1/10/19 Weather Update

By Jack Martin on Jan 10, 2019 at 04:00 PM

Good Thursday morning, 

Yesterday’s rain was advertised to be on the lighter side and it was.

Where it looked stronger yesterday as it rounded point conception, it weakened.

Bottom line, we saw only 1/10 of an inch in SB. 

Moving forward, there is a lot of Action in the Pacific. We will have 2 dry days before we will have a real test. 

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html

Today, look for a nice sunny day with highs in the 60s. The best day of the week.

Friday changes begin, some clouds will begin to fill in from the south and a low drops in from the north.

This will be all the ingredients we need to have quite a rain.

Southern subtropical moisture will combine with a low. These 2 will pump in the moisture for a 12 hour period.

The target area is from Refugio to Ojai. Guess who is right in the middle. 

Yes, Montecito and Santa Barbara. Rain will begin late on Friday. Likely Friday evening. 

The central coast and Santa Ynez might see rain as early as the afternoon, but it will start out on the lighter side.

As we get into Friday night from 6pm to 6am Saturday, the action occurs.

This will bring us significant rain. Rain rates can be as high as .75 of an inch per hour.

Rain totals will be 1.5 to 2.5 inches. South facing areas could see a lot more.

FYI if you did not know, our mountains are south facing.

Rain will end Saturday morning. We will have 2 dry days.

This will be followed by rain chance during the period of Sunday night till Thursday.

Models do not have a good handle on how much and when, but we will likely see rain on and off through most of next week.

Wednesday’s system is still on track to be significant. 

Ok, you are ready for the next system. I am sure everyone in Montecito will be reading this and will be concerned.

So at this point, it looks like creeks should be able to contain the rainfall.

There will be some minor flooding, but nothing like 1/9/2018. 

If anything would change in the next 24 hours, you will hear it from me.

Enjoy the sunshine!