Wednesday 2/13/19

By Jack Martin on Feb 13, 2019 at 03:56 PM

Good Wednesday morning, 

1 day before Valentine’s Day, in case you forgot.

I had to study the forecast a little harder today to understand what we have coming. 

So here we go... 

The rain is right off the coast. We should see rain by sunrise:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=radar_cr&list=VBX_7.png,VBX_6.png,VBX_5.png,VBX_4.png,VBX_3.png,VBX_2.png,VBX_1.png,VBX_0.png

Rain will fall steady but lighter most of the day, then taper for a bit tonight. Today rainfall totals will remain lower.

With 1/2 to 3/4 coastal, but the water shed in the Santa Ynez mountains will see 1 to 2 inches.

The start of the system has no really big rain push to it. Subtropical plum does, however, extends all the way to Hawaii. 

Tonight a slight lull in the Action, then the heavier rain will push in Thursday. 

The exact area of where the low pressure system turn in is still not clear. It appears to be south of us.

At those locations the heaviest rain will fall. The window for the rain will be 40 mile each way or the point of entry. So 40 miles south and 40 miles north. 

Those areas will receive the heaviest rainfall and totals. Rates in those areas will likely cause some flooding in areas on Thursday. 

Friday does also look to be wet, but on and off showers. More over the hills, then spreading into the coastal areas. 

Saturday looks to be the driest day, but there is still a chance of showers anywhere.

Sunday looks to be a little wetter, then Saturday with more showers.

Finally on Monday we should dry out. Looks like the beginning of the week will be dry.

As far as rain totals go... they will vary in areas but 1 to 2.5 inches coastal. 2 to 4 in the foothills.

Mountains can see 5 or so inches on east facing hills. This is between Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday and through the weekend, another 1/2 inch will fall in most areas.

As far as the wind goes, south facing mountains will see 60 mile an hour winds today. 

Snow levels will be higher at around 6000 feet.

Ok here we go.... bring on the rain.... 

I will tweak the forecast for Thursday when we figure out where the main part of the low lands on the coast. Looking like LA will see the heaviest rain Thursday.   

Enjoy more wet weather.

***UPDATE***

Take a look at this:

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html

This is the subtropical moisture field. Look at how long it is.... aimed right over us.