the winds compressing.

Winds will be 30 to 50 miles an hour in the hills, Sunday will be the warmest and windiest day.

Monday is transition day.

High pressure moves out and onshore flow comes back. To the North, a cold storm system over the gulf of Alaska will work it's way south.

This has very cold air with it, but is moisture starved until it reaches Point conception, then it meets the marine layer and ocean.

This will increase the chance of rain for Gaviota and south into LA. We are near the start of this, but will likely be affected.

Rain should start up overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain totals are .25 to .75  in the LA area, with a sharp contrast of .01 to .05 north of point conception.

This is also very cold, so areas to the south can see some thunder storms. We are in the middle with rainfall somewhere in the middle.

Thursday, we clear up and a warming trend moves in for the weekend.

Also very interesting is south in Mexico. Tropical storm Raymond is  going to sweep through Cabo as a tropical depression bringing rain.

You can see the storm in the gulf of Alaska and below Cabo on the satellite.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html

Here is the track of Raymond the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?start#contents

Our weather is starting to get interesting again. I am sure we will have lots of Newbe’s wanting to join us.

Tomorrow, I will look at El Nino updates.

Have a great weekend, it will be fantastic in SB and Santa Ynez.

Enjoy!

Just for the record, this is part of what I read and put it into my words, a lot of times with Jack’s spelling.

'Tuesday will be the transition day as the air mass switches to

onshore flow ahead of a developing cold trough of low pressure.

A shortwave trough over the western Pacific Ocean this morning

will lift out into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday night, then dig

south into the region through Tuesday. The trough will bring much

colder aloft in with the trough. While lacking in moisture, the

trough will make up for in colder air aloft. The trough will

likely carve out near Point Conception late Tuesday night and

pickup some Pacific maritime moisture. A cool and showery weather

pattern will develop between late Tuesday and Wednesday and

continue into Thursday and early Friday.

 

With 500 mb temperatures approaching -25 degrees Celsius,

isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with the system. Brief

heavy downpours are possible with this system. ECMWF and GFS

ensembles would place storm total QPF values from near 0.1 to 0.5

inch north of Point Conception to near 0.25 to 0.75 inch south of

Point Conception. Rainfall totals with this trough will vary

widely and there is a wide spread of values in the ensemble

solutions. While confidence is low in the actual rainfall amounts

and rainfall rates, there is an outside chance that rainfall rates

could reach to near the thresholds set by USGS for debris flows

from the recent burn areas in southern California. Residents

living near the recently burned area in southern California should

monitor the latest forecasts."

 

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