1/31/19

Good Thursday morning Jim... it is Thursday now!

The rain is now knocking on most all of your doors. We have a nicely defined low rolling through this morning. Rain will fall for around 6 hours, then some showers. By the afternoon we will see peaks of sunshine. As nice as this system looks from the sky, it does not have a lot of moisture to tap into. 

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html

Even with lack of moisture we still have south flow, so the mountains in SB will help the totals with around an inch in the hills. For us 1/2 to 3/4 is likely. 

Rain is falling in Santa Ynez valley and north now or will be falling in our area by sunrise.

Rain will clear out in the afternoon and we will have dry weather through what appears to be most of Friday daytime hours.

Later in the afternoon and evening, the next system moves in... 

This is going to be a good one.... strong south winds of 50 miles an hour in the hills and subtropical moisture spells a lot of rain. Up to 5 inches on south facing mountains.

Coastal areas and foothills on south face ( Santa Barbara ) will see 2.5 to 4 inches.

Everyone else, 1.5 to 3 inches. Rain rates are still on track of .5 to .75 per hour. With 1 inch per hour possible.

It is going to be a good storm, but debris flow is not likely.... in Montecito.

Freshly burned areas to the south could spell a different picture.

These areas need to be watched closely as this storm arrives. Rain will fall for a 6 to 12 hour period. 

After Saturday’s rain, we will see dry weather Sunday day. Then showers Sunday night and Monday as the north flow drops over us.

The third system is not going to be a big rain maker. Especially compared to Saturday’s storm. 

Ok you are up to date.... enjoy the rain, we are well ahead of average rainfall for the year.

This will only put us further ahead.