1/11/2019

By Jack Martin on Feb 11, 2019 at 04:38 PM

Good Monday morning, 

February is proving to be an extremely wet month and this trend will continue another week. This past weekend, everyone saw another inch of rain between the 2 storms. 

Starting out the week, we will have 2 days of dry, cold weather. Many of us are below the freezing mark this morning. Tonight is even going to be colder. There will be frost in most locations, except right along the coast Tuesday morning. Most of us will wake to frosty roofs. 

Tuesday, things begin to change. There are 2 systems aimed at us:

1. Dropping down out of Alaska, now in Canada. 

2. The other is west of the central coast moving to the east. 

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html

The southern end of the north system will combine with the system to the west and will create rain. The system to the north is quite cold, but the west system is warmer.

On top of the 2 lows is the subtropical jet. This is staged to help bring heavier rain. 

Water values with the subtropical jet is 1.5. This May not mean much to you, but this value is extremely high.

Rain will start up late Tuesday night on the central coast and will be upon us early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will be a wet day. Rain will be heavy at times.

We are looking at 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch coastal. With 2 to 4 inches in the mountains. These numbers may need to be tweaked as the system gets closer.

Snow levels with this one will be higher, 5000 to 7000 feet. 

Rain will taper off Wednesday late. Then Thursday we are looking at more rain.  As the next moisture field moves in. 

Friday and beyond is not clear at this point. Models are not agreeing with each other. 

So the national weather service is saying cloudy. That actually means nothing at this time. There is a possibility the rain can continue.

All this being said, we are in for another wet week. Rain totals will become more clear by Tuesday morning.  

In the meantime, get ready for a good soaking.

I am still betting on Cachuma hitting 60% by Saturday. 

Enjoy more rain.

We will see what the week of the 18th brings us.