2/01/2019

By Jack Martin on Feb 01, 2019 at 04:15 PM

Good morning,

Are you ready for the biggest storm, we have seen this rainy season? 

Today it is calm, with only high clouds until this evening, then the event begins.

It's funny, I was trying to think what to call this, we will go with EVENT.

Rain will start out light this evening, and will pick up as the night continues. By around 4am the event really starts. It is going to blow and rain really hard. This is also going to be a prolonged event. With every update, the weather service has increased the rain totals. If there has been any storm to be aware of in Montecito, this will be the one... 

yes, there is a flash flood watch. This means it might occur.” A warning means it is happening, at that point it is to late....” 

I expect there will be evacuation in all burn areas. The area that is most in danger are the freshly burned areas, “not in our area..”

If I lived in Montecito, this is the one I would be concerned about... There will likely be some flooding and rocks plus mud.

The good part of this is we are ready with debris basins cleared. Rain rates will be ½ inch to 1.25 inch per hour

If you live in the flood area, I would suggest a hotel for tonight... 

Here is what we are looking at... 

Light rain to start around 6pm, rain will pick up as the night goes on. By 4am the heavy rain should arrive. We are looking at 4 to 7 inches on south facing mountains.

Yes Montecito. … Also winds are going to be from the south, 50 to 60 miles in the mountains.

Saturday, the rain continues through at least mid day. LA all day. 

It now looks like we will see more rain Saturday night... after a short break.

This system will be the test. If we hold up with this one. I think life can go back to normal in the Montecito area.

We are hoping for that. 

In the mean time, pack your bags. 

Sorry to be so Frank, but that’s the way it is.. 

Let’s fill cachuma and have Montecito hold up from this powerful storm. 

That’s a win win... I like win wins. 

12 hours before the event begins. 


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html