1/11/2019

By Jack Martin on Jan 11, 2019 at 06:08 PM

Good Friday morning, 

Are you ready for some rain? Well it is around 12 hours away. 

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html

This morning you will wake up to fog or high clouds. There are clouds streaming in from the south. This will do nothing more then give us some cloud cover. 

The low is moving in later today, with rain chances beginning of the central coast this afternoon.

Rain in our area will hold off till around 6 pm. 

This system is packed with lots of energy. Combined with cold air, negative tilt and subtropical moisture it is going to be pretty juicy.

There might even be some thunder storms with this. They are supposed to stay off shore, but will likely bring downpours at times.

The peak rain times are 9 pm to 2 am for Santa Barbara Area, and midnight to 6 am in the south peak.

Rainfall rates per hour will be 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch per hour. If a thunder storm develops, rates could be higher. 

Rain will end mid morning north to south. Everyone should be rain free by the afternoon.

Sunday looks to be dry, but another system approaches Sunday afternoon. This is looking like a northern storm, with light rain at best. 

Monday through Thursday is only advertised to be wet. Models are struggling with when the rain will hit.

There are a series of systems coming our way. They used the words "A dangerous 12 hour period of rain may occur during that time."

Best bet is Wednesday at this point, but models are still all over the board.

Bottom line, we will get ready for Friday night, then see what the days beyond bring us.

Rainfall totals are still looking like 2 to 3 inches with the first system in our area. 1 to 2 south of us.

The highest rainfall will be from Refugio to Ojai. It does look like some flooding is likely, but Montecito and Ventura burn areas should handle this.

It is the freshly burned areas to the south that will be challenged. 

If anything changes, I will update later in the day. This will be fairly a quick storm, but will pack some punch. 

Have a nice day!